The odds were wrong, mostly because it based on assuming they were the same teams that got those records where injuries, especially in Atlanta's case, made that not even close to true. That said, the real odds were likely very close.
Yes Gallardo's last three starts have been good. The two before that he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings and 3 runs in 6. Those 2 bad starts weren't a sign of him becoming a terrible pitcher just like his last three don't mean he's reached a new level.
Braun sat Monday with home field advantage on the line. Yes its foolish that Reyes is going to end up with like 40+ fewer PAs than Braun and still can win the batting title but that is how the rules are set up.