LouisEly

this from Mark Grace..."Wow! Maybe Bill Hall should be considered for a gold glove this year." Sutton fires back with, "Yeah, he had 9 errors in the month of May...." See, this is the other half of the equation that people overlook. It isn't just about offense; it is about defense too. Someone posted fielding stats, and they weren't much better than Braun last year. But we could put up with Braun's defense because his SLG and OPS were out of this world; we aren't as upset with Hardy and Weeks because their defense has been good. But you can't be lousy both offensively and defensively. That's what gets you to the bench.

Another major actor in Blazing Saddles now dead: Cleavon Little Slim Pickens Madeline Kahn Harvey Korman

Yesterday at the game I noticed Hall to be one of the first people to congratulate Branyan for his homer. I thought maybe Billy was starting to accept his role Funny how winning seems to cure a lot of problems. I understand his need to vent his frustration... it's better to do that than to keep it bottled up. Hopefully if the Brewers can continue on their hot streak and go 20-9 in June suddenly Bill will find his happy place, and they can deal with it this offseason. The team needs Hall; as others said, if Hardy or Weeks goes down for an extended period of time they will really need Hall. Hopefully Cameron and Counsell can have a talk with him in private and convince him of this. Dillon has next to no pop in his bat Cirillo didn't have a lot of pop in his bat either, but he put a lot of balls in play that found holes, had good plate discipline, and made a decent platoon guy later in his career. A lot of people around here called for his return the last two years also. Dillon is just as good at age 32 as Cirillo was.

Braun would be interesting in CF and would solve a lot of logjam problems, but I think he needs a couple of years of playing OF in general before transitioning there. I will say that, having personally played every position on the diamond at some point in a game growing up, that I felt the toughest positions were C and CF. Ironically I could catch fairly well and played there a lot, but I sucked as a CF - I felt it was a lot harder to judge balls coming straight at you than at the corner OF positions. Interesting that Cameron has an option year next year and Brantley is at AA. I tend to think that Cameron will be back and that LaPorta will start next year in AAA but come the end of May, a la Braun, LaPorta prolly will not still be in AAA. If LaPorta makes the jump and Cameron isn't back, I could see Braun-Hart-LaPorta as your starters, with TGJ or Kapler coming in as a defensive replacement in the 8th/9th with Hart sliding over to RF or LF. They may need the $10M that Cameron is due next year to sign Sheets, in which case I think your 2009 OF is Braun in LF and then some combination of Hart/TGJ/Kapler in CF and Hart/LaPorta in RF.

The truth is, Welch got P/O'd when he saw that he got dropped five spots in the Power 50, and he took it out today on the mound. "David's going to have to continue to be effective as a starter..." Yeah, I think he was today. 'Bout time Ryan got some love, but it seems like he has been jinxed since one Mr. Briggs pointed out his ERA. Katin lead the Southern League in HRs, RBIs, and SLG last year so I'm not ready to give up on him just yet. His best value though could be as an extra chip thrown in a trade to a team in need of power and willing to take a chance (San Francisco? San Diego?). The question for Iribarren, Crabbe, and Heether is whether or not Counsell will be brought back next year, and if not, how the Brewers plan to replace him. And if catching is an organization weakness, then how come we have two catchers in the top 10? Would it be a stretch to say that Brantley may be a Juan Pierre with a little less speed but better plate discipline? As maligned as Pierre is, the dude has played in 162 games five consecutive seasons and has four 200 hit seasons (and a fifth with 196). He ain't that terrible. Finally, I think it is a safe bet that come September 1st, Mr. Nelson will be on a plane to Milwaukee. You've earned it.

That's my boy!!! That's my boy!!!!!

Bill who?

As stated before, my categorization of "solid" and "All-Star" is by technicality - if they were named to an All-Star team they were put in the "All-Star" category, if not I classified them as a solid major leaguer. I thought about it a lot, but if I had put Hardy under "Solid major leaguer" then I would have had just as many (if not more) people tell me tell me that he was named to the All-Star team and thus is an All-Star. 2000 was tough to grade, and Hart was a great pick; however I expect at least one player like Hart from a draft (which makes it an average draft - a "C" in my book). The fact that Krynzel was the only other player who even made the big leagues brought it down from a "C", and it's debatable if that call up was earned or if it was a "let's see what he can do because we have no one else good". Had there been just one other average major leaguer in the draft it would have been a C+, maybe B-, but with no other major leaguers from a draft eight years ago makes it slightly below average. In fact, Hart might be the only one left from that draft still playing somewhere in anybody's system. I did not penalize them for drafting a player they did not sign - in fact I moved it from a B to a B+ because of Pence (I am a tough grader). They would have gotten "extra credit" if they had signed him. They signed other DFEs from that class, so I don't think it was so much Selig's tight purse strings.

I thought this was what the title of the thread was referring to. Branyan should buy FIPS season tickets.

(Note - the article says that this will be his ninth draft, so that means that 2000 was his first. If that is not correct let me know.) Even more than football, it takes several years to evaluate a baseball draft. Unlike football, only a handful will ever make it to the majors, and if you can get one all-star player and 2-3 solid/average major leaguers out of a draft you've done well. That being said, here's a look back at his first four drafts (number in parenthesis is the round taken): 2000 Draft - Grade: D+ All-Stars: none Solid major-leaguers: Corey Hart (11) Average major leaguers: none Cup of coffee: Krynzel (1 - #11) Still developing: none Corey Hart may yet creep into that All-Star category, but for now he is a solid major leaguer. Krynzel is a great example of why I don't like drafting high schoolers, especially slap-hitting high schoolers, in the first round. Side note - the Brewers drafted The Schwam (ok, not that Schwam, but he had a very good year at Beloit in 2001 before what looks like an injury in High Desert in 2002). Should have drafted: Chase Utley, #15 overall; John "Boof" Bonser, #21 2001 Draft - Grade: B All-Stars: JJ Hardy (2) (but not this year) Solid major leaguers: none Average major leaguers: Dennis Sarfate (9), Manny Parra (26) Cup of coffee: Chris Barnwell (25), Chris Saenz (28) Still developing: Brad Nelson (4), does Mike Jones (1 - #11) really count? Another example of why people don't like high school arms in the first round with Jones, but guys like Hardy show the upside of HS players. Hardy in reality is more like a solid major leaguer, but he has one All-Star under his belt so I put him there. Parra is still developing; for now an average major leaguer but still has upside. Nelson still has upside also; he and Parra could make this draft a B?. Saenz, despite his one great game, probably would have been an average ML pitcher, but Barnwell didn't look good in his very small sample. Sarfate also still has some upside, but no longer is with the organization. Should have drafted: Casey Kotchman, #12; Bobby Crosby, #25; Jeremy Bonderman, #26 2002 Draft - Grade: B+ All-Stars: Prince Fielder (1 - #7) Solid major leaguers: Average major leaguers: Dana Eveland (16) Cup of coffee: Callix Crabbe (12), Craig Breslow (26) Still developing: Tim Dillard (34) The one that got away: Hunter Pence (40) Fielder alone makes this draft at the minimum a B. After him, I don't think you could possibly have a bigger flameout than the rest of the picks in the first 10 rounds - Ballouli was the only one in rounds 2-10 to even make AA. Eveland may yet fulfill his promise, albeit with another organization. Dillard still has upside and may be an average to solid reliever. Breslow keeps bouncing around as a LOOGY. If they could have inked Pence this draft would have been an A. 2003 Draft - Grade: C+ All-Stars: Solid major leaguers: Weeks (1 - #2) Average major leaguers: TGJ (2) Cup of coffee: Taubenheim (19), Drew Anderson (24) Still developing: Palmisano (3), Heether (11), Stetter (16), Hinton (40) Weeks is a solid major leaguer with upside to be an All-Star, but I sort of expect that with the #2 overall pick. I am a TGJ apologist - it's hard to look good when you only get 1-2 ABs per week. He's still young and will be back, but his ceiling is probably an average major leaguer. Palmisano could still be a serviceable #2 catcher, Stetter could have a long career in the pen if he can find the strike zone again, Heether profiles as a utility bench player at best. Others are higher on Hinton than me.

I should also say that I wouldn't mind Lawrie at #16 if they could get some combination of Scheppers/Carpenter/Schlereth at #32 and #35, and if they start him behind the plate or at SS/3B (if they start him at 2B I will have a conniption). I am just sick of the Rogers/Krynzel/Jones/Brewer/Murray types that they end up coming away empty-handed with. The college players they have picked in the first round recently have just as high of a ceiling as the high-school players they've picked, except the college guys have been making it and most of the high school guys haven't. Fielder is an exception to the HS rule - he was generally regarded as the best high school bat to come out in the last 10 years and an 80 on the power scale, and the reason he was still there at #7 had nothing to do with hitting potential. He was practically a once-in-a-generation player. But for the rest, Gallardo has been great and definitely worth the pick (but again, a 2nd rounder, so no need for a HS in the first), Hardy is just an average ML SS, and their other 1st/2nd round HS picks have been busts. Davis Cooper is an interesting suggestion, and an astute observation about playing at Cal... he is like the Jordy Nelson of this draft for me - I don't want them to pick that position high in the draft, but if they do he would be the guy I want.

Is that because your hoping for a quick impact? Fielder debuted in the majors 3 years after he was drafted, Hardy 3 1/2 years, despite a major injury. I don't see a college player available at #16 who'll be significantly quicker to the bigs. No, it's because I think a college player is a safer bet, because of signability HS players tend to get drafted lower thus talented HS players can be found later in the draft, and I think the Brewers do a better job of scouting college players than HS. Looking at recent picks in the top 5 rounds: College: LaPorta, Lucroy, Farris, Gillespie, Errecart, Braun, Gamel (JUCO technically), Roberts, Wahpepah (JC), Baker, Weeks, TGJ, Palmisano (CC), "Mega" Thomas, Nic Carter, Steitz, Richardson, Henderson High School: Gindl, Jeffress, Brewer, Anundsen, Inman, Rogers, Gallardo, Salome, Fermaint, Opdyke, Fielder, Murray, Jones, Hardy, Nelson, Krynzel, Artman, Belcher, Hicks The argument that the best three pitchers that they've drafted since 2001 (Gallardo, Jeffress, Inman) in the top five rounds are all HS players technically is true, however the top two of that group were a 2nd and 1st rounder and the Brewers have not since 1999 drafted a college pitcher in the top two rounds. So I don't think that is an apples-to-apples comparison. The highest the Brewers drafted a college pitcher in that span was the 3rd round (Wahpepah, Thomas, Steitz). So the best pitchers in recent drafts should be HS pitchers because they've had higher picks there (Jeffress, Rogers, Gallardo, Jones). But of that group, only one (Gallardo) either has made the majors or is a sure bet to make the majors. Looking strictly at first round picks, the advantage goes to college players: College: LaPorta, Braun, Weeks HS: Jeffress, Rogers, Fielder, Jones, Krynzel I give Braun the slight edge over Fielder overall because Braun can play more positions (OF, 3B if needed). Jeffress is one step from smoking himself out of baseball for a year, Rogers and Jones are hurt and nowhere near making the majors, and Krynzel wasn't good enough to make it. Weeks has been solid (if underperforming), and LaPorta almost undoubtedly will be a solid major leaguer. If you extend it to the first two rounds it looks like this: College: LaPorta, Braun, Weeks, TGJ HS: Jeffress, Brewer, Rogers, Gallardo, Fielder, Murray, Jones, Hardy, Krynzel Looking at that, clearly the Brewers have a better track record with college players in the first two rounds than HS. Oh, by the way. The last college pitcher the Brewers drafted in the top two rounds? Ben Sheets. (And he made it to Milwaukee in less than two years.) I rest my case.

Hittracker measures it at only 400. It seemed like more than that to me too. Interestingly enough, the Braun homer off Papelbon earlier that day that anded in the 2nd row of the monster was measure at 399. That ball got out in about 1.5 seconds. I could see the Braun homer traveling almost as far as Hart's because of trajectory - you're right, Braun's got out in about 1.5 seconds and was just cresting when it got to the wall; I don't think I've ever seen HRs that were not starting to come down yet until Hart's and Braun's in the Boston series. The monster is a short porch though so it could be deceiving. But Hart's was up in the lights. I've never seen that before.

My thesis is complete!!

This thread needs to be archived. And The Four Horsemen of the 3TO Apocalypse t-shirts with Thomas, Deer, Sexson, and Branyan needs to be made.

I don't think Wheeler is in the same class with Green and Lucroy. Also, let's not forget about Lorenzo Cain. I wouldn't put any of those guys in the same class as Gamel or LaPorta, or Braun. I don't know that I would put any of them with the possible exception of Green in the same class as Nelson, Errecart, or Gillespie. Lucroy needs to prove it at a higher level, and Cain's production is not equaling potential. Despite a good month of May, Cain is still sitting there with a .741 OPS. There are some good players at A and A+, but not anyone I would put on a top 5 prospect list.

but between Gamel, Bell, Lucroy, Salome, Green, Errecart, Escobar, Cain and Gillespie you could make one heck of a May lineup Don't forget Brad Nelson and his .472 OBP in the month of May. Still only 25 - I'd take a Jaha type of career from him where he takes a while to recover from injuries which pushes his debut back to his mid-20's, but still has 3-4 very good seasons in the majors. And another guy who is quietly having a great season, although not considered much of a prospect anymore, is Laynce Nix. Not drawing a ton of walks, but now hitting .309 with seven HRs and a SLG of just under .500 (.495) for the season, .526 in the month of May.

BJ Surhoff made the transition to catcher, and he didn't have that big of a frame either. I'd start Lawrie at C; you can always move him from there. That being said, I don't know that I would want a HS player at #16. I wouldn't mind Lawrie at #32 or #35 though.

Deer was the first "3TO" player to have prolonged success in the major leagues. Wrong!!!! That would be the original of the Four Horsemen of the 3TO Apocolypse, Gorman Thomas! (The Four Horsemen of the 3TO Apocolypse - Gorman Thomas, Rob Deer, Richie Sexson, Russel Branyan).

I'm sure Prince's 470-foot blast in Houston last year is a conservative guesstimate since he was a visiting player. If Lance Berkman hit it, they'd probably say it went over 500 feet. Not to hijack the thread, but two slightly related questions: 1) How far did they estimate the "double" that Sexson hit off the pole in centerfield in Houston? That pole sits what, 430' from home and he bounced it off the pole halfway up? You can still see the mark on the pole. And since the pole is in play, it was not a HR. 2) How far did they measure the home run that Hart hit in Boston two weeks ago? I was there, and that puppy was up in the lights - literally, it crested in the lights above the Green Monster. I saw Prince's 465' blast that landed six rows from the top in Dodger Stadium last year; it was the hardest-hit ball I have ever seen leave a bat, but I think Hart's went farther.

And despite Turnbow's struggles, the Isotopes only score three all night. Nelson decided to get back on track after an 0-4 yesterday, going 2-3 with a double and two walks - on base 4 of 5 plate attempts. The sample size keeps getting bigger. One guy who's been quietly struggling has been Stephen Chapman. He's really struggled with finding hits and getting on base. Amazingly he has six triples already this year - perhaps his HRs in a tougher park/league are going for triples instead.

For the record: #16) Scheppers #32) Gillaspie #35) Schlereth - they need LHP coming out of the pen (but something tells me that battlekow hit the right pick - Team Canada never passes on a fellow countryman) #53) Putnam #54) Gose (even if he doesn't want to pitch Melvin loves the speed in CF, a five-tool prospect) #62) Lindblom or Weatherford - a closer to rush to the bigs #94) Jimenez (Edit - clean MRI puts Scheppers back in at #16; edit #2 - Schlereth is rising, probably won't be there at #35 so he flips with Putnam)

Gillespie's OPS now up to .925; two days in a row going 2-3 with a walk. Don't you wish that Errecart hit left and threw right, and not vice versa?

Wow. Still reasonably young (26) and so close... he was pretty well blocked though with Weeks, Iribarren, and Crabbe ahead of him. Not good power numbers but very good OBP. I wouldn't be surprised if there was something else going on (family to support)? Or perhaps it was a "strategic retirement" to get out of the organization because he was so blocked at that position. Best of luck to you Steve and thanks for your contributions.

Gillespie with #9. He is putting himself on the map.