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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Here's the interesting part about those four. Lee (#2 overall) - career bWAR 7.2, of which half of that came from one season (2003, age 28) Patterson (#5 overall) - career bWAR 5.5, of which 85% came from one season (2005, age 27) Seay (#12 overall) - career bWAR 3.0, of which almost half came from one season (2007, age 29) White - never made the majors (Boras was worth every penny White paid him) Only three of the four made the majors, and those three basically only had one good season each. For the $10M paid to White and Lee and the $6M paid to Patterson, teams probably would have been better off spending that money on a free agent. One of our favorite whipping boys, Braden Looper, was the #3 overall pick that same year and had a higher career bWAR than any of those four.
  2. LouisEly
    Schwarber has no business being on a NL team. The question is what value an AL team will put on him. The A's already have Khris Davis, who should be a DH, and Matt Olson who is their LHH 1B/corner OF prospect. I just don't know how much value Schwarber will have to the A's.
  3. LouisEly
    Brown was injured early in the season - thus the gap from April 6th to May 11th and only 2-inning stints May 11th and 16th, and thus why he was "awful". Excluding those first three outings, his ERA has been 3.00.
  4. LouisEly
    All Gavin Lux did was make Zack Brown mad.
  5. LouisEly
    You will have nothing and like it!!
  6. LouisEly
    Adam McCalvy said in a tweet the equivalent would likely be Brinson, Ortiz, and two of Coulter/Taylor/Neuhaus. Yes Jimenez is highly rated, but you have to discount the fact that he is in A-ball. Brinson is doing it at AAA. Delmon Young was top-3 prospect four years in a row... and has a career 2.5 bWAR. A lot can happen between A-ball and the majors. Cease pre-2017 barely made top-100 lists; career BB rate of 5.0, this year 4.5. Here's two players in high-A who are 20 year old outfielders (26 days apart in age), both with about 200 career minor league games played: Player A: .351 OBP, .490 SLG, .841 OPS, 10.3% BB rate, 20% K rate, 75% of time in LF, 25% in RF, 0% in CF, 5 career OF assists, 6 career errors Player B: .386 OBP, .400 SLG, .786 OPS, 19.2% BB rate, 26% K rate, 11% of time in LF, 23% in RF, 66% in CF, 17 career OF assists, 6 career errors One of these is Eloy Jimenez, the other is Trent Clark. I'm supposed to believe that Eloy Jimenez is a top-5 overall prospect and Trent Clark is just barely off the top 100 prospect list? Ok...
  7. LouisEly
    Before anyone answers "none" to the "want to trade" list, the reality is that they have at least eight legitimate major league and minor league OFs 25 or younger - Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Cordell, Ray, Clark, Harrison, and Stokes, plus Lutz and at least three international players in the last two years have been given significant signing bonuses. Not to mention long-shots Tyrone Taylor, Clint Coulter, and Demi Orimoloye. Some are going to have to get moved. Who is a no-trade, who is a "must be for young pitching", and who would you like to see moved because you think they will have less value in the future? (The reality is that everyone is available if you're blown away; this is assuming the deal is fair.) No-trade: Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Erceg Must be for young pitching with multiple years of control: Brinson, Phillips, Ortiz, Peralta Like to trade: Ray, Orimoloye, Medeiros, Lara
  8. LouisEly
    Just out of curiosity, wasn't Dallas taking a risk that the Kings would have drafted him at #7 or the 76ers at #8? What would have stopped that from happening?
  9. LouisEly
    Houston is an interesting comparison. They traded Hader, Phillips, Santana, and Houser for Gomez and a good but not great starting pitcher in Fiers. Didn't slow down that train.
  10. LouisEly
    Reading the box scores makes me feel like I took a trip in the way-back machine. Brewers affiliates tonight have faced Adam Loewen, Clayton Mortensen, and Daniel Schlereth. Schlereth is 31 years old. Seems like just yesterday he was rushed to the majors.
  11. LouisEly
    Unless I'm forgetting someone, I think before Burnes it had been about seven years since a pitcher made more than a cameo appearance in AA the year after getting drafted. Somehow, of the two who did it in 2010, I remembered the obscure one and missed the more obvious one. Kudos to you for remembering Andre Lamontagne.
  12. LouisEly
    Make that 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K. Interesting to note that Jacksonville's starter was an undrafted free agent out of Drury(?) University last year, and is already in AA. He's put up very good numbers in his year of pro ball, good enough to be in AA a year after signing. Heckuva sign by the Marlins.
  13. LouisEly
    All aboard the QT-C bandwagon! I've had my eye on him for the past year and a half; he's never made my top 35 prospect list but has been just outside of it (have mentioned him in my "others"). Between QT-C and Nick Ramirez the Brewers have some solid left-handed relief prospects on the horizon. Ramirez started off slow - he hadn't pitched in six years, you had to expect some walks early on - but since June 1st he has a line of 22.1 IP, 17 H, 1 ER (solo HR), 2 BB, 17 K. That's over 10 games, so he's done it averaging over 2 IP per outing and not as a lefty specialist. In fact, he's faced twice as many righties as lefties. QT-C has been particularly nasty against lefties - this year over 15.1 IP he's given up 8 hits, walked three, hit two, and struck out 26. Also has a 12.0 K/9 vs righties.
  14. LouisEly
    Does anyone else think that little whistle tune that the Yankees play after someone strikes out sounds like it came straight out of an X-Files episode?
  15. LouisEly
    The White Sox and A's are going to ask teams to overpay for Gray and Quintana right now because they don't have to trade them for three weeks. They are assuming some injury risk but only about five starts worth. Around the trading deadline the cost will go down, because if they are holding on to them past July 31st then they are assuming two more months of injury and performance risk and eating two months of value to another team. What it will take to acquire those players now is more than what it will take on July 30th. And if it's too much, then you hang up the phone and ask the Giants about Samardzjia, or the Marlins about Straily, or the Mariners about Paxton, or the Tigers about Verlander, or the Phillies about Hellickson, or the Blue Jays about Happ...
  16. LouisEly
    On the bright side, Zack Brown with another good outing. Looks like he's over the injury he was dealing with earlier this year. I really wonder how much value Garret Cooper has on the trade market. It's easy to assume little because he's never been a big-time prospect, he's playing in Colorado Springs, he's never put up double-digit HRs before, etc., but the reality is that none of us are scouts (well, a couple irregulars are) and none of us are GMs that evaluate players for a living. But he's putting up a damn impressive year. Yes, he has some huge home/road splits, but an .841 road OPS isn't bad at all. Also wondering why Yadiel Rivera is on the big league club and not Ivan De Jesus. Not saying IDJ is a barn burner, but Rivera has never hit worth a lick anywhere and never will.
  17. LouisEly
    Mariano Rivera gave up 71 home runs in his career, 59 as the Yankees closer. It happens to the best of them.
  18. LouisEly
    Corporate strategy - they forego the cost of international scouting, the competition for those assets (being outbid by the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc.), and the risk of spending that money on 16-year-olds who never develop in exchange for more established players who may not have as high of a ceiling. Given how many organizations blatantly disregarded the rules just within their own division (Red Sox, Yankees), I can't blame them one bit for not wanting any part of it.
  19. LouisEly
    Manaea would be a great target too, and probably could be had for the same as Gray; he has more control left, but less track record of success. The A's match up ridiculously well with the Brewers as a trade partner. They need a replacement now for Rajai Davis, could use a long-term replacement for Joyce, and are likely shopping 33-year-old Jed Lowrie and trying to sell high on 30-year-old Yonder Alonso. To fill those needs the Brewers have Ray (centerpiece of the deal, long-term CF solution), Cordell (short-term CF and long-term RH platoon for Olson), Dubon (replace Lowrie), Cooper (if they trade Alonso, another RH platoon for Olson), and long-term OF prospects (Harrison, Orimoloye, Z. Clark, T. Stokes, Lujano, Abreu), where they wouldn't have to give up a lot of pitching. I'm hesitant to give up Phillips because of the LH bat, would much rather give up Ray, but if including Phillips means sending less pitching to Oakland then I'm fine with it. If the Brewers have to give up one of the big four pitchers I'd prefer it be Ortiz (long term conditioning concerns), but then Manaea would have to come back in the deal.
  20. LouisEly
    The prospect vote doesn't happen until August, so he has all of July to get that 7.1 IP. (Fingers crossed he doesn't get injured.)
  21. LouisEly
    The Yankees announcers make Lepay look like Vin Scully
  22. LouisEly
    Four of the Cubs five starters last year were over the age of 30, and they were ridiculously healthy - they used the least number of starters of any team in MLB. That's luck. They have no starting pitching depth because they've invested all of their top picks in bats. Yes, they can sign it in free agency, but they have to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Braves, Tigers, etc., for free agent pitching and there is no guarantee they will get them.
  23. LouisEly
    Invest in better players = better product on the field = higher attendance/merchandise sales = increased revenue = projects that will yield dividends in the future. - Recent graduate from a Top-10 public university MBA program
  24. LouisEly
    I'm in alignment. I'd say either Diaz or Dubon. The last piece I'd throw in would be Cordell or, if they value him highly, Orimoloye, or both.
  25. LouisEly
    I'm 100% with you. What many don't realize is that the A's have nothing for OF prospects. Their highest ranked OF prospect is at #8 in their system and he started the year in the DSL. Their #15 is a 1B/OF who struggles against LHP and strikes out a lot and projects to be a platoon player. Their next OF is at #21. I think OFs, especially ones who can play CF, will have a lot of value to them. The reality is that the Brewers have a ton of OF prospects, plus Santana (only 24) on the major league roster. Some are going to have to be traded sooner or later, preferably while they still have value. That's my impetus for trading Ray now. I think he has more value now than he will two years from now. So who should the Brewers trade their OF prospects for and when? Why wait and risk them losing value? Why not trade for a pitcher under 30 with multiple years of control?
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