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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    I'm not sure how a Parra start constitutes evidence that Davis is going to the bench, when all of the public pronouncements about the trade are to the contrary.
  2. igor67
    I was thinking that he needed to improve enough at the lower levels, so he could hit about .250 in the majors with where his other secondary skills are at. Its hard to translate that to a specific number in the minors.
  3. igor67
    That's not really helping since Bando had almost 50 points of batting average on Brennan. Guys can produce in a lot of different ways, but there a certain things that just have to be there on some level, a guy who hits .200 (which could easily be the outcome of such a low batting average right now) isn't going to walk enough as he advances, unless at the extreme he has 80 grade power.
  4. igor67
    As much as Dunn would obliterate Overbay on offense he has become only an emergency fielder (only 203 defensive innings this year). We don't even have any DH games left on the schedule. If he was merely below average I think it would make sense, but this is not the biggest strikeout staff and solid infield defense is part of that. If the team got ultracreative on the roster management I could see an angle where he gets a few Sept starts, a lot of pinch hitting and then for the playoffs you drop down a pitcher and have him around as a big weapon off the bench and DH if you make the WS. I'm just not sold all of that maneuvering gets you as much as just finding a better hitter with merely OK defense at first.
  5. igor67
    I like a lot of what Brennan has done this season, and while his secondary skills seem solid enough his hit tool looks like it is probably not good enough as he progresses up the chain. Anyone observe anything that suggests he might be able to get the batting average up some?
  6. igor67
    This is Brewerfan not talk radio it is perfectly OK to have nuanced opinions, instead of over the top declarations. I think Parra is a significant upgrade even in a bench capacity (normally not a big deal), I also think the Brewers overpaid a little. Going into their respective trades Haniger had way more hype going than Brantly did yet with some time to develop in the bigs he has turned out pretty well ( as have a number of other lower radar level guys from the Brewers system in recent years). I'm not hugely concerned as odds are pretty good Haniger tops out as a 4th OF type/ starter on a weaker team. However he could easily be a league average player for a number of years as well and that is nothing to sneeze at losing. I'll take it that the Brewers felt he was perhaps stagnating somewhat and not continuing to develop.
  7. igor67
    Someone commented that Parra was only worth an extra 1-2 hits every 5 days. That's actually probably a little high. More importantly that is a large amount of extra offense. If we simplify that to an extra hit per week, the season is 6 months * 4 weeks = 24 extra hits. Even though he is just a bench guy, I think there is a solid chance Parra hits enough to be worth an extra win the last couple of months. If for no other reason than he probably gets used more than Schafer was.
  8. igor67
    Please note that Parra's career numbers vs. righties are a .760 OPS and he is hardly old enough to think he is declining. The plurality of the evidence makes Parra a slightly better hitter right now against righties and certainly a better defender.
  9. igor67
    Seems a little high on our side with throwing in Banda as well, but certainly an area were we get a lot of bang for the buck in terms of improvement. I'm not advocating a strict platoon, but giving Davis some more days off against righties helps everyone. If we found the equivalent at first I'd be pretty happy. The As basically built their offense by finding mishmashes of partial players, no reason we can't do the same.
  10. igor67
    Deals are hard to do. That is probably the single biggest reason reason you never see GMs do something like this, it is entirely contingent on a second deal happening. To make matters worse no matter which order you do things in you kill your negotiating leverage in the second deal. This isn't armchair speculation look at the total number of trades made by GMs in an entire year. It is 6-7 and most of those are for backend filler and minor league filler. GMs who are in a firesale mode are about the only ones who do more than 1 major trade by the deadline. And for a team in contention the real likelihood of a deal falling through halfway in the middle of contending is much worse than standing pat.
  11. igor67
    I know his playing time has been sporadic, but Zarraga has been pretty cold since hitting AAA. A mediocre AAA finish wouldn't exactly do wonders for his leverage in his upcoming free agency.
  12. igor67
    I choose to happily embrace the Pirates helping to keep us in first. I wonder if they also have an "if we miss the playoffs thread..."?
  13. igor67
    A change of scenery with Gindl perhaps? Overall though it looks like a pretty solid way to improve, and a nice catch on giving Davis some days off strategically against tough right handers.
  14. igor67
    It is worth mentioning that basing the probability of scoring a runner from 1st with no outs vs. scoring a run with a man on second and 1 out is likely to be a biased measurement. Not horribly biased managers universally are more likely to bunt with weaker hitters, so the ingrained strategic habits already play a role in those numbers and since the percentages are close in this case the odds could easily tilt one way or the other based on who is pitching, and who the upcoming batters are.
  15. igor67
    Given the dearth of options that will deliver good value, I'd be OK with it. However, I'll be a little disappointed if they can't do something, because what is left are the little bench kind of moves that are much easier to do, and would help at least a little.
  16. igor67
    There are revivals, but Howard has been sinking downward for 3 years, and this year he is hitting replacement level at best. So bad he has erased his notorious platoon split.
  17. igor67
    Even better the top 5 in the order have combined to make only 2 outs (both on a GIDP from Denson). McFarland and Denson are my favorites to watch right now, I think both are going to finish the season strong and really establish themselves as guys to watch. They won't crack the top 10 for the Brewers just yet in my book, but after the draft and Lara signings that is no longer a dismissal.
  18. igor67
    I agree unless something happens the option is the simple route to go, and then they can look for options at either 1st or 3rd in the offseason. If the buyout wasn't so high there might be a chance they'd try to go a completely different direction, but I think it is safe to say that if it ain't broke don't fix it is something of Brewers Standard Operating Procedure. I could see them trading a starter to free up money if they felt that was important.
  19. igor67
    One thing for sure is that suddenly the As grab of Smarwhatever looks even better with Price off the market. One thing worth noting about all of those sabermetric analysis pieces is that even this deep into the year their projections are almost entirely based on the preseason predicted talent levels. As the Rays bouncing back shows, some of that is justified, but both in terms of production and especially injuries on the ground the Brewers are more than a .500 team that PECOTA claims and the Cards are not a .540 team over the rest of the season. As a result the dip last week to less than a 50% chance of making the playoffs was kind of silly. They aren't an 80-90% near lock either, but 60-70% to make the playoffs right now seems fair given the number of teams close enough to luck into a really hot month.
  20. igor67
    Given the dearth of first basemen, I think that 4 million buyout gives Aramis a fair bit of leverage. Assuming he stays north of an .800 OPS even with less HR power the RBIs are still there. I'd be surprised if he got less than a 1 year 10 million dollar deal at this point.
  21. igor67
    I do think that this system does a decent job of helping to level that playing field with market size. That said there is a huge difference in getting first round picks vs. second round, so some bad luck on that front could easily happen.
  22. igor67
    Henderson could be back anytime as well, boy would that give us a lot of options to play match-ups and not overwork guys.
  23. igor67
    Since the universe seems in a giving mood how about a nice Reynolds hot streak for awhile too?
  24. igor67
    Maybe we can nab an extra run in the 8th and make it a non save situation, that might give Jeffress a good shot to get in.
  25. igor67
    Strictly on talent and production Barney would be an upgrade on Bianchi for sure. At such a low cost I'd make the move instead of trying to find a trading partner for someone else. An upgrade in the hand is worth 2 possible deals at the deadline.
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