LouisEly
-
Posts
12,041 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
14
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by LouisEly
-
First to 100! 1 Burnes C 2 Hiura K 3 Brown Z 4 Ray C 5 Turang B 6 Erceg L 7 Houser A 8 Lutz T 9 Diplan M 10 Nottingham J 11 Dubon M 12 Stokes T 13 Supak T 14 Gatewood J 15 Grisham T 16 Henry P 17 Webb B 18 Ponce C 19 QT-C 20 Kirby N 21 Bickford P 22 Feliciano M 23 Lemons K 24 Gray J 25 Bello M 26 Ramirez N 27 Perrin J 28 McClanahan C 29 Harber C 30 Roegner C 31 Derby B 32 Moore D 33 Hager J 34 Castillo LG 35 Vassalotti M 36 Rodriguez C 37 Orimoloye D 38 Abreu P 39 Segovia J 40 Williams Dev 41 Harrison KJ 42 Ernesto L 43 Herrera C 44 Orf N 45 Taylor T 46 Olczak J 47 Owenby D 48 McDowell M 49 Jankins T 50 Ashby A 51 Wilson W 52 Neuhaus T 53 Lillis B 54 Clark Z 55 Hummel C 56 Uhen J 57 Garcia G 58 Greip N 59 Barker L 60 Sanchez M 61 Castaneda V 62 Egnatuk N 63 Lazar M 64 Williams Jess 65 Ward J 66 Taugner C 67 Luna C 68 Coca Y 69 Pinero A 70 Familia A 71 Bettinger A 72 Valdez Alw 73 Brown Daniel 74 Murphy B 75 Houle D 76 Rasmussen D 77 Matulovich J 78 Jarvis J 79 Andrews C 80 Sibrian J 81 Chirinos J 82 Melendez A 83 Lara G 84 Salaman W 85 Howell K 86 Sano E 87 Robinson C 88 Coulter C 89 Walters N 90 Martinez EW 91 Archer T 92 Feliciano J 93 Carroll D 94 Morales K 95 Bullock J 96 Lujano J 97 Presley B 98 Rubick A 99 Salaya B 100 Gonzales L -
That Was The Coolest Trade Deadline I've Ever Seen
LouisEly replied to splitterpfj's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Maybe I'm overvaluing them, but I keep thinking that if the Brewers packaged Ortiz, Medeiros, and Carmona together they would have been able to get a pretty good SP. -
As for young arms, they have Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Z. Brown (I know that the Brewers are very high on him), Houser, and Supak. Good chance this offseason they trade one, possibly two, of Anderson/Davies/Guerra and restock with a few younger arms. The Brewers are definitely short on arms in the lower levels though. Need some of those HS arms from the last few drafts (Lillis, Lemons, Murphy, Lazar, Bullock, Morales, Jarvis, Gonzales, Olsen) to pan out, but it will be a while.
-
With the season he's having this year I highly doubt he will get a significant raise, if any raise at all.
-
Atlanta also sent $2.5M in international bonus pool money to the O's. That is not an insignificant number, and it could put the O's over the top for that Cuban pitcher.
-
He is only owed about $2M for the rest of the season - I don't think he makes it through the waiver wire.
-
With two open spots on the 40 I could see both QTC and Nick Ramirez added and called up in September. Lots of L/R matchup switches.
-
I guarantee we'll see less of Orf.
-
Brinson played in 21 games for the Brewers.
-
I think it's a fair trade. My concern with Schoop is that he doesn't take walks - 3.3% BB rate this year, 3.6% BB rate for his career. K rate isn't awful - 20% this year, 22% for his career. Because he doesn't walk though he has to hit for power. Doesn't put pressure on the Brewers to bring up Hiura early, and I don't think that Hiura would have been ready next year anyway. Brewers still have lots of young pitching depth - Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Houser, Zack Brown. Carmona is a long ways off and all potential at this point. I'm OK with it.
-
He will likely clear waivers He only has a $5.6M salary this season - no way he doesn't get claimed with only a little over $2M on the hook. Shields will very likely clear waivers though, and his OPS-A this year is a lot lower than Harvey's.
-
Archer to Pirates for Meadows/Glasnow/Baz
LouisEly replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Eh, more like Hiura/Woodruff but the question is who the 3rd piece is - a significant prospect, or a proverbial lottery ticket. -
It depends on what it costs, but I don't see Gausman as being significantly better than a couple of rentals who will cost significantly less and I don't see him as being significantly better than who the Brewers can add to the rotation next year (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) to pay for his years of control so I don't see the point of Gausman unless it's a decoy to get the Rays to lower their price on Archer. I get that he's pitching in the AL East, but over the last two years he's had an ERA/FIP around 4.50 and an OK K rate. I don't see the point in giving up multiple legitimate prospects for that. I'd rather give up a couple of middling prospects for Harvey or Shields (if CWS throws in some cash) than significant prospects for Gausman.
-
Agreed 100%. The silver lining is that between this and Newcomb, it's pushing Hader into the background. Pretty soon every team will have someone to boo.
-
That's what I'm thinking. I'm assuming there will be at least a day off between the last game of the regular season and the playoff game, and then at least a day off between the playoff game and the Divisional series, so why not start Peralta or Burnes and plan on them going only 3-4 innings? Then Hader and the other of Peralta/Burnes for two innings each, leveraging a PH when needed, and that gets you to the 7th/8th inning where Jeffress/Knebel/Soria can take over. In reality it's one of Anderson/Chacin, but if they pitch the last two games of the season then I think you go committee for the playoff game.
-
Here's one I haven't seen yet, and I think it makes more sense than you think: A middling prospect (Joantgel Segovia or the equivalent) to the White Sox for James Shields + $5M ($3M in salary relief, $2M to cover Shields' 2019 buyout). Before you vomit all over your keyboard, Shields has averaged over 6 IP per start this year - he can get to the bullpen and keep the team in the game without taxing the bullpen with short starts. The 4.60 ERA/FIP isn't sexy, but get him out of the AL and the DH and that number comes down - he has a 3.41 ERA in inter-league play this season. His HR rate is down this year. Best of all, the Brewers keep all of their top prospects. A 4.60 ERA translates into only 2.55 (earned) runs per five innings, 3 (earned) runs over six innings. That's plenty good enough to get to a lock-down bullpen and give the team a chance to win without mortgaging the future.
-
If no moves are made, next year they could have Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Guerra, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Houser vying for starting spots. That's 9 legitimate options, not including Ortiz and Zack Brown. Because of that, I think all three are viable options. They have the depth to move a few pieces for a starter controlled for a few years, and they have a 4/5 year window with Cain and Yelich. Next year they'll have Nelson and Davies back from injuries and a stretched out Burnes and Houser, lessening the need for a starter beyond this season. And with all of the off days in August they could ride a 4-man rotation + spot starts through the end of the year. Going back to the eleven options they'll have next year, they could move three of those for a top SP and they will still have nine viable options next year. But pitching is more expensive at the deadline. I think the best value overall is a rental; keep the top prospects, trade one or two of Anderson/Davies/Guerra in the offseason to reload on prospects or shore up C/2B, and go with the young cost-controlled pitching to have financial flexibility to upgrade wherever they see fit.
-
My dark horse that nobody has mentioned yet - Nick Ramirez. Multi-inning reliever who doesn't need to be pinch-hit for and can also pinch-hit on days he's unavailable after a multi-inning outing. 4-man rotation for August with shorter starts and spot-starts for when they need a 5th starter.
-
You mean they're not algorithms with expected outcomes??
-
Nationals last minute sellers?
LouisEly replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Interesting. I'm going to reverse-engineer one of JosephC's calculations here. Thames was a 1.4 bWAR/2.1 fWAR last year, so let's call it 1.7 WAR and he's at 1.2 so far this year. Let's say that means an additional 0.5 WAR this year plus two more seasons of 1.7 WAR which comes to 3.9 WAR left on his contract... let's round it to 4 WAR. I think JosephC ballparks a FA WAR at ~$9M, so Thames is worth $36M remaining on his contract. Salaries remaining of about $15.5M so let's call it a surplus of about $20M. Harper is the hard calculation - he's been all over the board. Both had him at just under 5 WAR last year but only 0.4 bWAR/1.6 fWAR this year - let's call it 1 WAR, and let's say he gets hot and is worth 2 WAR the rest of the way. 2 WAR ~$18M, he's owed ~$9M, so a surplus value of $9M. So yes, Thames would be an overpay of about $11M. Have WAS throw in a couple of A-ball prospects and I'd make that deal. -
What's Pina supposed to do with this? The first pitch was the only solid strike, and it was a curve that started outside of the zone. This was good pitching - he didn't have anything to hit. Maybe he lays off the 8th pitch, but it was a slider that started in the zone and with two strikes have to protect.
-
That's what I was thinking. Why? Career vs. Cubs: 3.77 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, .269 OBP, .618 OPS-A.
-
Let's not go off on a tangent about specific players. I know that's difficult to do because it DOES matter who the pitcher is and who the prospects are; however, what I'm getting at is the concept, which is that there is no such thing as a good, controllable pitcher that could be had for minimal prospects. The Brewers either have to give up multiple top prospects for a good, controllable pitcher, or if they want to keep their top prospects they can only get a rental. Tradeoffs are a part of trades, and I'm curious what tradeoffs people are willing to make.
-
Baltimore did just make a trade for additional international bonus pool money. That's an interesting strategy - instead of investing in a lot of scouting, just take your entire pool and go after the top couple of guys, overpaying if you have to.
