Harold Hutchison

How about: Brewers get: RHP Chris Archer RHP Alex Colome SS Willy Adames OF/1B Joe McCarthy LHP Travis Ott Rays get: OF Domingo Santana SS Orlando Arcia RHP Brandon Woodruff RHP Phil Bickford

It is also questionable whether Adames even has the defensive mettle to stay at SS. A lot of scouting reports say that if he stays there, his defense would be below average. Most are profiling him as a 2B. While that is also a position of need for the Brewers, I'm not trading a 23-year-old SS who is maturing with the bat and is already close to All-World on defense unless I'm sure that Dubon can handle SS at the big league level. I think you're missing the point: Unless Arcia's bat really improves, he's not worth what he will get in later arby years, much less free agency. Arcia regressed from an OPS of roughly .800 at Biloxi to .723 at Colorado Springs, arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of professional baseball. That's still a huge red flag. The .731 OPS, by the way, is only that high because of a .848 OPS for the month of June. No other month in his major league career has been higher than .759 in that department.

If the Crew gets Adames, they get a young SS with better OBP skills. He'd be 22. Right now, Arcia is cheap, and he's OK. The problem is, I'm not convinced about the bat - Arcia gives me a Royce Clayton vibe, and in 2003, Clayton wasn't worth $2 million a year, not when the Crew could have re-signed Jose Hernandez. Let someone else pay Arcia $10 million a year as a good field no hit shortstop. Milwaukee can't afford that. Better to get Adames, who brings more offense to the table.

Part of the goal was to get a TOR guy (Greinke) for only $15 million a year. The rotation at the start of 2018 is Greinke, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter. The Crew can take their time with Nelson, I'll go toe-to-toe with the Darvish-led rotation of the Cubs with that rotation. Suter can handle the Cubs just fine - he pitched 12 and a third innings against `em allowed one run, ten hits, and one walk. The price for that was Arizona gets Arcia and Archer and Nottingham. I've had enough questions about Arcia's bat since he posted a .723 OPS at Colorado Springs that I'm cool with dealing him. The Brewers, OTOH, shoot Tampa a cheap replacement for Archer (Woodruff), and Santana to be their DH (upgrade over Duda), and the Rays get a pitching prospect a year or two away in Taylor Clarke (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=clarke000tay), Arizona's 3rd-rounder in 2015. Now, Tampa filling their DH and getting a young starter with some upside from the Crew, well, a fiar return is Adames (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adames000wil), Joe McCarthy (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=663411) is a cheap replacement for Thames in two years with VERY good OBP skills, and Travis Ott (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=643477) could be another Josh Hader at worst. Plus Arizona throws in Ryan Atkinson (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=atkins001rya), who is probably a year or two away. The 25-man roster: 2b: Villar cf: Cain rf: Yelich 1b: Thames lf: Braun 3b: Shaw c: Pina ss: Adames pitcher bench: Vogt, Perez, Sogard, Phillips, Aguilar rotation: Greinke, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Logan, Jeffress, Albers, T. Williams, Gallardo

How about this, modifying my earlier three-team proposal involving Tampa Bay and Arizona? Brewers get: RHP Zach Greinke from ARI (pay $15 million of salary through contract) RHP Taylor Clarke from ARI OF/1B Joe McCarthy from TBR LHP Travis Ott from TBR RHP Ryan Atkinson from ARI TBR gets: OF Domingo Santana from MIL SS Sergio Alcantra from ARI RHP Brandon Woodruff from MIL ARI gets: RHP Chris Archer from TBR RHP Phil Bickford from MIL C Jacob Nottingham from MIL

I've always seen Suter as a Jamie Moyer type, maybe the potential to be Sharpie or Capuano at their peak...

Pretty much, it helps them stay the same in 2018 as they were in 2017. Only the names have changed. Worse, they are getting older, and their farm system is depleted.

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring. Woodruff still has options. Suter, I think, still has a couple of options. At this point, rolling with Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, and Woodruff makes sense. When Nelson returns, he replaces whichever one of Suter/Woodruff is faring worse (or replaces an injured pitcher - Anderson, Suter, and Woodruff spent time on the DL). But it is just as likely that Suter and Woodruff could take steps forward the way Davies did from 2016 to 2017. Just look at the numbers again: Davies: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017 Suter: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9 Woodruff: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9 If Woodruff improves the way Davies did, that's a plus. If Davies takes another step up, that also is a huge plus. Furthermore, if Suter is not having to do the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffles, maybe he goes from a guy who only goes five to a guy who can go six or seven, and that is another plus.

No, IMO all the 6th year does is lower the AAV against the luxury tax. I never thought he would get anything less than $125 million, I just thought it would be for five years. I was really hoping the Cubs would be on the hook for a higher AAV if they landed Darvish, I think they did a nice job to keep the annual commitment down. Still waiting until we get details on the opt out clause, that is something he had reportedly been looking for, and something I thought the Brewers might get creative in offering. McCalvy pointed out that the Cubs beat out the Brewers on both Quintana and Darvish over the past half year. I don’t doubt the Brewers are serious about adding a difference maker to their rotation, I just don’t see that difference maker being available via free agency with Darvish now off the board. The sky isn’t falling by any means, but this also reinforces that the Brewers aren’t likely to assemble a roster that can compete with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals in the NL this year. Or they think that the difference makers are already in the system or can emerge from the roster. Davies is 24. He's being talked about as a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com. Woodruff is 24, and did reasonably well - he was sub-4.00 ERA until his last start of 2017 against Cincy. Suter posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. Corbin Burnes has been dominating in the minors. Luis Ortiz is still in the system Bubba Derby had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts with Colorado Springs Angel Ventura had a 4.06 ERA over 14 games (13 starts). With the exception of Suter, all were 24 or younger in 2017. All AA or higher at some point.

How so? 6 years sounds like a lot but 21M per is far under even the most conservative projection. I'd agree. The later years may be a mistake, but one the Cubs can easily absorb with a big market. Did the Crew only offer four or five years? In any case, looking at ERA, WHIP, etc., I'm not sure that Darvish would have been that much better than Davies over the long haul. Maybe it's time to give Davies an extension - say, six years, $65 million?

I hope not. Darvish wouldn't have cost a pick. Arietta sends one to the Cubs.

Troy Stokes I think there is a physical resemblance to Jose Altuve - Stokes is 5'8" 182 pounds. While he plays outfield as opposed to the middle infield, Stokes has shown speed (95 career SB) and good OBP skills (156 BB in 1211 ABs). He's recently developed more power (20 HR in 2017, 9 the previous three years). I think offensively and defensively, he comps to Brady Clark as a floor, but he could be a home-grown Christian Yelich.

I wouldn't rule it out but Guerra returning to close to his 2016 form can't be dismissed either. He had to overcome not just an injury last year but coming off his 2016 he was bound to press if things didn't go right early on. Now he's back as an afterthought for many. That is a possibility, but Guerra is 32, and while I'd never say never, the odds are not in his favor. That said, it does raise the point- the Brewers have some real depth in the rotation. I think the Crew can afford to take their time. They don't need to deal a ton of prospects or shell out a nine-figure deal for a TOR guy. Corbin Burnes may well emerge as one in the 2019-2022 timeframe. A more useful approach might be to try and extend Davies, and if they do break out, Woodruff and Suter.

It's because he's irrationally attached to Suter. I get it, Suter is a fun story, and one of those guys you root for. He's got a fun personality, and really seems to be a competitor on the mound. We all get irrationally attached to certain players sometimes. Mine is Brett Phillips. It's to the point where I want the team to trade an .830 OPS 25-year-old who slugged 30 HRs last year, and make a guy that will go down as a Top 3 player all time in team history switch positions at 34 years old, in order to get Phillips into the starting lineup on a regular basis. I'm looking at some numbers: The following were posted by a pitcher which MLB.com listed as a dark horse Cy Young Candidate: 1.354 WHIP 9.6 H9 2.5 BB9 5.8 K9 Suter's numbers: 1.286 SHIP 9.1 H9 2.4 BB9 7.1 K9 If Suter gets a shot at starting (none of this bullpen/rotation MLB/AAA shuffle from the last two years), I think he does about as well as Davies. His ERA was about a half-run lower than that of Davies.

This is a very good post. The Brewers don't need to rush out and sign a TOR guy. It would be nice, it would make a World Series berth very likely with the other moves, but for the long term, a Darvish or and TOR guy is not a necessity. Here's a little thought experiment: Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017 Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9 Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9 Pitcher A is Zach Davies. Pitchers B and C are projected as competing for the back end of the rotation spots. B is Brent Suter, C is Brandon Woodruff. I would not be surprised if one or both of Woodruff/Suter had a breakout season in 2018.

I'll take two 5s (and Woodruff's ceiling is absolutely higher than that) making $1 million combined over two 3/4 starters in their 30s making $30 million combined. I think both have higher ceilings than #5. A healthy Woodruff is a likely high-end #3 starter. Rarely blows up, usually gives six innings or more. Suter... I'm of the opinion he could be as good as a high-end number 2. He has the control and command Davies does, and he is left-handed as well. He also has been, I think, consistently underestimated by many. Is it the 31st-round draft pick? Is it the fact he's a junkball pitcher? I think if he is in the rotation all year, he could break out like Davies did in 2017. To date, he has beaten huge odds - I doubt that many people expect a junkball pitcher taken in the 31st round of the June draft to make the majors.

Yelich is my favorite move of the off-season. A very good player who I think will fare better with a more... inviting right field. I think some long singles in Miami become doubles, and I think he'll also have a lot more homers.

Deal Aguilar, use Thames as a backup LF/1B/RF - you can work him 60-80 starts between injuries, days off, and games where the Crew will have a DH.

Looking back at the 2013 draft, I think Taylor Williams is likely to emerge as a very solid bullpen asset. What is the deal with Devin Williams?

Lucroy as the primary and Pina as the backup would be an upgrade at catcher. Think about it this way: * Lucroy catches 100 games, Pina 60 * Lucroy plays 10-15 games at first as Braun DHs * Braun plays 110 games at first * Santana in RF, Yelich LF * Thames kept as backup 1B/LF/RF, 30-40 starts at first, maybe 10-15 in left, 10-15 in right * Aguilar on the move somewhere for a pitcher

I am in favor - for the following reasons: 1. I think it is still a wash in terms of innings - the AL pitchers don't have to be pinch-hit for, but they face better hitters. 2. The strategy is still in the mix. Yes, the DH takes out the double-switch, but pitcher use is still a factor. 3. I think it does reduce the chance of pitchers getting hurt doing something they rarely do. 4. I would favor a modification - allowing the DH only as long as the starter is in. Then, they have to replace the DH with pinch-hitters.

Brewers get: RHP Zach Greinke from ARI (pay $20 million of salary through contract) SS Willy Adames from TBR OF/1B Joe McCarthy from TBR LHP Travis Ott from TBR RHP Ryan Atkinson from ARI TBR gets: OF Domingo Santana from MIL RHP Taylor Clarke from ARI RHP Phil Bickford from MIL RHP Brandon Woodruff from MIL ARI gets: RHP Chris Archer from TBR SS Orlando Arcia from MIL C Jacob Nottingham from MIL

The comparison by the numbers are different. The results between the two are relevant moving forward. If Nelson returns healthy pitching as he did last year, he's better than Archer as he's now got 3 quality pitches and improved control of that quality. Archer,s a 2 pitch pony. One pitcher is improving, the other isn't, so whereas Archer puts up #2 stuff in his past and Nelson #3.5, his improvement lifted him to #2 and that bolds well as he ages. Archer's stale progression has aging problems moving forward. Velocity drop the largest with injury concerns 2nd most. I'd be willing to go with one of two base packages: Santana, Barnes/Bickford, and Wilkerson for Archer OR Santana, Aguilar, Bickford, and Nottingham for Archer, LHP Travis Ott, OF/1B Joe McCarthy, and IF Robbie Tenerowicz

No, not all of us people. I don't overvalue prospects and I wouldn't trade Burnes/Phillips/Santana+ for Chris Archer. Not sure who he gives so much value to, but I don't think it is us. The loss of Santana is worth at least 2 WAR on offense, I believe Burnes makes a decent impact next year so we lose value there, and losing both Phillips/Santana together is a huge hit when a OFer goes down. Add in the increase in payroll Archer brings what exactly are we gaining? I don't even know if Archer has a big positive impact next year and every year after I don't think it will trend up. Chris Archer is a terrible target. Not a big impact, but a big impact on what we give up with most of it potentially on the MLB team or MLB ready? Of course I am going off a rumored "what it will take". If it involves lower in the farm guys it changes things a lot. However we are talking about a lot of guys who are already helping us or that will early into the time we would control Archer. That kind of trade seems primed as something we will regret. I agree. He's a bit like Jimmy Nelson, kind of a top-end #2 starter. The Brewers already have Nelson, Anderson, and Davies as #2s. Chacin is a #3. You have Woodruff and Suter as #3/#4 types. I think the Crew gave up a lot already for Yelich. Archer's going to have a high cost - and for what? An extra #2 starter? Yeah, he only costs $25 million over the next four seasons, but the money isn't the only cost the Brewers will pay. He's not worth a likely package of Santana, Phillips/Erceg, and Ortiz/Burnes. I'd rather assemble a smaller package to get Bauer.

I',m gonna hope that the PBTNL is Lamar Sparks, a 2017 draft pick. He's a CF who has a very interesting OBP/speed combo of tools (33 BB to 145 AB, 11-for-14 in stolen bases).