The difference between Marcum and Estrada is almost assuredly not 9 1/2 wins. EDIT: Because I didn't want to figure out what the difference would be between Estrada and some other random pitcher. So I decided instead to just replace Marcum with a Dave Bush type. A 5.25 ERA in those 176.1 innings results in 40 more runs allowed, or, 4 less wins, on average. We'd still be standing, in theory, 6 games ahead of the Cards. Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.