Fear The Chorizo

I just put bobblehead dolls of Bill Hall and Derek Lee on an 'electric football' field, and the Bill Hall bobblehead crossed the goal line first.

Judging by what the Mariners had to give up in order to land Bedard, if the Cubs trade for Roberts, they're really going to thin out pitching depth that could help out their roster in 08 (Gallagher and/or Kevin Hart). Also, trading for Roberts doesn't solve their SS problem, and it would basically force DeRosa back into a part-time, super sub role. I don't see the Orioles budging with their asking price for Roberts, because they could always wait until the trading deadline to move him and probably have more teams interested in acquiring him. Roberts is a good player, but whether he improves the Cubs' roster depends on what players the Cubs have to give up in order to acquire him.

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I think Kendall will be an upgrade over Estrada from an OBP and game-calling standpoint, but it says alot when the Cubs started an inexperienced and unknown Soto (to his credit he was raking when given playing time) in their first two playoff games, and Kendall saw limited action down the stretch in September. His improved NL numbers are mainly the case of two very good weeks that he had - the rest of the time he was a Cub, his numbers were very similar to what he was putting up in Oakland. I'm hoping for an offensive output form him between his career norms and what he did last season - if it's a better season than Estrada's 07, I'm happy. I also think us being overly optimistic on how great Kendall will be this season speaks volumes about the dearth of catching talent in the Brewer system. It's really Angel Salome, and old prospect in Palmaisano, and nothing else in the mid to high minors. With 7 top 100 draft picks this year, hopefully Doug can find some catchers for the organization.

the same has been said of Oswalt and Pedro - his analysis of expected slow regression as Yo ages has more to do with him not having the prototypical size that power pitchers possess. I think Yo is a different type of pitcher than that, and if he loses a couple of mph off his fastball as age wears his arm down, his secondary pitches and command are still good enough to be more than an innings eater.

I think part of the problem for Bush pitching out of the stretch is he can't vary his leg kick and delivery as much as he does from the windup. I think Bush gets a lot of mileage from changing how long he keeps that legkick working, varying arm angles in his delivery to righties, etc. He can't delay and vary things in his delivery with a guy on base, especially with the catchers the Brewers have had (or will have in Kendall) - they don't strike fear into opposing baserunners at all. Once Bush loses an element of deception, his stuff probably starts to look a bit more average, and much more hittable.

the Brewers have the luxury of giving Gamel a couple of seasons to develop at third base - if he doesn't show significant improvement, he could move to 1st or a corner OF spot, if and when free agency claims one of hart, braun, or fielder. If he can't play 3rd, I think the most value Gamel can have with the Brewers is trade bait, packaged with other high minor league prospects who are blocked in Milwaukee by better players at their position. By the time Gamel would have a roster spot in the big leagues, he'll be approaching minor league free agent status.

the Brewers have the luxury of giving Gamel a couple of seasons to develop at third base - if he doesn't show significant improvement, he could move to 1st or a corner OF spot, if and when free agency claims one of hart, braun, or fielder. If he can't play 3rd, I think the most value Gamel can have with the Brewers is trade bait, packaged with other high minor league prospects who are blocked in Milwaukee by better players at their position. By the time Gamel would have a roster spot in the big leagues, he'll be approaching minor league free agent status.

Brewer fans have been hoping for a healthy year from Sheets ever since 2004, so expecting him to be healthy all of 2008 is a stretch. I don't care whether his injuries are related to his arm or not - he's had all kinds of problems that have kept him from taking the ball every 5th day, simple as that. Even if he stays healthy all season, the injury history doesn't go away - he could get 16 mil a season, but contract length will probably be limited to 3 seasons at that amount. Regarding Santana's deal, it's going to be interesting to see what this deal looks like 3-4 seasons from now - Santana's been able to stay healthy for his career, but he's pitched a ton of innings over the past 3-4 seasons. The deal compared to Zito's is great right now, but long-term deals (5 yrs +) given to pitchers don't have a history of working out to well for organizations - (Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Zito)

The Mets landed Santana - yay for them, but aren't we giving their roster a little too much credit? Pedro Martinez is not the Boston Pedro - he'll be lucky to make over 1/2 a season's worth of starts while dealing with arm problems. The back end of their rotation is really inconsistent, and in El Duque's case, 50 years old. The little depth they had with young starters in the minor leagues is mostly now in Minnesota. They have a solid bullpen on paper, but injuries have plagued their pen, and Billy Wagner isn't a spring chicken any more. Delgado's power numbers regressed big time last season, and Alou can't play every day. Their lineup is still very good, but defensively, age and injuries are starting to limit their abilities (with the exception of Reyes and Wright, obviously). the Mets have a very good roster and a very good chance to get to the World Series - if none of their regulars get injured. They have plenty of big names, but aside from Santana, this team absolutely choked the division away last September. They remind me more of the Mets teams with Mo Vaughn, Robbie Alomar, Burnitz, and other big name players who couldn't stay on the field and really underperformed.

Sending Parra to the minors is looking past 2008. While that's true, I don't know how important keeping Parra's major league service time down will be 3-4 seasons from now, when the current roster will be loaded with contract/arbitration angst, and several of our "core" players will be playing elsewhere. While it's important for small market teams to keep their youngsters around as much as possible to build a team from within, they also have to do as much as possible to contend during their 'window'. IMO, keeping Parra in the minors this season because Sheets probably won't be resigned next year doesn't make sense if he's a better pitcher than several of their other starters - not if they view 2008 as their best chance to win. I don't see multiple trades happening in order to open up a spot for him on the 25-man before opening day, but I'd really hope that the Brewers are thinking of calling him up around the July 31 trade deadline, similar to what they had planned for Gallardo last season (until Sheets got hurt, Capuano was on the DL, and the rest of the rotation decided to stink, warranting Yo to get called up a few weeks earlier than anticipated).

there just has to be a trade or two in spring training involving the glut of #6 starters this team has - I for one don't like the idea of having to send Parra to the minors just because he has minor league options left, especially if he outperforms the likes of Capuano, Bush, and Vargas. I think Melvin's praying for some arm troubles of opposing teams, so he can deal some Brewer arms for low to mid-level prospects - he's not going to get equal value for any of Bush, Cappy, or Vargas anyway, but getting at least something instead of losing a veteran arm through waivers would be ok.

So, is it safe to say that if Bud hadn't moved the Brewers to the NL a few years back that this thread's title would be "Can we continue discussing how much better the AL is than the NL?"

The AL had 4-5 teams that would probably have been better than any team in the NL (Red Sox, Yankee, Indians, Tigers, and Angels). While the AL also had some true doormats, it can be argued that the number of 'solid' NL team records were inflated due to them playing against each other. The NL looked alot like what the typical NFL season resembles - 80% mediocrity, 10% really good, 10% really bad. The NL central was widely regarded as the weakest division in baseball, even though it has 6 teams playing in it. what would the record of any one of the 4-5 quality AL teams have been had they played in that division?

I think the issue people have with Turnbow isn't that he only had a certain percentage of bad outings compared to so many more dominant outings, it's that for the past two seasons after the all-star break, he has really struggled. Part of the blame can go to Yost to "burning him out" by pitching him in every high-leverage late game situation, but most of the blame has to go to Turnbow (Cordero was also in many of those games, and he was solid throughout the season). It seems that when the calendar's rolled into July the past two seasons, Turnbow forgets how to throw a slider for a strike, or even command his fastball. His stuff is so dominating that once he starts struggling with command, hitters are going to sit with the bat on their shoulder and make him throw strikes. I think his 2nd half struggles have more to do with him being a mental midget than arm fatigue or other physical factors. Getting the amount of bullpen arms with decent career numbers that can be late-inning options, I think, is the largest overall improvement of the roster compared to 07. Since this is a thread talking about the biggest impact of an individual player, I gotta go with Cameron - 25 game suspension or not, his signing moves Hall to third and Braun off third, drastically improving the defense at two key positions (CF and 3B), while allowing one of their best hitters the luxury of moving to a position that a good athlete like Braun can play well.

i like the fact that we have a ton of options for the bullpen right now - not all of them are going to pitch lights out, but I think the depth of solid arms in the pen is much better than last season. we had cordero, turnbow for most of the time, and then a conglomeration of question marks, especially if Shouse needed to get multiple outs against righties to get through innings.

Padres are closing in on Scott. Mets already have Church. Braves are closing in on DeJesus. Cubs rumored close to getting Teahan. LF options are being snapped up all over. Whatever happened to Randy Winn? LF options that couldn't come close to the offensive production Braun could give as a left fielder if the Brewers can acquire a solid third baseman that is adequate offensively and good defensively. Last I checked players like Kearns, Kemp, Ethier, Ibanez, Swisher, haven't been traded yet, and their names keep surfacing as being available - if you're looking for other outfielders for the Brewers to trade for. Based on Braun's year defensively at 3rd in 07, I don't see how looking for a third baseman isn't a better option.

All I know is if a guy with Joe Borowski's stuff can lead the AL in saves, the closer position is way, way overrated and overpaid. Relief pitching is so volatile from one year to the next that it's bad business for a small market team to shell out a large % of its payroll to its bullpen. The key for small market teams to produce good bullpens is its farm system - young, inexpensive power arms who either break into the bigs in the pen prior to starting, or are groomed in the minors to be a reliever. Right now that's the glaring weakness that Milwaukee's organization has - they have a dearth of bullpen arm talent in their minor leagues. Waiver wire, Rule 5, and scrap heap pickups can only go so far.

The relation I want to make with the Brewers is that Fielder, Braun and Weeks are not great fielders and that Colorado tried it the way we are and decided that fielding was more of a priority while we think fielding will come around. I agree with you, but the only thing I want to add is that in order to win at Coors Field, you need to have a great defensive team, moreso than playing at Miller Park. Coors field has such an expansive outfield, and the infield plays notoriously fast - pitchers have enough trouble dealing with the altitude, adding to their troubles by committing errors and having limited defensive range turns their job into a nightmare. Judging by their home/road record disparity over the past two seasons, the Brewers have a roster that can play more than well enough at home - maybe part of their problem on the road is that the ballparks that give a distinct advantage to pitching and defense expose Milwaukee's weaknesses. Specifically from 07, I'm thinking Petco, whatever San Fran's park is now called, Dodger stadium, Coors Field, PNC (difficult place to hit for righties), RFK, Turner field - the Brewers were bad for many other reasons on the road everywhere they played, but they got flat-out dominated in games they played in these parks to the tune of a 5-22 record!

All the more reason to put Gwynn (who's bat I am not a fan of) in CF, Braun in LF and Hall, a middle IF type, at 3b. I would also like to see the organization go this route, rather than spending 10 million+ per year for a free agent outfielder or third baseman and have those dollars limit the amount of money that the Brewers can spend on acquiring/extending pitching and eventually signing as many of the young, pre-arby players currently on the Brewers' roster several years from now. If the Brewers don't think Gwynn is an everyday outfielder, they can sit him on days when a lefty pitcher starts, move Hart over to center, and put a Mench, Dillon, or another RH outfield bat out in RF. On the days when Gwynn isn't the lineup, he becomes a valuable asset as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. The Brewers have plenty of offense to make up for the perceived lack of Gwynn's bat if he's playing good D in center, and allowing both Hall and Braun to improve the overall team defense by playing in different positions. (Braun may struggle in left, but a cardboard cutout of his likeness in LF would be a better team defender than what he did at 3rd in 07).

Since the addage of 'pitching and defense wins' has been around basically since baseball was invented, I don't think his statement or the fact that the Rockies were able to get to the point they have in this season should be a huge shock . Media coverage has put such an emphasis on great offensive baseball players that oftentimes the defensive half of the game is completely overlooked. After watching both Colorado and the D'Backs play this postseason, it's obvious that the talent of their young players shines both in the batters box AND out in the field. I look at it this way - I would say that Braun, Fielder, and Weeks are great young hitters. I would say that Tulowitzki, Drew, Young, and Holiday are great young baseball players. With that all said, it speaks alot to the balance of the NL that Colorado needed a TGJ triple and a 163rd game after finishing the season so hot just to get into the postseason.

The other point we are not making in this discussion is that Hall plays terrible D in CF compared to his peers -- so by moving Hall to 3b, we are not only upgrading 3b but CF as well. So who would take over in center? The only player currently on the Brewers' roster that is an upgrade defensively to Hall in center is Gwynn. Even with the poor season Hall had offensively, he's still a better hitter than Gwynn ever will be. Hart is an above average right fielder, but I don't like how he goes back on balls in center field (remember the pirates games right after Hall was injured? Hart has to play a deep outfield, which would lead to a ton of bloop hits finding the green if he played center). Even if you move Hart to center, who then takes over right that's a great defensive outfielder for the Brewers? My point is that if you move Hall back to third, yes it improves their IF defense at 3rd, but then you're opening up a whole different can of worms regarding the outfield defense. Braun's never played OF, Hart would go from an above average right fielder to an average to below average CF, and in right you don't know who's gonna be there. It's improving one area and taking 2-3 steps back in other areas. If the Brewers move Braun to left, they need to acquire either a 3B or a CF that is a very good defender, via trade or free agency. If they pick up a CF, then you move Hall back to third - if they pick up a 3B, Hall stays out in center. I think Hart's too good a right fielder to mess with moving him over to center and leaving a defensive hole out in right.

If Carlos Lee and Barry Bonds can play LF I am sure Braun can adjust to it. I'm sure Braun could adjust to playing LF as well as Carlos Lee and Barry Bonds play it...in fact I'm sure that just about anyone who can afford a glove and sunglasses can play LF as well as Carlos Lee and Barry Bonds currently do. Moving a poor defensive infielder into the outfield doesn't guarantee that he'll be any good defensively either. Slightly weakening the outfield defense while significantly improving the infield defense would be something that I'm all for, as long as Braun can be serviceable in left. I think the only way Braun moves to left next year is if the Brewers make a trade or sign an everyday third basemen with above-average defense and a serviceable bat they can slot in the #7 hole. I don't see Hall moving back to third after the Brewers spent an entire year letting him learn the position out in Center. One interesting option for them may be Joe Crede - assuming he's healthy from back surgery and that the Sox are content with giving Josh Fields the 3B spot on the south side. (correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he'll be eligible to become a free agent after the 08 season?) When healthy, he's a very good defensive 3rd baseman, but he's offensively challenged at times. His recent struggles are probably related to the fact that his back has been bad the past two seasons, so the only way I want him here is if he's fully recovered from the surgery. I would think his trade value is at an ideal low for Melvin to acquire him without giving up too much (since he really has no place on the Sox '08 roster), as long as he's healthy.

He really doesn't -- he is 23. He may be able to incrementally improve, but you are looking at a large part of what we are going to get. He's 23, but he hasn't played 3rd for his entire baseball career - he was a SS while at Miami, and I'm sure back to his H.S. days. The difference between fielding the position at short and at third is much larger than the length of the throw across the diamond - 3rd basemen have to have awesome reflexes to be able to field both rocket shots down the line, as well as reading and reacting to slowly hit dribblers and bunts to get themselves in a position to make the "do or die" barehand grab/throw to first to get a runner speeding down the line. Not saying it's the correct thing to do, but this organization stuck with Weeks at 2nd while he's "developed" from a brutal to a poor defensive 2B(I think he's one of the best 2B in baseball at turning the double play with his arm strength...fielding and range are still bad though). Braun by no means will ever develop into a GG caliber 3B, but people have to remember that if it weren't for his unbelievable bat, he'd probably still be in A/AA working on improving and developing defensively at 3rd (He wouldn't have been a top 10 draft choice if he couldn't hit, obviously). Whether BFnet.com likes it or not, Braun will be the opening day starter defensively at 3rd in 08, and Hall will still be in CF. If Braun shows no signs of incremental improvement in 08, then I can see making the switch to a corner OF spot with him. I'd be fine with him in left next year too, but I think the Brewers' management is going to do the same thing that they did with Weeks' situation, whether that be good or bad for the Brewers in the long run remains to be seen. I think the Brewers need to hire the Crime Dog (McGriff) to take Braun, Weeks, and Fielder under his wing, give them some adjustable foam hats, and have them fielding grounders and throwing into garbage cans Tom Emansky style all offseason - that would be the best way to improve Milwaukee's team defense. http://sportsmed.starwave.com/i/magazine/new/emanski_mcgriff.jpg

There are several: Bill Hall - let's hope this year is the aberration to his career, not 2006 Turnbow - two straight seasons where he obviously tailed off during the 2nd half of the season Capuano - say what you will about shoddy defense and some of his tough-luck losses, he was also spotted plenty of runs in some of his other starts that ended up being L's...for a guy who was supposed to be our second best starter, he sure did pitch like #2 Sheets - 3 years into his four year contract, and we still haven't seen a full, productive season from him. wheter he's injury prone or just had rotten luck when it comes to his health, anything that keeps him from taking the ball every 5th day is disappointing. Menchkins - the combined 12-13 million per year platoon severely underperformed, even though it was set up for them to excel in their roles...they as players probably never were able to adjust to their roles on the team. Pitching/infield/outfield coaches - While the defense has been putrid, so has the scouting/defensive positioning for opposing hitters. And either the relievers don't incorporate Maddux's teachings, or he's preaching the wrong message...or he's preaching to the wrong choir. As you can see, the disappointments are all veterans on this team who were plenty quoteable at the start of the season when they dreamed of getting into the playoffs...I think that may say alot about how they as players can perform under a prolonged pressure situation like an extended pennant race (not including Sheets in that blanket statement, injuries are injuries).