LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Part of their formula is snap % and snaps played. It looks like that is hurting Willis in their projection, but that is because the snap % they are using is retrospective. The actual pick awarded, IIRC, is based on snaps and snap % the season after they sign, which is how GB might get a comp pick for Eric Wilson and Josh Myers. Neither of their contracts signed would have netted them a comp pick, but because they both played such a high % of snaps last season, it boosted their points total to likely in the top 32 and thus the projected comp pick for both of them. Assuming Willis is the starter and gets 90% of snaps (he got 12% of snaps last year with Love's injuries), I wouldn't bet on that being a 4th round pick just yet.
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If you're going to sign a FA that will negate a draft pick, you want to make sure it's a player who can be signed to a multi-year deal and is young enough that he can be expected to be a productive player for multiple years. A guy who fits that profile will likely be expensive and may not fit into their cap and/or plans for extending players (Kraft, etc.). Just as you wouldn't trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for a one-year stop-gap, you don't want to sacrifice a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for a one-year guy either. In today's NFL where starting QBs are getting $50M, WR's getting $30M, and guards getting $20M, minimum salary draft picks to fill out a roster and provide quality depth are incredibly valuable assets.
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Projections are two 3rds (Willis, R. Walker) and two 4ths (Doubs, Q. Walker). That would make three 3rds and four 4ths total. Pretty safe bet that GB will be trading up in 2027.
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And the Packers usually do not guarantee anything other than the signing bonus. So my guess is that it's really a one-year deal to see if he can improve enough with a full off-season of full-time work at center to warrant a second year. If he gets cut after one year, then it's about a $7.3M cap hit. Not great, but not anything that will cripple them.
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Not much to write home about this year, but couldn't have written a better way to end the season. Really surprised that the fans didn't storm the court. That's one where a court storming was warranted. Suck it, Hurley.
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The 3 amigos with Kaufman-Renn and Smith. So glad all three of those punks are gone. Not sure who pushes off with their forearm more, Smith or Kaufman-Renn.
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The market for Walker is projected to be ~$14M/year, so to get his replacement for half of that without having to sign a FA who may negate the comp pick for Walker is one lens to view this. Wooden wasn't going to start - it was going to be a FA/Pick at 1-tech and Wyatt at 3-tech with Brooks the pass rush specialist. Wooden was also going to be a FA after the season and Franklin is under contract for 2 years. Probably an indication that they've already had preliminary discussions with agents for DTs who have already been released (if they've already been released it is not tampering). (IIRC, I had Franklin to the Packers in the 7th round in my 2018 mock but I can't find it.)
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He made the Pro Bowl in 2024. But yeah, we should judge a players' entire career based on a half season. He finished 18th among all edge rushers in pressures last year with 54, Must have been one helluva first seven games.
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Dude has 46.5 sacks in 7 seasons and had 7.5 last year, but because he didn't have a sack the second half of the season and because he isn't Micah Parsons he sucks. The Reddit sub isn't what is hysterical.
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And who would that be? Either teams aren't going to let those guys hit free agency, or those guys don't want to kick outdoors in northern climates (i.e., Green Bay). The only reason McManus came here was because other teams wouldn't touch him due to the prior sexual assault allegations. If they want one, they are going to have to take a flier on a draft pick. But without the 1st and a lot of depth that needs to be addressed, I don't know if they'll take one. I like the kicker from Iowa, but I don't know if he'll be an upgrade right away.
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Not if they were told to him under the condition that he can't report specifics. How do you think journalism works? How do you think journalist get people to tell them these things? They negotiate with them on what they can and cannot say. That's how they get jurors to talk after a big court case - they negotiate what they can and cannot say. And what do you think would happen if a journalist published something a source told them they couldn't? At the minimum, that source would never talk with them again. In a small community like college football GMs, word would get around very quickly and nobody would talk to Nakos again.
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Welcome back. In a vacuum, that's the right answer. Up against the cap, without a 1st round pick, and with depth needing to be addressed at other positions, it's not that easy. The metrics showed that Hobbs played well in the slot. He wasn't good on the outside, but his overall PFF grade ranked 60th out of 114 CBs, so to end up middle of the pack he had to have been good in the slot (other advanced metrics back that up). Problem is they already have Bullard there (overall PFF rank of 49th out of 114). If they didn't have Bullard, there likely isn't any talk of moving on from Hobbs. If they can draft a guy who can play both guard and center (I'm looking at you, Pat Coogan) with a cheap FA veteran guard, I think Banks is the easiest to move on from. CB isn't very deep in this draft, so I don't know that there are many outside options better than the guys they have (Nixon and Valentine ranked in the upper 40s) and those few FAs are going to be expensive. The problem is if they move on from both but then get skunked in the draft... then what?
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Since when have people stopped leaking things behind the scenes that they shouldn't?
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As someone who has an advanced degree specializing in market research and who literally composes surveys for a living as part of my job, I can tell you that unless you know the exact questions and how they are worded you cannot come to this conclusion based on what was reported. I have seen survey results interpreted in many interesting and very inaccurate ways. Edit: as a professional market researcher, that this survey was taken in-season makes it rife for bias. Given that this was taken mid-season, what if (and this is my hypothesis) the survey was distributed right after the Carolina loss or the Philly loss (back to back losses where a total of 17 points were scored)? How would players respond to that survey then compared to, say, the week after they beat the Bears in Week 14 (after back to back wins against division rivals CHI and DET)? Both would induce bias because of emotional swings. Asking about the head coach without the full season of data, particularly when emotions after a win or loss could heavily influence responses, is poor research. You can ask about facilities, child care, etc., things that aren't really going to change from week to week. But not your direct leader. That needs to be done after the season when emotions are level and you can reflect with objectivity.
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Aaaaannnndddd the markets finished flat today.
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Speaking of inflation, the producer price index (PPI) came in hot last week, but it was entirely driven by services. Goods actually declined in price, which correlates to the data source that I have which showed a decline in consumer goods prices vs one year ago. The source that I have access to historically has tracked 93% to the PCE.
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This. It's a lot easier kicking FGs off of turf in Dallas (or in Detroit, or in Minneapolis) than outdoors in Green Bay.
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I think if any team lost four of their six or seven best players they would struggle. Kansas City lost Mahomes for the last four games of the season, Trent McDuffie the last three (but had a healthy Kelce, Chris Jones, and Humphrey) and they went 6-11.
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I would be willing to bet that the Packers offered Myers more than 1/$2M (which is what he signed for; the $3.6M counts $1M in incentives earned for playing time and part of the signing bonus for his contract extension that he signed during the season). The reason that Myers got 1/$2M is because he and his camp over-estimated his market and thought that he was going to get more and chose free agency. In retrospect, Myers was right, he should have gotten more. His 1/$3.6M payout on its own would not have netted the Packers a comp pick; but because he started all 17 games and played 100% of their offensive snaps the formula boosted him above his salary and he will likely end up being among the top 32 that netted a comp pick. He turned that into a 2/$11M extension with $6.2M guaranteed. (His overall PFF grade was 52.9, so Packers fans would still be complaining about him and calling for the Packers to cut him and draft a center.)
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ESPN put up a lengthy, in-depth article about free agents (this one focusing on offense). What they said about Rasheed Walker is very interesting: If there's a player who isn't a household name in position to get paid more than the vast majority of fans expect this offseason, it's Walker. There are at least four teams that should be in the market for a starting left tackle this offseason. Walker is the only one available. He's 26 years old and hasn't missed a game in three years while protecting Jordan Love's blind side in Green Bay.... ... And yet, there have to be some flashing red lights here. The Packers don't seem all that concerned about letting Walker waltz out the door. He has committed 27 penalties over three years as a starter, including seven holding calls. At the same time, Walker ranks fifth in pass block win rate over the past three years, and his sack allowed rate (1.2%) and quick pressure allowed rate (2.0%) are both better than league average when we look at left tackles with 1,000 or more pass-blocking snaps over that time. In a league where teams can never have enough at tackle, Walker is going to attract truly high-end offers in a couple of weeks. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47989627/2026-nfl-free-agency-best-players-available-offense-contract-tiers-market-barnwell
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They better spend a lot of time in practice playing against matchup zone defense because they are going to see a lot of it from here on out.
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At 65 years old, maybe it was his choice to want to take a step back.
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Kick coverage has been their strength - they ranked in the top 10 in both last year. As for FG blocking... on the first FG blocked, their directive was to use backups whenever possible to give the starting OL another play to rest. That came back to bite them when Brant Banks (the backup OL who was up from the practice squad, not Aaron Banks the starting LG) missed his assignment. So, then they started using starters more on the FG protection unit... but on the second block, three of their starters were out with injuries so they had to use backup OL.
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It's not just Green Bay. 11 teams replaced their ST coordinator this offseason - that's over 1/3rd. Most of it was just a Lazy Susan of coodinators rotating around to a different team (9 of them had previously been a NFL special teams coordinator at some point in the past).
