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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    I'm 100% with you. What many don't realize is that the A's have nothing for OF prospects. Their highest ranked OF prospect is at #8 in their system and he started the year in the DSL. Their #15 is a 1B/OF who struggles against LHP and strikes out a lot and projects to be a platoon player. Their next OF is at #21. I think OFs, especially ones who can play CF, will have a lot of value to them. The reality is that the Brewers have a ton of OF prospects, plus Santana (only 24) on the major league roster. Some are going to have to be traded sooner or later, preferably while they still have value. That's my impetus for trading Ray now. I think he has more value now than he will two years from now. So who should the Brewers trade their OF prospects for and when? Why wait and risk them losing value? Why not trade for a pitcher under 30 with multiple years of control?
  2. LouisEly
    I'm wondering if anyone recognizes this ceiling fan and knows what brand it is. Came with the house, but the old owners didn't see fit to leave the remote. (Assuming there is a remote, as there is nothing to pull to increase/decrease fan speed.)[attachment=1]IMAG0611-2.jpg[/attachment]
  3. LouisEly
    Or something that is both phenomenally cool and annoying to the right people...
  4. LouisEly
    Or something phenomenally cool....
  5. LouisEly
    Almost all businesses operate on a budget, usually annual. Braun's salary in future seasons will be a part of that budget, unless it gets moved sooner as a "prepaid expense". If the Brewers pay it earlier then they would discount that for the time value of money - it wouldn't cost "millions more". Discounting $19M (2019 salary) for two years at 5% per year yields a net present value of ~$17,200,000, or a difference of $1.76M. If you were to offer to split that with Braun evenly it would cost $880K, and I'm sure Braun would jump at it. Discounting Braun's 2020 salary ($17M) by three years at 5%/year yields $14,685,000 net present value. I don't think the OP was intending to entirely pre-pay it, but to front-load some of it so the future salaries (that will count against future budgets) will be reduced, allowing for the addition of more players/salary expense in those future season's budgets.
  6. LouisEly
    This is how Counsell must feel right now: http://i.imgur.com/Ri6NnMu.gif Counsell 3:16 says I just whipped your... Karma is a you-know-what.
  7. LouisEly
    There was a bit of an uproar over that Davies move last year. But this year the Brewers are in 1st place. Every game from here on out counts. I think it would be more than justified to do it this year to bring up another bat for a few games.
  8. LouisEly
    No, it's behavioral economics. They've done studies where people can get a generic store-brand chocolate for free or a high-end expensive chocolate for one cent. Most people choose the generic store brand chocolate. People irrationally overvalue things that are free or cheap.
  9. LouisEly
    It's more of the former than the latter. People who want to trade him (such as myself) do so not because we think he's a "bust", but because 1) the Brewers will need to trade some of those OF eventually and B) we want the Brewers to do it before he loses any value. Yes, he's only 122 games into his pro career, yes he got placed aggressively, yes he's working on specific things. But that's no guarantee that he will be successful. History is littered with Top 10 picks who didn't pan out for whatever reason. We want to maximize the trade value and holding on has risks. There were questions about his hit tool in college, and those questions so far have not gone away. There are legitimate risks to holding on to him, and to your point, those risks may or may not materialize. But when you have Broxton, Brinson, Phillips... I'd rather not take the chance. If the Brewers were starved for CF prospects then I'd be a lot more patient with him. But that's not the case. It's also been clear that I've been advocating trading him for pitchers under 30 with multiple years of control left, not pitchers >30. (I never said Ray for Samardzjia.)
  10. LouisEly
    I like Zack Brown, but just imagine if the Brewers would have drafted Shawaryn instead. 109 Ks in 81 IP, reasonable walk rate (a little high tonight). Nice to see Taylor Williams get the pitch count back up. 1 hit and 1 walk with 6 Ks through 3.1 IP.
  11. LouisEly
    Why the quick hook on Drake? My FoxSportsGo feed crapped out for a minute (like it does 4-5x per game)
  12. LouisEly
    You left out: "Garza sucks because he gave up a hit/run in the first three innings" For not giving up any runs and only five hits through six... don't you guys think you are jumping the gun a bit on the Garza criticism? I mean, like, every start?
  13. LouisEly
    Carlos Herrera, one of the other pieces in the Lind trade, in a small sample so far in 21 IP has given up 16 hits, walked 5, and struck out 26. The five HRs dampens that a bit, but he's 19, going on 20 in October.
  14. LouisEly
    i agree he certainly was safe and if just stays on the base they go to replay and it's overturned. However he goes full on Carlos Gomez and half asses it to third before getting tagged out. Doesn't matter because he was called out at 2nd. Play ends there. Arcia get applauded for it, Villar get criticized.
  15. LouisEly
    No, I wasn't including him in the rotation - he was in the rotation, and is part of how the Brewers got to where they are - first place. Let me be more specific - Moore just has to be better than what the Brewers have had the first half of the season, which includes Guerra, Davies, and Peralta. I'm sorry, but when you say "if you didn't include that one start/if you only include part of the season" then your argument really, really doesn't hold water. They all count. Baseball is a game where performance ebbs and flows for various reasons. They aren't robots that will perform exactly the same every time they are used. Hell, the 2nd half of last year Peralta had a 2.92 ERA and .680 OPS-A. But we can look at a 13-game stretch for Davies to say he's decent. OK...
  16. LouisEly
    I think you could say that Carolina got a little lucky tonight: Carolina Bottom of the 9th Monte Harrison singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Jack Charleston. Dropped foul pop error by catcher Zack Collins. Trent Clark walks. Monte Harrison to 2nd. Max McDowell strikes out on a foul bunt. Luis Aviles grounds out, first baseman Telvin Nash to pitcher Jack Charleston. Monte Harrison to 3rd. Trent Clark to 2nd. Corey Ray walks. Troy Stokes Jr. singles on a pop up to catcher Zack Collins. Monte Harrison scores. Trent Clark scores. Corey Ray out at home, catcher Zack Collins to first baseman Telvin Nash. Sounds like Zack Collins had an inning to forget. How the heck do you single on a pop up to catcher?? If he dropped it, it would be an error; unless it was one of those everybody call it but nobody catches it and it drops untouched.
  17. LouisEly
    Sure didn't look like batting practice on June 5th
  18. LouisEly
    He doesn't have to be better than he has been since TJ. He just has to be better than Guerra/Davies/Peralta, which doesn't take much. I think this year is a small sample aberration for Moore because for his career he has a .724 OPS-A vs. RHB and a .744 OPS-A vs. LHB. This year his OPS-A vs. LHB is 1.143 with a BABIP of .413 (career BABIP .297); BABIP is much more relevant for pitchers, and that is way out of line vs. expected. Versus RHB there has been slight regression (.784 OPS-A) but not that out of line with career norms. The point is that the Brewers could acquire him without having to give up much and still stick to the rebuild plan.
  19. LouisEly
    Zack Brown has been pretty good as of late, looks like he's finally over the injury he had earlier this year. I'll give credit where credit is due, since June 17th Trent Clark has raised his BA from .209 to .235, his OBP from .345 to .377, and his SLG from .316 to .370. He still has a ways to go, and the walks are great but at the next level pitchers are going to be less wild. The 27.6% K rate suggests he does a lot of looking, sometimes walking, sometimes striking out. He's going to have to be more aggressive. Every draft there is a college pitcher or two who slips into the 4th round or later and blossoms in pro ball. The Brewers may have gotten lucky and nabbed two of them in the last four drafts.
  20. LouisEly
    I understand the concerns about taking on Samardzjia's salary, but the reality is that a "cheaper" pitcher will cost more in prospects to acquire (see: Quintana, Jose). The point is that they could acquire him without sacrificing the rebuild. Starting pitching is expensive. (That's why some of us have been vocal about investing so many high draft picks in OFs.) There are only three ways to acquire it - give up talent, draft it, or take on age/injury/financial/performance risk.
  21. LouisEly
    Baseball America is also reporting the Brewers signing: Luis Valderrama, c, Venezuela Davison Gonzalez, lhp, Venezuela Juan Frias, of, Dominican Republic I guess we won't know how much those first two signed for. [sarcasm]Even though they are OFs[/sarcasm], I like the Ernesto and Rodriguez signings. Ernesto is 6'2", 175 - that's pretty good for being only 16. Switch hitter but better from the left side.
  22. LouisEly
    I'm guessing the lack of naming someone right away to get called up to replace Espino has to do with whether/not to put Blazek back on the 40-man or keep the open roster spot. I think you bring up Jungmann and leave the spot open (and I also think Jungmann should start - Suter has been much better out of the pen). I think the reason for starting Suter is to get him closer to ineligibility for our Top 25 prospect poll that the plan is to budget Suter for 3-4 innings, then Blazek/Jungmann for 2-3 innings, then Hader, so you have lefty-righty-lefty and counter any stacking of righties or lefties in the opposing lineup. Here's where that "rainout" with the Cubs comes back to screw the Brewers - they should have had an off-day on Thursday and should have been able to push their starters back a day to get them to the All-Star break with only covering one start.
  23. LouisEly
    I wouldn't be surprised if it's also Guerra to the 10-day DL and they bring up both Blazek and Jungmann. Both have been pitching really well lately.
  24. LouisEly
    [sarcasm]You forgot - Thames is going to be the most overpaid Brewer and have the worst contract by the end of the season.[/sarcasm]
  25. LouisEly
    Thames so far has had one bad month - June. His OPS for May was almost .800 (.791, and his OBP was .375 that month). July is off to a pretty good start - .333 avg, .500 OBP, .833 SLG, 1.333 OPS (nano-sample). One bad month does not make a year, and does not make a career. Baseball is streaky. If the Brewers put Thames on the market now there would be no shortage of teams offering prospects for him.
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