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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    This is a bit of recency effect bias. From 2011-2015 Burnett was a very good player. Not All-Pro or Pro Bowl, but a very good player. In that time span he created 13 turnovers (7 forced fumbles, six interceptions) and had over 100 tackles every year from 2011-2014, even in only 13 games in 2013. He wasn't as good in 2016, but was still a good player, contributing two interceptions, nine passes defensed (second only to 2011), and three sacks. Unfortunately the injuries of 2015 and 2017 took their toll and by the end of his tenure in GB he was no longer the player he was, and the tail end of Dom Capers didn't make him look any better. But to say he was just a guy is not accurate, certainly not from 2011-2015.
  2. LouisEly
    Glad they double-dipped at OLB/Edge, because things weren't looking like they were going to work out draft-wise. Josh Allen and Montez Sweat both played their way up draft boards between the last few games of the season and the Senior Bowl/Combine and are likely top-8 picks now. Polite bombed at the combine and now has additional question marks. That just leaves Ferrell as a possibility in the first round, then developmental guys in the 3rd/4th. Of note is what they haven't addressed yet in free agency - DL and TE, positions that are deep and talented in the draft. They'll give Graham one more year to mentor a couple of young guys, but he's gone after 2019; I'll be very surprised if they don't draft a guy on day 1 or 2 to learn for a year under Graham. They'll need another OL in the draft, but can wait until the 4th for some developmental guys.
  3. LouisEly
    1) Cap number is salary/bonuses plus prorated signing bonus. The signing bonus has already been paid - there is no way to "save it", it's just accounted for evenly over the life of the contract. B) When a player is released or traded, the entire remaining portion of the signing bonus gets allocated towards the cap for that year - it's no longer prorated, and it does not go to the new team. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/jimmy-graham-6603/ Graham's cap number for 2019 is $12,666,667 - the breakdown is $3,450,000 in salary, $5,300,000 in roster bonus, $250,000 in workout bonus, and $3,666,667 in prorated signing bonus. The signing bonus has already been paid; what has not been paid, and thus the only thing that can be "saved", is the salary and bonuses which equal $9,000,000. If the Packers release him, they will have to allocate all of the remaining prorated signing bonus towards that year's cap, which is 2/3rds of the signing bonus ($3,666,667 for 2019 and another $3,666,667 for 2020). Thus they will save $9,000,000 in salary and bonuses, but will incur a charge of $7,333,333 in dead cap because of the signing bonus, thus only will free up $1,666,667 of cap space. Where you're getting caught up is the signing bonus - it is a sunk cost, allocated evenly over the life of the contract because of NFL accounting rules.
  4. LouisEly
    Correct. The signing bonus ($11M) is allocated across the entire contract length (3 years, so $3,666,666 per year) so cutting him after this season only results in a dead cap hit in 2020 of $3.67M. His cash value next year is $8M, mostly tied up in salary ($7.45M), so they can cut him after this season and free up $4.33M in cap space. Mathieu to the Chiefs for 3/$42M. Weddle is looking better and better.
  5. LouisEly
    Adam Humphries reportedly to the Titans, 4/$36M. That's about what I was figuring. He's from South Carolina and went to Clemson, so maybe he wanted to stay in the southeast. And apparently DeSean Jackson will be traded back to the Eagles, essentially for nothing (a swap of 6th and 7th round picks). Kenny Vaccaro re-ups with Tennessee. A lot of my prospective Packers moves are not materializing.
  6. LouisEly
    Cutting Graham would only free up $1.67M in cap space. He has $9M in salary + roster/workout bonus in 2019, but would take a $7.33M cap hit by releasing him. You won't get equivalent talent for $1.67M.
  7. LouisEly
    Stealing from a division rival always has extra value - you get stronger, they get weaker, and the player can lend you some insights as to their scheme/tendencies (especially if he has a grudge). I was leaning towards Weddle -I think he'll be a better value on a 2-year deal. Earl Thomas still out there too. Complete regime change here - coach, most of coaching staff, and GM gone, so any lingering hard feelings should be minimized. He wasn't worth the $8M in cash salary he was due, so not surprised. Frees up ~$5.3M in cap space for them. Lots of good guards available in free agency, no need to spend a high draft pick on one. I think the best deals in free agency are the guys who are in their early/mid 30's and can be had for reasonable 1-2 year deals. Build your core through the draft, fill the holes through free agency. Spending big in free agency usually doesn't work well (Reggie White a very notable exception).
  8. LouisEly
    It seemed like a nice, safe neighborhood to me. Looks like a lot of development in the last few years. There is an area called The Yards Park that has several restaurants right on the river including a wine bar that appeared to be very popular. There is a Gordon Biersch, Buffalo Wild Wings, Top of the Yards rooftop bar, and a number of other places. Not the hottest area in town, but not a bad place by any stretch of the imagination to hang out before or after the game.
  9. LouisEly
    You could also say that if Augmon had not played with LJ, Anderson Hunt, and Greg Anthony that he would have scored a lot more. I don't think it would have made a difference in rebounds though.
  10. LouisEly
    List of players who have 2000 career points, 1000 career rebounds, 400 career assists: Oscar Robertson (3 seasons), Larry Bird (3 seasons), Danny Ferry, Stacey Augmon, John Konchar, Ethan Happ. Add in 200 career steals: Bird, Augmon, Konchar, Happ (didn't keep track of steals when Robertson played) Add in 100 career blocks: Augmon, Happ If UNLV hadn't made so many Final Fours, Augmon wouldn't be on the list because he had 2011 career points and 1005 career rebounds. Augmon played in 145 games, Happ did it in 134.
  11. LouisEly
    I would hope that is the case, as if it's a roster limit then that will really inhibit young guys getting valuable major league experience in September. Part of me did wonder if that was a ploy by the player's union to deliberately restrict development of young players. If the younger players have less opportunity to show what they can do at the major league level, then it means less confidence in younger players and may increase demand to sign veteran free agents. But I think Paul is correct, and it is how many guys can be active for a game. Along those lines, I'd support the 26-man roster more if it meant only 25 active guys per game. That being said, deactivating yesterday's starting pitcher will be the standard and it will still mean an extra available body. Could come in valuable in days after extra innings games where more than one pitcher is unavailable, and could eliminate the AAA-majors shuttle which isn't easy on players (ok, go pack your bags, you're going to a different city right now for an undetermined amount of time).
  12. LouisEly
    The draft is loaded with edge rushers (Allen, Sweat, Burns, Polite, Ferrell in the first round, then in the 2nd/3rd you have D'Andre Walker, Ximines, Winovich, Ferguson, etc.), but there is very little in the draft at safety. For me, Earl Thomas and Collins are at the top of my wish list. I'd bet that one of Sweat/Burns is there at #12, and Polite and Ferrell could be had with a trade down (or trade up from #30). Polite's lackluster combine plus the character concerns could easily push him down to #30. In addition to his pass rushing skills he led the nation in forced fumbles. He could be a steal at #30.
  13. LouisEly
    It would free up only ~$3M in cap space. If they release him the cap hit is $11,100,000 - the remaining pro-rated part of his signing bonus ($3.7M per year for three years). His cap hit for 2019 is $14,437,500, which is his cash payout (salary and roster/workout bonuses) of $10,737,500 plus the pro-rated part of his signing bonus ($3.7M). While he is an injury risk, I don't think they are going to find a player with his upside in free agency for $3.3M/year. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/nick-perry-9838/ If they designated him as a post-June 1st cut the cap hit this year would only be $3.7M, but all that does is kick the rest of the dead cap ($7.4M) down the road to next year and after June 1st most if not all of the good free agents will have been signed and the cap space probably could only be used to extend current players or acquire a player via trade. I think the most likely scenario is that they renegotiate his deal and replace the salary & roster/workout bonus with a smaller guaranteed salary. If they cut him, he will make nowhere near $10.7M on the free market, so a guaranteed salary of $6M - freeing up $4.7M in cap space - might be appealing as he would be lucky to get more than 1/$3.5M as a free agent.
  14. LouisEly
    Yes. Look around for the rumor that connects Hornibrook, Edwards, and Hornibrook's first concussion. I'm betting against that. Here are combine numbers for two well-known guys around here: David Edwards: 5.28 40-yard, 25.5 vertical, 99 broad, 7.69 3-cone, 4.77 20-yard shuttle, passed on bench Jason Spriggs: 4.94 40-yard, 31.5 vertical, 115 broad, 7.70 3-cone, 4.44 20-yard shuttle, 31 reps Spriggs actually was a 2nd round pick. Add to that a lot of bad tape on Edwards this year. I have Edwards going in the 5th round, and that's about what NFL.com has him graded as. The only reason he has a chance to go higher than the 5th is because this is a weak draft class for OTs, but I'd bet that he isn't drafted until day 3.
  15. LouisEly
    Have you ever been to Plymouth Rock?
  16. LouisEly
    There is a rumor going around that connects David Edwards, Alex Hornibrook, and the cause of Hornibrook's first concussion, and if true it is the type of thing that could easily lead to both of them being told to leave before they get kicked off the team and could lead to Hornibrook losing the locker room if he stays. I hope it isn't true. That being said, there are a lot of things that are coincidental here.
  17. LouisEly
    I'd rather sign 26-year-old Adam Humphries as a free agent or send a 6th round pick to Tampa for DeSean Jackson.
  18. LouisEly
    It is better than it gets credit for. It's the only league in D1 where every team has an overall record >.500.
  19. LouisEly
    1) Saw a stat that said of the last 13 teams to have the #1 or #2 ranked farm system, 12 of the 13 have made the playoffs within two years of that ranking. Don't know whose rankings, but the Padres are generally considered to have either the #1 or #2 ranked farm system. B) If the Padres have that much young talent, it will be cost controlled for the next 3-5 years so they can dump money on a player like this. Lots of talent and production on major league minimums. 3) Last December I believe in an article in The Athletic he admitted that not running out grounders or fly balls "is not who I am". Nothing makes an employee more upset than when one employee has a different set of rules than everybody else. If players get benched for not running out grounders/fly balls but Machado doesn't get benched for not running them out, there will be a lot of tension in that clubhouse.
  20. LouisEly
    The idea that the Brewers are hamstrung by payroll restrictions seems like its a largely made-up idea, stemming from a sour-grapes Cub-fan-written Bleacher Report article penned in December, and a few posters here that seem convinced that the Brewers have no money. The fact is, Attanasio wants to win, and he sees that the window is open just like we all do. He's going to make the moves to make it happen, within reason of course. The Brewers played six home playoff games last year. I don't know what their % take is of that revenue (or their % take from road games or the TV broadcast), but if you ballpark it at 45,000 fans and each spends an average of $200 per game on ticket, parking, concessions, merchandise, etc., that's $9M per game, or $54,000,000 for six games. It's certainly possible that the Brewers earned an additional $30M or more from being in the playoffs last year.
  21. LouisEly
    There is actually a slightly higher correlation between team SLG and runs scored than team OBP and runs scored. Moustakas' .459 SLG last year versus Dietrich's .421 neutralizes the OBP difference.
  22. LouisEly
    He wasn't terrible tonight. Single-handedly responsible for the win. He and Pritzl.
  23. LouisEly
    Who's available that fits that description and can play 2B or 3B and is willing to sign a one year contract for $10M or less? Before anyone says Dietrich, his lifetime OBP is a marginally better .335 and his defense is horrible. Moose is at least a plus defender.
  24. LouisEly
    Sphincters on the north side of Chicago are getting tight.
  25. LouisEly
    Keaton?
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