LouisEly

You mentioned Jordan Beck earlier as a guy who probably won't make it to MIL at #27. Jordan Beck's BB & K rates in 2022: 12.5%, 21% Ivan Melendez's BB & K rates in 2022: 16.5%, 16% Yes, Beck has more defensive value, but If Melendez will strikeout 150 times in a season, Beck will strikeout 180.

Keep in mind that when prices started rising a year ago the unemployment rate was still 6%. The unemployment rate actually rose slightly from April to May of last year and was mostly stagnant from March-June, so there was concern that raising rates would cause an increase in unemployment. The government needed to get people back to work so that they didn't have to have another stimulus. In 1994 it was an easier call because the unemployment rate had been steadily declining and the peak unemployment rate after the 1991-1992 recession was half of the peak unemployment rate in 2020. Oil prices also started falling in October of last year, so there was reason to believe that inflation would subside. Then Russia.

#27 - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State; Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State; Drew Gilbert, CF, Tennessee #63 - Brycen Mautz, LHP, San Diego; Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson; Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina #72 - Jacob Reimer, 3B, HS; Bradley Loftin, LHP, HS; Ivan Melendez, 1B, Texas #102 - Colby Holcombe, RHP, CC; Trey Lipscomb, 3B, Tennessee; Gavin Kilen, SS, HS #132 - Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State; Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, HS; Cade Hunter, C, Virginia Tech #162 - Luc Lipcius, 1B, Tennessee (senior sign), Matt Wood, C, Penn State, Cory Lewis, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara #192 - Zach Morgan, C, Fresno State; Steven Zobac, RHP, Cal; Orion Kerkering, RHP, South Florida

I don't foresee a dramatic drop in oil prices for a long time. There is a lot of pressure on Europe to divest away from Russian oil/gas and it will need to come from somewhere. I heard all but two OPEC countries are maxed out on production with Saudi Arabia being one of the two which gets into other political tensions. Even if the economy slows down, China is still getting back on line which will increase demand. Oil may drop under $100, but I don't think it will see under $80 for years. Right now the US has over 700 oil rigs online and climbing, but that is still less than half of how many were online in 2014. If more rigs come online that will help pipelines even if prices drop. And the US dipped into their oil reserve and at some point will need to restock it. I moved some things around to Energy Transfer. It's down 10% over the last two days. Several analysts expect it to double to $20 in a year or so, and they've said their goal is to increase the dividend to well over $1.00 by end of year. Right now it's yielding almost 8% on a dividend of $0.80.

Sort of agree with you FTC. The housing market having a big slowdown is going to help with commodity prices - lumber, oil byproducts, etc. Also labor. The quotes I've been getting for rebuilding my rooftop deck are 50% higher or more than the quotes I got three years ago. A slowdown in housing construction and building projects will help inflation, which is driving the instability in the market. Companies that serve the lower end of the economy will get hit hard. But what we've seen the last few years is the the lower end of the economy doesn't drive the economy. Once summer is over and the trips that people booked months ago are taken, travel and hospitality will get hit in the fall. That reduction in demand should help gas prices. Inflation may increase the labor participation rate. That will go a long way in filling needed jobs, the labor shortage, rising labor costs, and sustaining the economy from going into recession. Oil prices are the big thing. Gas prices drive the cost of almost all tangible goods as they need to be shipped. Seems like there are similarities to 2008 when all other investments were tanking so investors piled their money into oil futures which shot up gas prices.

That, and in baseball you can't trade up or down. If you don't think a guy will be there with your next pick you have to take him. Maybe a guy you project to go later but before your next pick at $500k below slot is a better overall draft strategy execution than BPA who you know is going to want over slot.

UW-Madison has a supply chain management program, both MBA and undergrad. Maybe consider an intern from the MBA program?

That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached. Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.

So how do you expect someone like Braun, who was the 5th overall pick in the draft, and Fielder, who was the 7th overall pick in the draft, to be available with the 27th overall pick in the draft? How many guys like them are available in any draft? And BTW, Fielder is 5'11".

It helps if you read a scouting report: At 5-foot-8, Williams might be the smallest player on our Draft rankings, but he's also a favorite gut-feel guy for a lot of scouts. One crosschecker called him the best hitter on the summer showcase circuit, where he raked despite an injury to his right shoulder. The Mississippi State recruit could factor into the first round of the Draft, especially to a club that thinks he can stay at shortstop. Kirby Puckett was 5'8".

Looking at gas prices and reminding myself that I've had to go into an office for work once since March 16th, 2020.

If Wisconsinite Connor Prielipp is still there, do they take a chance on him? Does his injury history push him down to the Brewers? Pipeline has him at #24. The Brewers like up-the-middle guys so you can't rule out Zach Neto or Frelick-clone Drew Gilbert. Speaking of clones, there's Ethan Small clone Cooper Hjerpe, who in 84 IP this season has given up 57 hits, walked 17 (1.8/9 IP, and has improved every year), and struck out 135 (14.5/9 IP) against Pac-12 competition. If I'm handicapping it, I'm ranking them in order as Campbell, Hjerpe, Gilbert, then Neto with Prielipp as my "if he's still available". If I have a "don't be surprised by" guy, it would be Hjerpe's teammate Jacob Melton.

MLB Pipeline currently has Campbell at #34. From their scouting profile: Hitters just don't seem to see the ball well against Campbell, who has a 6-foot-7 frame and deceptive mechanics with an unusual approach angle. His fastball sits around 91 mph and touches 96, and it features high spin rates and running action that generate a lot of harmless contact. He has a pair of solid secondary pitches that he'll use against both left-handers and right-handers: an upper-70s changeup with even more horizonal movement than his heater and a mid-70s curveball that creates a lot of empty swings and groundouts. Not seeing the ball well... deceptive mechanics... high spin rates... a lot of harmless contact... solid changeup... sounds a lot like the Brewers type of pitching prospect. On the season in 94 IP Campbell has given up 73 hits, walked 23 (2.2/9 IP) and K'd 133 (12.7/9) for a Power-5 Oklahoma State. I would not at all be upset with him as the pick at #27.

Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.

Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.

One of my best friends works for BB7. If you're interested, send me a PM and I can connect you.

I have xFinity/Comcast, and if you're an internet customer you can get this little streaming box that has many of the streaming service apps. They include free acceess to Peacock Premium, so I got to watch Wrestlemania for free. I've started watching Nitro in 1996 and have just gotten to the Bash at the Beach where Hogan turned (but I've been skipping through most of the matches, except for ones involving John Tenta and the Disco Inferno).

Agree with Zurch. I'm not an engineer, but the job I've had the last 15 months consists of responsibilities and skills that I've done in bits and pieces throughout my career but never all at the same time and some of them I hadn't done in ten years. I took a shot at it because I thought the list of people who have market research, sales, CRM data/reports/dashboards, and people management experience is a short list to begin with, much less finding one who wants to live in a non-major-market. What I think put me over is that in a presentation they asked me to describe myself and what I would bring to the team and I showed an image of a Swiss Army Knife; I said that if you need the best Philips screwdriver that's not going to be me, but if you need a Philips screwdriver, flathead screwdriver, paring knife, bottle opener, and tweezers all in one person I'm it. They offered me within 48 hours after the interview and more salary than what the recruiter told me they were looking to pay. Bill Belicheck supposedly says, "Don't tell me what a guy can't do - tell me what he can do." You may not be able to do everything in a job description, but focus on what you can do and show how you have learned new skills.

I find it funny that for all of the squawking about drafting a TE, they brought in more tryout long snappers than drafted, undrafted, and tryout TEs combined. They like their TE room a lot.

That's exactly it - you can't predict injuries, and you (for the most part) can't predict what guys are going to do when they get a little money in their pocket. However, I think the tea leaves were starting to read what George Pickens is going to do with a little bit of money in his pocket and thus one reason why the Packers moved up to get Watson. (They also spent a 7th round pick that year on a DT they converted to a 104-game starter at offensive guard who has a higher career wAV than Irvin.)

Trey Sterling was a starter in 2019 and 2020 but was injured most of 2021. Didn't run well at their pro day. Must have hated school because he certainly was eligible for another season which could have really helped him. Keke Chism was a star at FCS Angelo State before transferring to Missouri. Typical Packers outside receiver at 6'4", 209. Also didn't run well at their pro day. B.J. Baylor was a starter for only one season, but it was an impressive one. Averaged almost 6 ypc. No pro day info that I can find. Ellis Brooks was a 2-year starter with mediocre pro day results. Cole Schneider played in 47 games, almost all of them at guard but one start at center last season. 29 reps on the bench at pro day. George Moore IV started 6 games at LT for Oregon last year and 7 at LG. Started all seven games in 2020 at LT. 82.6 pass blocking grade from PFF. Decent 3-cone (7.6) for his size. Alex Spillum was a 2-year starter with decent pro day numbers (4.52 40, 6.96 3-cone). Four interceptions in 2020. Anthony Turner was a NAIA All-American. 6'4", 220. Raleigh Texada is listed at 5"10", 188. Supposedly ran ~4.4 at their pro day. Caliph Brice had an impressive pro day - ran a 4.5 40 and 37.5" vertical. Played through injuries in 2021, missed a few games. Tyler Goodson ran a 4.42 at the Combine. A bit on the small size though (5'9", 197), not enough power to drive through contact. Chaunce Manac had a big senior season for Louisiana, with 10.5 sacks, 14.5 TFL, and 2 forced fumbles. Decent 40 time (4.66) but poor 3-cone (7.75). Not a whole lot to get excited about. Barring injuries, I don't see any of these guys making the final 53 except for possibly Manac.

They've reportedly signed Chauncey Manac as a UDFA. I was going back and forth between him and Aaron Mosby for my UDFA edge rusher. Bah!

Caleb Jones is a poor man's Daniel Faalele. Listed at 6'8", 362. I don't think he can stay at tackle unless the Pack can get him to drop at least 30 lbs. Didn't impress me at all in the few Indiana games I watched.

They addressed their needs. 3 WR (two of them in the first four rounds), 3 OL, 2 DT (one early and one late), and a legit 3-down game-changing ILB who should be able to cover even the best TEs. Only criticism is giving up a bit too much for Watson (should have asked for at least a 5th back from MIN) and not grabbing a developmental CB. A- for sure.

A bit surprised they didn't grab a developmental corner somewhere as they only have seven on the roster. I'd expect them to grab a couple UDFA corners and at least one UDFA safety.