LouisEly

Advanced metrics are essentially models, and in my industry there is a saying that, "all models are wrong, but some are useful". FIP, IMO, overvalues HRs and Ks and undervalues BBs and GB%. It's a model, and there are always outliers to models - the question is what the standard error is to the model and how many fall outside the standard error.

Brewers Twitter feed with some great trolling last night - "Putting the L in rivalry". One of the writers (I think McCalvy) put out a tweet with a GIF of a Brewers fan bringing out a big blue flag with an "L" on it. I tried to save it to my phone but couldn't figure out how. If anyone can save and share that it would be greatly appreciated.

Yep, time to empty the bench.

This is fun, embarrassing the Cubs like this.

They spent all their money on bad or injured starting pitchers.

You aren't going to see a Sunday lineup tomorrow...... Yep. Off-day Thursday, it's all hands on deck.

How many of them are selling their tickets for tomorrow?

I wonder what the most number of runs scored in a game without a RBI on a base hit is? Edit: darn near two wild pitches to make it eight without a RBI hit.

I say go with Knebel or Albers. Get them right. Any hint of trouble, have Burnes or Soria ready. Knebel looks right. At just the right time.

Nope, just hunting bears. Little ones.

I'd prefer to roll it in like tennis has done - you get three appeals per game, it tells you within a few seconds if it was in or out.

Does Knebel still come in, or do they go with Burnes or Barnes?

Dammit, all we need is for Aguilar to have a broken hand or finger.

That's one of the filthiest sliders I've ever seen. Starts at him and breaks into the zone for a strike. At 90 mph. I wouldn't want any part of that either.

The Cards were 22-6 in August. That isn't going to continue. Not sure if the Brewers and Cubs broadcasts are sharing the same CF camera, but the Cubs broadcast has a camera feed that is directly behind the pitcher's mound, not off to the side a bit. You can really see the movement in Miley's pitches. There is a lot of movement through the zone. Supports why he's having a good season.

I'm not writing off Guerra just yet - he's pitched more innings this year than any prior year (and missed a big chunk of last year). He was effective until about 3-4 starts ago; I think he's just run out of gas. He may be more effective as a long reliever/spot starter though if he can't get up to 180 innings. As others have said, it comes down to Nelson. If he's healthy and ready to go, then you set your depth at eight major-league ready starters between the majors and AAA. In AAA the three backups are Peralta, Zack Brown, and one of Guerra/Wilkerson (and beyond that you have Supak, Webb, and perhaps Diplan). That leaves five in the rotation to choose between Nelson, Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, and Houser. If Miley is back, that's eight to choose from. I think at least one of Anderson/Davies/Chacin get traded, two if Miley is back. One of Woodruff/Houser starts, the other to the bullpen. Re: Woodruff - how many starting pitching prospects come up and put up great numbers right from the get-go? Not many. I see him as being a lot like Foltynewicz who took three years to adjust to the majors, and Atlanta is really glad they stuck with him as a starter. Woodruff may spend 2019 in the bullpen, but he'll get a shot at the rotation. Overall strategy - accumulate as much starting pitching as possible and trade the excess to upgrade at other positions or help restock the farm system.

I'd add Burnes and Barnes, likely before Williams. For his career, Barnes has a .651 OPS-A against the Cubs. Can bet that Jennings and Cedeno will be facing lefties at some point. I think the order is Miley, Burnes, one of Jennings/Cedeno, Barnes, other of Jennings/Cedeno, Jeffress/Soria/Knebel. But it's also the Cubs - it's all hands on deck.

Exactly. If it isn't a rivalry, why are you whining about balls and strikes when you're winning. And the invading Miller Park thing is an economics issue as much as it is a "selling out" issue. There is just a lot more disposable income in the greater Chicago area because there are far, far more corporations and high-paying jobs here than in Milwaukee. A ticket with a season-ticketholder cost of $60 to a Wisconsinite who has an annual household income of $100K/year is a bigger % of their disposable income than a Chicagoan who pays $120 for that ticket but has an annual household income of $250K/year (or more). It's just not as big of a deal economically to these fans - especially north suburban Chicago where the big money is - than to the average Wisconsinite.

It's more about pitches than innings. One reason why Hader went out for the 8th today was because he had only thrown 15 pitches combined between the 6th and 7th (obviously the other was because the top of the lineup was coming up, including Murphy and Rizzo).

Udvar-Hazy Center was awesome. Tip - take the local freeway lanes and not the express to the airport. Google Maps directions are not clear. Kind of rushed it because we slept in late (some of the guys thought appropriate to stay out until >2am) and had to get down to Charlottesville for the game. Rushed the Air & Space Museum on the mall... well, my friends rushed it. They were tired and wanted to eat/drink. Arlington Cemetery - the tour was OK. It's way too big to walk (don't know if they'll let you bike it, but no motorized vehicles unless you are part of a funeral) but wish it made more brief stops (5 minutes) at more grave sites of historical people instead of talking about them as you drive by. They have monuments to both shuttle disasters behind the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, right next to a memorial for the botched Iran hostage rescue and near a memorial for the Monitor. Charlottesville was great. Not as fun as Madison, but they have a pedestrian mall kind of like State Street with all kinds of restaurants and shops in downtown. Really cool pizza place by the stadium that used to be a service station back in the day. Wish we would have spent the night there. Went to the Spy Museum but didn't go in - we didn't think it was worth the $24/person as it didn't look that big and the line was long. Seemed as much like a game as a museum, likely geared towards Millennials (who made up just about everyone in line). Go back to your Escape Room. Did go to Old Ebbitt's. Big place, four bars in there. Was a 1.25 hour wait for a table, so we ate at the bar. They say the trout is one of their signature dishes but I didn't care for the breading and sauce. My friends had other dishes and loved them. I'd definitely go again it won't be on Labor Day weekend. Hot/humid (today the dew point was 74) plus lots of families/kids, although Saturday it was cloudy so the temps were reasonable.

This reply was even better:

Sanchez has struck out 13 per 9 this year - that's Peralta-type numbers. What's really interesting is that he wasn't signed until he was 22 years old. No real record of him pitching in organized ball before that, and no mention of him in the International Signing thread for 2016. I don't know how you slip through the cracks like that, but I'm glad the Brewers found him.

I'd be on board with Hummel but the problem is that he hasn't been playing C this year - only 8 games, with 43 as a DH and 52 in the OF. There has been a bit of a logjam there though, with Feliciano (25 games at C), McDowell (45 games), Houle (17 games), and Rojas (7 games) there as well, so it may be a case of Hummel being the best OF and playing there by need. But Rojas has been playing C lately, and I don't know that he's a better prospect than Hummel.

It's a hard play to make when you're going to your right and have to throw cross-body to home. Would've had to stop, plant, and throw home and he knows full well that Broxton's at 3B with a lead. I think that if he goes home it's far from a sure thing, maybe 50/50 at best. But getting up, running to 3rd and having to turn around and throw the other direction vs a fast runner is almost impossible. Pop up and go home you should still be alive another batter Will have to agree to disagree - he has to weigh that Broxton has a lead (and is arguably faster) but Yelich is running the entire 90 feet. Also, watching the replay, Bryant's back was actually to home plate after he fielded it - turning his body to home would have been difficult and his momentum was going away from the plate versus using the bag to plant and anchor to throw to first. I think it's the same success probability either way. Maybe quicker to home, but much greater chance of an errant throw due to how he would have had to turn his body to square up to the target and not throw cross-body.

It's a hard play to make when you're going to your right and have to throw cross-body to home. Would've had to stop, plant, and throw home and he knows full well that Broxton's at 3B with a lead. I think that if he goes home it's far from a sure thing, maybe 50/50 at best.