I have an accountant friend who used the "if they only play .500 ball" logic back in what was is 2006 or '07 when they started out really hot. I kept telling him that teams have hot and cold streaks. I figured they were around a .500 team, and a hot start doesn't change that... it really only makes it more likely that they'll trade for a player mid-season rather than trading away players. Because he started thinking playoffs early in the season, he got really mad when the team played under .500 ball the rest of the way and missed the playoffs. I feel the same about this year's team. I felt before the season that if everyone stays healthy and some things fall their way, they could fight for a Wild Card spot. I still feel the same way. They will have some losing streaks that will even out this hot start, and at the end of the year if they continue to stay healthy and the very young and very old players don't wear down as the season progresses, they will probably be in the Wild Card race. The one outlier is whether this hot start means they will trade away some of their few decent prospects for a rental player. I guess I'm just saying to enjoy the team and the success they're having, but don't get too high on the good times, as it can lead to frustration (borderline depression) when they have their inevitable cold streaks. Your friend was right. You are falling prey to the gambler's fallacy. Its the idea that after an event a random occurance has to lean the other direction to make up for it. For example, if you have a fair coin (that you know is fair) and you are going to flip it 10 times. You expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. You then flip 5 heads in a row. The gambler's fallacy says the next flip is likely to be tails to even things out so you get 5 tails. But it isn't more likely to be tails, the probability hasn't changed: 1/2 heads, 1/2 tails. So that said, if you expected the Brewers to be a .500 team coming into the year, after the start there is no reason to expect the Brewers to be a below .500 over the remaining games. You may say that the start doesn't change your opinion of the Brewers, but that means you should expect them to win 50% of theri remaining games, not less.