Fear The Chorizo

Cubs are still the favorite to win the division until they fall into second place (if, not necessarily when), but I think the odds of them cruising to a near double-digit game division lead and championship are much lower than they were about 30 games ago, when there was alot of discussion on this board about rooting for the Cubs to win games against other potential contending teams. I think many of their fans just assume that once they get home, they'll go back to dominating teams - problem with that theory is they actually start playing some decent NL East teams and teams that hit lots of home runs - wrigley in August plays like a beer league softball park, which is going to make winning those games more difficult. whether Cub fans realize it or not, the Brewers have played much better than them for the last 2 months, and they aren't going anywhere.

Cub fans don't like to hear it, but the same argument they use to state that their team is much different than the one Milwaukee took 4 of 6 can be easily trumped by the difference in the Brewers' roster.

Harden at 110 pitches in the 7th, the first time he's been that high in a loooong time.....his stuff is sick when he's healthy though

I think this situation resolves itself within a few weeks - Of Suppan, Bush, and McClung, two of the three will be in the rotation and one will shift to a role as long relief/spot starter if Parra needs to skip a turn or rainouts-doubleheaders-lack of offdays put a strain on the pitching staff. What this ultimately boils down to is Yost deciding to pitch McClung against the Cardinals and get Bush two starts at home against the Astros and Cubs, while watching Suppan make a couple of starts to see if he's healthy and effective. If the home/road platoon thing lasts into August, then you have to question what Yost is thinking. I'm hoping that by then it's obvious what 5 pitchers the team wants to roll with the rest of the season.

his velocity was fine, but his command/control definitely wasn't. the change in his arm slot could very well have nothing to do with any sort of shoulder ailment, but it could be that he doesn't feel comfortable getting on top of the ball with that shoulder. Dropping the arm angle takes stress off the shoulder, and while pitchers are able to replicate velocity from the lower arm angle, it does start adding extra stress on the elbow, and takes alot of the vertical movement of sinkers and sliders away.

Here's a few things I hope to see occur during the upcoming 4 game set against the Cardinals. If these things can be accomplished by the Brewers, I see a 2-2 series split at the very worst: #1 - Unless walking him forces in the tying/winning run, the Brewers should give Pujols zero oppotunities to win the game with his bat...Pitch to him carefully with nobody on base, and take the bat out of his hands when situations call for it. The Cards have been getting some freakishly fortunate contributions from unexpected sources (see a walk-off grand slam by Aaron Miles), but force them to continue to rely on anyone other than Pujols. #2 - Don't allow Yost to attempt to get into a game of cat'n'mouse with LaRussa - I can't count how many times in a key situation that LaRussa has a pinch hitter announced knowing full well that Yost will make a pitching change to match up with that hitter, only for LaRussa to burn that pinch hitter and bring in the guy he actually wanted to hit in that spot. I think Yost gets pitchout-happy against the Cardinals, which tends to put the pitchers in predictable counts, too. #3 - Don't let Molina pick off any baserunners who aren't attempting to steal - make the Cardinal pitchers get 27 outs. #4 - Have a quick hook mentality during both McClung's and Suppan's starts - Yost is going to have Bush and Villy available to give them plenty of innings out of the pen if either starter is struggling. With how bad the Cardinal bullpen is, don't let a game get away if the starter doesn't look like he's pitching well just to get 5 innings out of him. #5 - Hide Mota's uniform from him for tonight's game, and DFA him to make room for Suppan prior to tomorrow's game. If Mota throws a single pitch in a game this series that's within 10 runs, it's one pitch too many, IMO. Any other additions the rest of you would like to see over the next four games?

Probably too insignificant an observation to focus on, but Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus recently wrote: "I watched Carlos Zambrano at the All-Star Game, as well as in his first start back, and his arm slot really worries me, because it's down where it was just before he hit the DL." His last start: 109 Pitches 6.1 IP 6 H 3 K 6 BB The big Z may be dealing with a cranky shoulder - he's already been on the DL once this season, and missing a couple of starts isn't going to completely rejuvenate him if there's something fatigued/strained in his arm. Couple that with Wood's blister and the DL time bomb that is Rich Harden and the Cubs' pitching depth may be taking a serious hit during the 2nd half of the season.

I agree with the sentiment that this "platoon" will probably be for 1-2 turns through the rotation, at which time the Brewers will know if Suppan is back to 100% AND pitching effectively enough to keep him in the rotation. In the mean time the Brewers will have either Bush or McClung available to be a long reliever that enters a game if need be, and they would essentially be pitching within a day of their regular turn in the rotation, since it's tough to envision short starts from C.C. or Sheets unless an injury occurs. Not exactly the best situation, but it doesn't mean the team bus is automatically going to explode on the way to the ballpark on days when Bush, McClung, or Suppan are slated to start. My guess is Parra will be given an extra day here and there to keep his arm fresh, and Bush, McClung, and Suppan will continue to shuffle starts in the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation, since I'm also sure that C.C. and Sheets are going to be starting every game possible on their regular rest, offdays be damned if they're feeling good.

I've also been surprised by how Braun is perceived to be atrocious in left field - he's not winning the gold glove there this year, but I think fans of opposing teams just assume he's awful defensively wherever he plays. Truth is, he's probably athletic enough to play in center if he would get better jumps on balls. He's plenty good to play in left, and I'd rate him ahead of every other starting left fielder in the NL central except for maybe Jason Bay. (Soriano, Lee, Dunn, and Duncan aren't exactly quality defenders). Braun catches the ball when he can make a play, and there have only been a handful of misjudged plays he's made that have kept outs from being recorded. The disappointment defensively with Braun moving to left hasn't been his defense, it's been the continued poor defense from Hall + Branyan over at third. The last time the Cubs actually played the Brewers, Gagne was still closing, Turnbow was still on the active roster, Mota was the 8th inning pitcher, nobody was hitting and Tony Gwynn was their primary pinch hit option. Since the world revolves around them apparently, it's no wonder why they picture the three stooges as prominent relievers in the current Brewer bullpen. For as much garbage as I hear from Cub fans about how the Cubs' team is so much different now than when they lost 4 of 6 against the Brewers earlier this season, I think the Brewers' roster is twice as different - and for the better.

"I would take that as an indication that the Brewers may not be able to catch the Cubs. " I would take two series splits against the Cards on the road and the Cubs at home as an indication that the division race is going to be tooth and nail close until the last game. There are 3 teams within 3 games of each other at the top of the NL Central, and they play each other plenty down the stretch to make those head to head matchups a deciding factor. Also, here are a few interesting bits of schedule info: Cubs - 3 games remaining against the NL West, against Arz this week Cards - 10 games remaining against the NL West, all against Arz and LA Brewers - 10 games remaining against the NL West, 7 against SD Cards - 20 games remaining against the NL East, none left with the Nats Cubs - 21 games remaining against the NL East, 3 left with the Nats Brewers - 14 games remaining against the NL East, 4 left with the Nats A three game lead can be easily attained by playing 7 more games against the weak sisters of the NL west to this point in the season, as the Cubs have compared to the Brewers and Cardinals. Kerry Wood's about to head to the DL this morning due to his blister problem, although retroactively it probably won't be for long if it heals within the next week. I live in Chicago, and they've pretty much started getting nervous this weekend. Their line of thinking is that they played so well to start the season that there's no way they should only be a few games up on two teams for the division lead, especially since they haven't really had a prolonged losing streak at any point this year. Talk radio has gone from how the Cubs will walk to the division title to what trade Hendry needs to make to counter the Ray Durham trade (seriously) in the matter of a weekend....they should get a break if they win their series against the Dbacks as the Brewers and Cards are beating up on each other, but they're starting to look at the four game series the end of this month at Milwaukee and that last week road trip to New York and Milwaukee as big question marks.

If Pena could consistently throw strikes, he probably is on the big league club when Riske and Gagne initially went to the DL. He has the stuff, but late inning relievers can't succeed long term by walking a batter per inning.

"My biggest disappointment is Weeks, just because my hopes for him this season were sky high. I look dumb after telling people he'd be an All-Star. Luck has a little bit to do with it, but he's not driving the ball enough" The excuse of hitting into bad luck has definitely worn thin on me as well when talking about Weeks - his BABIP may be unusually low, but lazy infield popups tend to bring that down quite a bit. Is it me, or does every ball that Weeks actually hits well directed between the third base line and straightaway left field? Hey Rickie, there's alot more fair territory to use - your refusal to take advantage of it probably has alot to do with why you tend to hit 0.200 for months on end.

Here's my take: The Brewers have problems with pitchers who have good enough command to consistently deliver marginal pitches that get called strikes by umps with liberal strike zones. I think the Brewers have faced these "whipping boy" pitchers more often with an ump with a big outside, or low and away corner, than an ump with a tight zone. Since they don't make an adjustment to go the other way with the pitch, or even adjust their position in the batter's box to take a marginal pitch away from a scrub starter and make him challenge hitters, starts turned in by Glendon Rusch-caliber starters turn into infield practice for the SS and 2B. You put Glendon Rusch out there with a typical Tim McClelland zone and a team that realizes what he's trying to do, and Rusch gets abused the 2nd time through the order, if not sooner.

If a pitcher strikes out 27 guys during the course of a game, he needs at least 3 pitches per hitter, or 81 total pitches. Averaging 4 pitches a hitters brings that total to 108. Unless it's a young, developing pitcher, the 100-pitch limit probably cuts outings too short for guys like Sheets and Sabathia - high strikeout guys, or guys with good enough stuff to miss bats even if they're trying to pitch to contact. I think it's important that pitchers are given the opportunity to throw 120-125 pitches in a game, if it gets the team through 8-9 innings. I think the problem is when managers try to squeeze 6 innings out of a starter, and that ends up still putting that pitcher at around 120 pitches. I think the big-pitch innings cause more a negative effect than a relatively large # of pitches spread out over more innings.

The Brewers' remaining schedule from a net standpoint is 198 games under 0.500 based on teams' current records - very significant, since 10 games against the Cubs (best win% in baseball, a +190 games net) remain on their schedule and it still looks that weak. The Cubs' remaining schedule? 44 games over 0.500 - very significant, since they obviously don't play themselves, so the fact they have a +.500 schedule while playing in the same division as Milwaukee and against only NL teams (the whole western division is sub 0.500) is interesting. The Cardinals? 71 games over 0.500, give or take a few games since I confused myself with their schedule around mid-september. Wouldn't want to be the Marlins... 43 games over 0.500 schedule, but that's including 6 remaining games against the nationals, who bring a net (-144 games below 0.500), that artificially deflates the Marlins' schedule strength...i.e., the Marlins can't beat the Nats 8 times in their final 6 games to make up for playing the Cubs, Phillies, Cards, and Mets a ton down the stretch.

Everyone regresses/progresses to the mean and finishes with an 81-81 record - brett favre decides to unretire after re-retiring with the Buccaneers, and ESPN names toledo, OH as titletown USA because a group of D&D'rs who loved mudhens hacked into their fan voting system and got really click-happy.

I'm pretty sure it's the players who vote for all of the pitchers, not the fans

what is kendall thinking

As much as we'd like to hope, the Brewers aren't going undefeated the rest of the season - while it always sucks to lose, I'm still happy that the Brewers will still have the best record in baseball since May 20th, even if they lose tonight. Still have one more shot here - let's make it interesting

"Is it me or does it always seem like the Brewers have the bottom of the order up in the 9th, in games the are trailing in?? " That was as good an oppotunity to score runs as there was all game...hardy's grounder nailing weathers prevented a run from scoring - Coco should have a fun inning, what with this ump's strike zone including 3 inches low and off the plate

Fielder gets himself out so much...swing at strikes!

Cameron saves two runs there - this has the look of one of those 45 games every mlb team loses during the course of the season...hopefully they can find a way to scratch some more runs out.

estrada has no chance to make that play - let's wiggle out of this one

strikes would be nice.

somebody make a play Brewers officially have no business winning this game - I do like Torres in this spot alot - whether it pans out or backfires, I'm giving Yost credit here for thinking outside the box a little