The White Sox are in first with by far the best run differential of +71. They're 6th in runs and 3rd in HR, while 2nd in the ML in ERA. They're also top 10 in K's, BB's allowed and BAA. They'd seem like the "favorite" from here on out because of how well they've performed on both sides, yet Baseball Prospectus had them at 78 wins so they're likely over-performing. The Twins are only 1/2 game back after an 8 game winning streak. However, 5 have been against possibly the two worst teams in the NL in the Padres and Nationals. The other 3 were against the D'Backs at home, and they've been pretty bad for the past 2 months. They're somehow 8th in runs in the bigs, yet nowhere near the top in HR, OBP, or SLG. Is small ball working for them? Obviously Mauer and Morneau are quite good, but other than that their offense just seems so bland. Gomez can bunt and steal all he wants, but a .298 OBP is awful for a leadoff guy, or anyone for that matter. I know he's only 22 and will improve but I don't see how he's benefiting the team batting #1 right now. Their pitching has been pretty below average so far, but they do lead the majors in fewest walks allowed. Detroit got off to a horrendous start, but have won 13 of 17, including a sweep of the Chi Sox. They'd seem like the favorite to take over Chicago if anyone does but their pitching is still suspect. However Verlander has been much better since his bad April. Cleveland is apparently the second unluckiest team in all of baseball behind Atlanta. They have a positive run differential but are 8 games under .500 and in last place. Their pitching has been average, but their offense isn't near what many thought it would be. Hafner was awful before he got injured, and Victor Martinez doesn't have a HR after hitting 25 last year. They're still "only" 8 games out and I'd have to imagine they'll stay within a handful of games for a while. If they continue to struggle it'll be interesting to see what happens to C.C. Kansas City's really the only team you can count out, although they have won 9 of 10 games. Their offense is just way too bad to have a shot. I'm kind of surprised the White Sox still have a 71% chance at the division according to PECOTA. They've easily been the best team but I wouldn't be too surprised at all of the Tigers give them a serious run. I refuse to believe the Twins are good. What do they have, two hitters who are above league average? I'd think Cleveland has just as good a chance at this point as Minnesota.