So, to put this in terms of the playoff probability projections, on August 27, according to FanGraphs, the Yankees had a 97.8% probability of making the playoffs. To use the terminology some have used on this site, it was “statistically over”. The Blue Jays on the other hand had a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. They were statistically dead. Now, two weeks later, the Yankees probability is at 53.8% and the Blue Jays are at 45.4%. Just another reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly things in baseball can turn around. Now, maybe the Yankees will straighten out and claim a wild card berth. But if nothing else, this shows that a probability of 95% or more in baseball does not guarantee anything, and that a certain amount of that 95% includes scenarios that rabid fans will might not find very enjoyable. Like the Brewers in 1982 and 2008 who saw seemingly comfortable situations turn into final day nailbiters. That's why it was 97% and not 100%.