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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Agree that Cobb has had some injuries, but strongly disagree that he is overrated. In fact, I think the biggest personnel issue this year was his and Allison's injuries because it forced rookies to play, and it takes a long time to learn this system and get on the same page as Rodgers. A healthy Cobb and Allison have a huge impact on this offense. Cobb is a talented player (when he's healthy) - you don't need to look any further than the 2016 playoffs or the first game of this season against the Bears to see that.
  2. LouisEly
    Perhaps, but there were a number of reports from the minors when he was at AA/A+ that he was hitting 96-98 in the 6th inning or later. When you are getting yanked back and forth between AAA and the majors, and the pen and the rotation, I don't know how you can measure consistency. You have to have a consistent role first. Sometimes when these guys get called up it's on short notice and they are on really early flights, don't get much sleep, are anxious about pitching in the majors, etc., which can all affect performance. Speaking of pitcher-friendly parks, not only does Bumgarner have a pitcher-friendly home park he also pitches many road games in other pitcher-friendly road parks (San Diego and Los Angeles) due to the unbalanced schedule. He also pitches a lot of road games in hitter-friendly parks (Colorado, Arizona), so that may balance out.
  3. LouisEly
    So did Boston.
  4. LouisEly
    Also makes legitimate SP prospects, such as Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and Brown, that much more valuable.
  5. LouisEly
    Nicasio is going to make $9.5M in 2019; that's like the Brewers dumping Soria, kind of a no-brainer. I was scratching my head at first, but after seeing Nicasio's salary it's about a $30M savings for Seattle. They had to take on Bruce's and Swarzak's contracts to dump Cano. It's all about the long-term savings. Santana will only be 33 next season, and he posted a .231 BABIP last year (career BABIP .265) with more BB than K. He could easily rebound to 2016/2017 numbers, and if he does, the Mariners will likely only have to eat at most $10M of his 2020 salary to trade him, saving them another $10M. Santana is a decent bounce-back candidate who, if he does bounce back, could be flipped for more prospects.
  6. LouisEly
    I am done being a Packer fan if we hire McDaniels. After he hung the Colts high and dry (as well as the staff he hired) he doesn't belong getting any interviews anywhere IMO. A sure sign of immaturity. Agreed. I'll give McDaniels a pass for Denver - plenty of great HC's failed at their first shot at HC, including Belichek. I won't give McDaniels a pass for Indy. And I sure as hell don't trust McDaniels to stay here when Belichek decides to retire. For all we know, Kraft promised McDaniels the HC job in NE when Belichek retires and that's why he bailed on Indy. My definition of integrity is "you do what you say you are going to do". McDaniels has no integrity as far as I'm concerned, and that's the last thing I want in a HC.
  7. LouisEly
    You see this in college football too, and we're seeing a little of it with the Badgers and Chryst right now. I think most of the "fans" who are taking this personally are like the "fans" who take college football personally and are just the people who cling to a sports team because they have nothing else worthwhile in their lives. Like how a vast majority of people who take college football personally or talk crap about other teams/to other team's fans are people who never went to that university to begin with.
  8. LouisEly
    They'd make conference championship games meaningless. And they'd just shift the argument about who the #4 team should be to who the #7/#8 teams should be. As we see with the NCAA basketball tournament, you can have 64 or 68 teams in and they will still argue about who should get in and who shouldn't. End the circus - Michigan and Georgia lost twice and Ohio State lost 49-20 to Purdue, they shouldn't be in. UCF maybe has a beef, but without their QB they kind of don't.
  9. LouisEly
    Awesome job as always. I did this once and it takes a good bit of effort. Your point about how many are ticketed for AAA is an important one. It's why I don't think they need to invest in the SP free agent market - in addition to Brown and Supak, it's likely that at least one of Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes starts the season there. They have depth. And they also have some pieces they can use to get a few rentals; they may not have the upper tier guys to get an ace or Realmuto, but guys who are close to the majors have value and some of these guys could get another Moustakas, Gonzales, or Soria rental.
  10. LouisEly
    They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets. How do you know that 2017 wasn't the outlier? In 2016 he had 15.3 K/9 and 5.87 K/BB and FIP of 2.04, and in 2018 he had 15.2 K/9, 7.29 K/BB, and 1.61 FIP. 2017 looks like more of an outlier to me, and the 10 HRs he gave up in 2017 could easily be noise and not the signal.
  11. LouisEly
    Also gives him an extra month to list his house. The housing market is a little soft this time of year.
  12. LouisEly
    Would not be surprised if there are other things going on behind closed doors. The tension with Rodgers was perhaps a sign of a greater tension that we weren't privy to. Maybe McCarthy has been complaining behind closed doors about not getting the players he wanted or maybe he strongly opposed trading HHCD, maybe McCarthy put up an ultimatum and asked to be fired. Whatever it is, I don't think that losing this year is the only reason behind it.
  13. LouisEly
    What the hell happened today? 51 passing plays, 11 carries for Jones in a poor weather game. Really?
  14. LouisEly
    Cervelli would be a nice addition that probably wouldn’t cost too much. He would be a good option to bring back on a two year deal next offseason as well. Cervelli had a nice 2018, but his 2017 and 2016 were what the Brewers got from Pina last year (and less than what they got from Pina in 2017). I don't see the upgrade. I'd bet that given the contract that Kratz signed, they are going to go with Pina as the starter, Nottingham as the backup (one start a week, focusing on learning the staff and adjusting to the majors with an eye on starting in 2020), and Kratz at AAA if Nottingham bombs. If Nottingham looks OK, then Kratz comes up in September. I just don't see a deal for Realmuto unless the price comes down to the aforementioned Woodruff, Nottingham, Ray. And that's a better offer than many think. Boston won the World Series with worse production at C than the Brewers, arguably the worst production at C in all of baseball. You don't have to have All-Stars at every position to win the World Series.
  15. LouisEly
    I'd be willing to bet that the Mets have Cano fill the hole at 1B. They have Jeff McNeil at 2B, and Cano's bat plays well enough at 1B. Not quite DH, but pretty close. The big questions here that will sway the balance of the trade are: 1) How will Cano perform post-getting busted for PEDs? B) Diaz has never had any arm trouble/TJ surgery... will that continue? I've said before, with the Mets' starting rotation all they need is a 1B, a 3B, and bullpen help. They got two of the three here. If they can add Moustakas at 3B and another reliever or two... they have as good a chance as any.
  16. LouisEly
    I have a really hard time looking at the Mets' starting rotation and saying they are not potential contenders. What the Mets need is health in the starting rotation, a decent 1B (not difficult to find in FA), a decent 3B (Moustakas), and some bullpen help. Cano's bat can certainly play at 1B solving that issue, and Diaz helps the bullpen deficiency big time. Add Moustakas and 1-2 more bullpen pieces and I think they are a legit contender.
  17. LouisEly
    I think it's a good statement about his character to come out and tell us that he made a mistake. Players respect that, his coaches respect that, fans respect that. I have a very hard time seeing how making a statement holding himself accountable for a rare bad move is in any way a negative thing. If he had dragged Schoop through the mud with his comments I could see that perspective but he doesn't come off that way at all IMO. It’s all opinion but not all might respect that sort of comment. I certainly don’t. It don’t think it’s a necessary comment to say it is a bad trade. Just not necessary since everyone can put it together if you cut a guy a few months after trading three players for. I don't believe it was a "comment" though - I believe it was an answer to a question from a reporter. It wasn't in a press release or any official statement, it was something that he said to a reporter who likely asked a question.
  18. LouisEly
    Wow... a Ricky Olson comp. Haven't heard that name in 30 years.
  19. LouisEly
    Lovely. Basically a home game for Stanford.
  20. LouisEly
    I really enjoy reading this thread, because it is a prime example of how behavioral heuristics affect decision-making. Specifically, people irrationally overvalue sunk costs and undervalue opportunity costs. What Schoop was traded for is a sunk cost. It's gone, and nothing will change that. In business, you should never make decisions based on sunk costs. This is also why people lose more money gambling than they should - they try to "make it up" by playing longer or trying another game, but rarely does it work; they are making decisions based on sunk costs (earlier gambling losses). People should make decisions based on opportunity costs. That is the question here - what is the opportunity cost of resigning Schoop? Is there someone else they can get who will likely be a better value (value defined as production compared to salary)? An example of opportunity cost is the argument for Dietrich. They can start Dietrich against RHP (which is ~70% of starting pitching) and bring in Perez as a defensive replacement late in games to mitigate Dietrich's defensive deficiencies. The question is how much Dietrich is going to cost, and what they can do with the $ savings (invest in an upgrade elsewhere, buy out an arbitration year, etc.). Will that provide more value? I don't know. Likely the Brewers are waiting until the last minute to evaluate all possible opportunity costs. As they should.
  21. LouisEly
    I don't know that I'd call him "past prime". Last year in 80 games he put up 3.2 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR. That's pretty impressive. In a few years he might be "past prime", but not now.
  22. LouisEly
    Agree with this. They don't have the high-end guys, but when I went to 100 on my prospect list there were very, very few who didn't have something going for them. I recall Sickels last year having a ridiculous number of C+/C grade prospects in the Brewers system, and they were almost all Rookie/low-A guys with some upside, not meh AA/AAA guys. It's possible that 1-2 years from now the Brewers could have 20+ B-grade prospects, and that's a lot.
  23. LouisEly
    I agree. The last two drafts have been decent. Off the top of my head they are very good at RB, WR, QB, and CB going forward. Tight end needs an upgrade. The OL is good but needs some back fill (too bad about Cole Madison. Wonder if he is ever going to play football again? Haven't heard squat since the summer.) According to this: https://emeraldcityswagger.com/2018/10/04/washington-state-football-ex-cougars-nfl-10-2018/2/ Gute supposedly believes Madison will be a part of the team next year.
  24. LouisEly
    I've been thinking for a while that SomewhereInTime is the Dr. Jeckyll/evil twin of clancyphile. Now I'm convinced.
  25. LouisEly
    I think this will be the new normal - 1-2 year deals for higher AAV. Clubs aren't going to give out the big, long deals anymore, and players will likely think the way to maximize their earnings will be to take these shorter deals at a higher AAV and then hit the market again sooner.
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