TerraceReserved
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Everything posted by TerraceReserved
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thehardballtimes.com Great original baseball articles on history, statistical analysis, and any other baseball material Mon-Fri. It's like Baseball Prospectus but free.
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True, but the past 26 years have nothing to do with our playoff hopes in 2008. All that matters is how good are team is now, and how good the Cubs are now. And I've seen playoff talk here, but nothing saying we will be winning the division outright, and certainly nothing about picking pitching matchups for the NLCS. -
Wow. That's embarassing that someone is typing up NLCS pitching matchups and it's not even February. It's ridiculous.
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I like Brian and Bill. Brian definitely improved as the year went on, and Bill adds a little something to the broadcasts. Some of the stuff that the two say bugs me a little bit, and Bill needs to cut back on his "still and all" but they're pretty good to listen too.
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I wonder if the Brewers outfield will revive the jump high-five after games again next year. I don't know what it was, but I liked it.
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brewguru, what you've done is exactly what I hope to do. Just keep going to 1 or 2 parks every summer, and in a 15-20 years I'll have seen 'em all. It's an awesome thing to do.
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Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez?
TerraceReserved replied to splitterpfj's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hanley's defense last year was generally regarded as terrible by every system out there. Below are his runs below average from these systems. RZR: -22 runs Dewans : -29 runs UZR: -20 runs PMR: -2 runs The only outlier there is PMR, which may just be off or might be catching something the other systems aren't, but it's in mostly in agreement that he was around 20 runs below average. And I'll put my vote up for Ramirez. He's already an offensive force and with some defensive improvement he'll be an incredibly well rounded player. -
Archive Talkin' Brewers with Jim Powell - 2/2/08 Edition
TerraceReserved replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sweet. I can't wait. It's always nice to hear some (good) Brewers talk on the radio. -
I found some good information in The Book with pitchers HR, BB, and K rates as games progress. It uses times through the order, and although pitch counts would be better, these numbers will probably work fine as a baseline for pitcher performance. Time HR% BB% K% 1 .028 .088 .168 2 .032 .082 .158 3 .033 .080 .140 For every time through the order there are about 30-35 pitches thrown, so roughly pitches 1-76 are the first 2 times through the order, and 76-100 is the third time through. For our 4 pitchers, here are their average rates for 1-76, and below them 76-100: HR% BB% K% .026 .071 .178 .044 .088 .127 Compare that to the league average list above now altered, with the first two times through the order averaged, and the 3rd time through below it: HR% BB% K% .030 .085 .163 .033 .080 .140 Wow. What we're seeing here is that our 4 pitchers gave up a whole lot more HR than league average, walked more when the league average actually goes down, and strikeout significantly less batters than the league through pitches 76-100. What to attribute that to, I'm still not sure, but those are pretty significant numbers. My geuss (and hope) is that this was all just bad luck, but 4 pitchers on the same team, all going through this very noticeable decline late in the game? I really don't know.... .
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I found some good information in The Book with pitchers HR, BB, and K rates as games progress. It uses times through the order, and although pitch counts would be better, these numbers will probably work fine as a baseline for pitcher performance. Time HR% BB% K% 1 .028 .088 .168 2 .032 .082 .158 3 .033 .080 .140 For every time through the order there are about 30-35 pitches thrown, so roughly pitches 1-76 are the first 2 times through the order, and 76-100 is the third time through. For our 4 pitchers, here are their average rates for 1-76, and below them 76-100: HR% BB% K% .026 .071 .178 .044 .088 .127 Compare that to the league average list above now altered, with the first two times through the order averaged, and the 3rd time through below it: HR% BB% K% .030 .085 .163 .033 .080 .140 Wow. What we're seeing here is that our 4 pitchers gave up a whole lot more HR than league average, walked more when the league average actually goes down, and strikeout significantly less batters than the league through pitches 76-100. What to attribute that to, I'm still not sure, but those are pretty significant numbers. My geuss (and hope) is that this was all just bad luck, but 4 pitchers on the same team, all going through this very noticeable decline late in the game? I really don't know.... .
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What I'd really like to see is whether there was a larger-than-normal FIP dropoff for pitches 76-100 - if there was, then I think we'd be justified in blaming Yost for having too slow a hook. Wouldn't it be possible to discover this simply by looking at HR, K's and BB's from pitches 76-100? If those rates are worse than in pitches 1-76, that would mean a worse FIP, as FIP is just a compilation of those numbers in ERA's format. I don't have BR.com's PI, but I think it'd be interesting if that was looked into. And Brawndo, excellent overview on BABIP.
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What I'd really like to see is whether there was a larger-than-normal FIP dropoff for pitches 76-100 - if there was, then I think we'd be justified in blaming Yost for having too slow a hook. Wouldn't it be possible to discover this simply by looking at HR, K's and BB's from pitches 76-100? If those rates are worse than in pitches 1-76, that would mean a worse FIP, as FIP is just a compilation of those numbers in ERA's format. I don't have BR.com's PI, but I think it'd be interesting if that was looked into. And Brawndo, excellent overview on BABIP.
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NL Focus on OF from Sportingnews
TerraceReserved replied to TheBrewer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Huh. My main man Corey doesn't get the respect he deserves. Last year he outperferformed Lee and Soriano, but he's not in the top 5 outfielders. -
Pretty hard to argue that but to think he is going to hit like 280 with 20-25 HRs is not going to happen unless he gets hurt. Who said that? Ennder and igor simply said that his offensive production was most likely gonna decrease a bit, but no one stated 20-25 HR.
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How does Japanese baseball transfer to MLB?
TerraceReserved replied to BREWCREW5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nate Silver has a post on this at the Unfiltered blog over at BP. http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699 PECOTA has Fukodome with a pretty impressive line. As far as I know thats the only projection system thats tried Fukodome. PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG EqA VORP WARP 465 80 30 4 15 58 70 94 9 3 . 289 .401 .504 .303 29.2 4.4 -
Brawndo, great post. You summed up my exact feeling on this matter better than I could have expressed it. If switching the guys around the field can save us 3-5 wins, you have to do it. No matter what.
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Exactly Rydogg. I still have not given up complete hope that a Rolen deal will go down. St. Louis knows what they offered was ridiculous, and as time goes by they might soften up on it.
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Those number for Florida were compiled using PBP data. Every ball hit into the field of play is given a specific zone, trajectory, and speed. Then using that information you can see how many balls were turned into outs in every play in the field. Lets say a hard hit ground ball hit in one of the zones between 2nd and 1st is made 60% of the time, and Rickie only gets it 50% of the time, and there were 20 balls hit like that over the year. So then Rickie would be credited with not making 2 plays that an average 2nd basemen would have. Then runs are attributed to those plays. A single on average is worth .77 runs above an out, so thats 1.44 runs that he gave up. To take it farther people on base and outs are then attributed to tweak the value of the hit given up.
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FIP itself is short for Fielding Independent Pitching, and it uses a pitchers walk, strikeout, and HR rates and applies an average hit rate and creates a number on the scale of ERA that shows how well they pitched with no luck involved. xFIP I believe adjusts for the pitchers HR/FB ratio.
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Matsui had the 4th best RZR (.886) in both leagues last year for a left fielder. His OOZ is pretty low, but he seems to be a pretty decent fielder. I would be all for trading to get him, but I have no idea how much interest the Yanks have in Capuano, Vargas, or some of our extra bullpen guys. My guess is not too much.
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The two games at MP are on the Friday and Saturday right before the season opens. oops. thats my bad. now that i actually think about it, i'm pretty sure thats what they did in 2001 also when MP first opened.
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awesome. it will be nice to get a brew game at MP a month before the regular season starts.
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Hall needs to stay in CF so that we can see if he improves from last year. Why should we even chance it at this point to see if Hall improves next year? If we know that Bruan is athletic and can potentially make the change, why wait and cost our team runs? Hart is a slight upgrade over Hall maybe but with Braun in LF we would have another guy trying to learn a spot. Hart was +13 plays in the outfield this year, while Hall was between 0 and -10. Thats a pretty sizable upgrade. This does not take into consideration that Hall is at best an average 3B Last year at short Hall was +18 plays, and short is generally considered a harder position to field. Meanwhile, Braun was -41 plays at third. Sure, we can expect marginal improvement from both these guys. Heck, they could both turn out to be fantastic fielders. But IMO, whats best for the team now is moving Braun to left or right and Hall to 3rd. This could literally help save the team 1-3 wins in a year. Whether we platoon Gross with a mystery lefty masher, or pickup a solid corner outfielder, my guess is both would be short term, thus clearing up an outfield space for Laporta when he's ready.
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No news on a LF, however if a serious 3b option comes available, Braun will move to LF. (He wants to as does the organization) Ugh, why is it that Doug isn't seriously considering moving Hall to third and Bruan to left? To me, it's a no brainer. Braun won't hurt the defense nearly as much in left, a much easier postion, Hart has proved he can play center, and Hall can play above average infield defense. It doesn't make sense that Melvin wouldn't be doing this. I'm sure Bruan will see some marginal improvement, but its for the better of the team to make those switches.
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Suppan's value in this FA Market
TerraceReserved replied to ILuvDaBush's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Was it any surprise that he allowed a lot more hits? He went from having an above average defense on the Cards to a terrible defense with us. Our bad defense resulted in a load more of base hits for all of our pitchers.
