homer

There is so much noise in the data right now it's really hard to model anything with any degree of accuracy.

I think you could maybe do home playoff games in November if you committed to day games. Night games? It would probably be below 40 if it got closer to the end of the month. Boston, New York, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Colorado, Minnesota, Pittsburgh would all be pretty chilly most likely. Out of those the teams in New York, Chicago, Minnesota, and maybe Cleveland have playoff aspirations.

I think you could maybe do home playoff games in November if you committed to day games. Night games? It would probably be below 40 if it got closer to the end of the month. Boston, New York, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Colorado, Minnesota, Pittsburgh would all be pretty chilly most likely. Out of those the teams in New York, Chicago, Minnesota, and maybe Cleveland have playoff aspirations.

Well, I can think of a whole bunch of large empty cruise ships laying around - and empty hotels for that matter - that would be perfect makeshift recovery/isolation hospitals with plenty of beds for those with mild/moderate symptoms not requiring an ICU. Part of the reason the US has so few "regular" hospital beds per capita compared to the rest of the world actually has to do with the quality of care/health system and the fact that in even normal circumstances the best place to be if you want to contract an infectious disease is a hospital - the US hospital system has tried to limit the overall room size of hospitals and spread out the range of care to multiple facilities in other locations. I also don't really know how assited living/nursing home facilities are quantified in these # of bed breakdowns - I'm guessing the US has many, many more of those than the rest of the world per capita, of which would all fall under regular hospital beds in my book. That still doesn't account for supplies - swabs, masks, ventilators etc. Point being....flattening the curve is the best way to attack this thing regardless of where you live.

Well, I can think of a whole bunch of large empty cruise ships laying around - and empty hotels for that matter - that would be perfect makeshift recovery/isolation hospitals with plenty of beds for those with mild/moderate symptoms not requiring an ICU. Part of the reason the US has so few "regular" hospital beds per capita compared to the rest of the world actually has to do with the quality of care/health system and the fact that in even normal circumstances the best place to be if you want to contract an infectious disease is a hospital - the US hospital system has tried to limit the overall room size of hospitals and spread out the range of care to multiple facilities in other locations. I also don't really know how assited living/nursing home facilities are quantified in these # of bed breakdowns - I'm guessing the US has many, many more of those than the rest of the world per capita, of which would all fall under regular hospital beds in my book. That still doesn't account for supplies - swabs, masks, ventilators etc. Point being....flattening the curve is the best way to attack this thing regardless of where you live.

Its use as a treatment for COVID-19 is the definition of experimental. Well, that's being argumentative for the sake of it. Obviously any treatment of C-19 is experimental at this point. But the drug itself is not experimental. It is FDA approved, and around for a long time. Supply would not be a problem if they wanted to go this route, there's only a limited supply because there's no demand yet. Just watch. I predict we'll see really positive results in WA and NY, it will go into more widespread use and save a lot of lives. Then again, I feel optimistic today. Supply is a problem right now. Kaiser Permanente is discontinuing it for patients that are already on it: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/kaiser-permanente-lupus-chloroquine In a statement provided to BuzzFeed News, Kaiser Permanente confirmed that it was no longer filling routine prescriptions for chloroquine. "As we face the real possibility of running out of the drug for everybody if we don’t take steps to mitigate the shortage, Kaiser Permanente, like other health care organizations across the country, has had to take steps to control the outflow of the medication to ensure access to severely sick patients, including both COVID-19 and those with acute lupus," said Nancy Gin, regional medical director of Quality and Clinical Analysis at Kaiser Permanente, Southern California, which has 4.6 million members. "Extensive experience and research show that hydroxychloroquine builds up in the body and continues to work for an average of 40 days even after the last dose is taken. By then, we expect the drug manufacturers to have ramped up production to meet the increased demand. Until then, we are no longer refilling routine prescriptions to ensure we have adequate supply to care for our sickest patients," Gin said. I guess we'll see what happens in the next 40 days.

Its use as a treatment for COVID-19 is the definition of experimental. Well, that's being argumentative for the sake of it. Obviously any treatment of C-19 is experimental at this point. But the drug itself is not experimental. It is FDA approved, and around for a long time. Supply would not be a problem if they wanted to go this route, there's only a limited supply because there's no demand yet. Just watch. I predict we'll see really positive results in WA and NY, it will go into more widespread use and save a lot of lives. Then again, I feel optimistic today. Supply is a problem right now. Kaiser Permanente is discontinuing it for patients that are already on it: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/kaiser-permanente-lupus-chloroquine In a statement provided to BuzzFeed News, Kaiser Permanente confirmed that it was no longer filling routine prescriptions for chloroquine. "As we face the real possibility of running out of the drug for everybody if we don’t take steps to mitigate the shortage, Kaiser Permanente, like other health care organizations across the country, has had to take steps to control the outflow of the medication to ensure access to severely sick patients, including both COVID-19 and those with acute lupus," said Nancy Gin, regional medical director of Quality and Clinical Analysis at Kaiser Permanente, Southern California, which has 4.6 million members. "Extensive experience and research show that hydroxychloroquine builds up in the body and continues to work for an average of 40 days even after the last dose is taken. By then, we expect the drug manufacturers to have ramped up production to meet the increased demand. Until then, we are no longer refilling routine prescriptions to ensure we have adequate supply to care for our sickest patients," Gin said. I guess we'll see what happens in the next 40 days.

While flattening the curve is truly important, not many admit the US is better prepared for this than most other countries. Here is a quote from an economist I follow. "Meanwhile, a 2013 study by the Department of Health and Human Services determined that the US has the most Intensive Care Unit beds per capita of any country at 20-32 per 100,000 people. This is far higher than China where there are only 2.8-4.6, demonstrating why they needed to build hospitals overnight. Likewise, the US far outdoes countries with socialized medical systems like Canada (13.5), Sweden (5.8-8.7), or the UK (3.5-7.4). This means the US is better suited to deal with the healthcare capacity issues that could arise with a Pandemic than virtually any other country in the world." This is true and a good thing but the US also has far fewer regular hospital beds than the rest of the world (draw your own conclusions about why we have the ICU bed to regular bed ratio that we do. My cynical guess is that it has to do with reimbursement rates) so when someone moves out of ICU they need somewhere else to go. Secondly, for this kind of illness you oftentimes need a special ICU room of which there aren't all that many. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hospital-beds-per-capita-us-south-korea-italy-2020-3

While flattening the curve is truly important, not many admit the US is better prepared for this than most other countries. Here is a quote from an economist I follow. "Meanwhile, a 2013 study by the Department of Health and Human Services determined that the US has the most Intensive Care Unit beds per capita of any country at 20-32 per 100,000 people. This is far higher than China where there are only 2.8-4.6, demonstrating why they needed to build hospitals overnight. Likewise, the US far outdoes countries with socialized medical systems like Canada (13.5), Sweden (5.8-8.7), or the UK (3.5-7.4). This means the US is better suited to deal with the healthcare capacity issues that could arise with a Pandemic than virtually any other country in the world." This is true and a good thing but the US also has far fewer regular hospital beds than the rest of the world (draw your own conclusions about why we have the ICU bed to regular bed ratio that we do. My cynical guess is that it has to do with reimbursement rates) so when someone moves out of ICU they need somewhere else to go. Secondly, for this kind of illness you oftentimes need a special ICU room of which there aren't all that many. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hospital-beds-per-capita-us-south-korea-italy-2020-3

He's an upgrade over everyone on that receiving corp not named Adams and Lazard. He will come in, compete for a spot, and if he doesn't make it they'll cut him with minimal issue. Not a big deal really. Low risk, decent reward.

He's an upgrade over everyone on that receiving corp not named Adams and Lazard. He will come in, compete for a spot, and if he doesn't make it they'll cut him with minimal issue. Not a big deal really. Low risk, decent reward.

Again, the mortality rate is important but there are plenty of people going to the hospital with this that don't die. They are taking up beds/resources from people that also need them (oftentimes for things other than Covid 19) and those people very well could die. Not to mention infecting the caretakers at the hospitals who maybe can't work because they are home sick.

Again, the mortality rate is important but there are plenty of people going to the hospital with this that don't die. They are taking up beds/resources from people that also need them (oftentimes for things other than Covid 19) and those people very well could die. Not to mention infecting the caretakers at the hospitals who maybe can't work because they are home sick.

And they about 100 cases a month ago. Hence the toll on their healthcare system...everyone got sick at the same time.

And they about 100 cases a month ago. Hence the toll on their healthcare system...everyone got sick at the same time.

I dunno. Doesn't really sound like they are business as usual after reading that. They have plenty of measures in place. We are fully able to travel within the US right? And what does "some table service" mean? And Sweden's death rate is higher than neighboring Norway so to say they have had little consequence is really underselling it. "Like other European countries, Sweden has banned gatherings, but only gatherings of 500 or more — as opposed to the more drastic directives, like in Germany, which is now banning “gatherings” of more than just two. Sweden’s government is also advising that universities and secondary schools shift to fully online classes, but is so far keeping primary schools open, though lawmakers have fast-tracked a bill allowing closures, if deemed necessary. Also remaining open are restaurants and bars, which other governments, including those of many U.S. states, have fully shut down except for take-out orders. Sweden, on the other hand, still allows some table service. Like other European countries, travel across Sweden’s border is barred except for essential travel, but travel within the country is fully open, the government merely advising residents to avoid non-essential holiday trips."

I dunno. Doesn't really sound like they are business as usual after reading that. They have plenty of measures in place. We are fully able to travel within the US right? And what does "some table service" mean? And Sweden's death rate is higher than neighboring Norway so to say they have had little consequence is really underselling it. "Like other European countries, Sweden has banned gatherings, but only gatherings of 500 or more — as opposed to the more drastic directives, like in Germany, which is now banning “gatherings” of more than just two. Sweden’s government is also advising that universities and secondary schools shift to fully online classes, but is so far keeping primary schools open, though lawmakers have fast-tracked a bill allowing closures, if deemed necessary. Also remaining open are restaurants and bars, which other governments, including those of many U.S. states, have fully shut down except for take-out orders. Sweden, on the other hand, still allows some table service. Like other European countries, travel across Sweden’s border is barred except for essential travel, but travel within the country is fully open, the government merely advising residents to avoid non-essential holiday trips."

Then those lazy asses need to start listening to people other than the media. There are plenty of epidemiologists and infectious disease docs out there on Twitter and other places to get informed. If people don't want to do that then that's on them. Correct. There are. https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-turning-point-in-us-will-be-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/amp/#click=https://t.co/DFov9P4Rgy https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/21/facing-covid-19-reality-national-lockdown-is-no-cure/?outputType=amp#click=https://t.co/tNoyMcLETo It's actually kind of funny that you use media sources to prove your point. It's almost like the media is....not as biased as we are led to believe? And maybe if people actually read full articles instead of headlines and stopped watching cable TV chryons (or stopped watching cable tv news altogether) they'd realize that the Big Bad Media isn't really so bad? And its great there are scientists who think it's not as big a deal as other people. More informed opinions the better. But you have to make sure you are ingesting their opinions as critically as you are the scientists who think it's a huge deal. But I digress... Go to the source. Don't read quotes in an article, read the whole interview verbatim.

Then those lazy asses need to start listening to people other than the media. There are plenty of epidemiologists and infectious disease docs out there on Twitter and other places to get informed. If people don't want to do that then that's on them.

Looks like Milwaukee numbers are different. I am not 100% but I think they only update the DHS site once a day (or every other day) after the presser. Maybe Milwaukee released new numbers after the fact?

And even with a yearly flu vaccine, TENS of millions in the US contract it and 0.1% die from it. That's not completely protective. Yes, even people who get the flu vaccine will get the flu. And it's a strawman argument that something is "possible" that it weighs merit if the likelihood is so low to be functionally zero. No, I can't disprove that space aliens landed and infected us with a novel virus to see how we would respond because I can't prove a negative (like aliens don't exist or they didn't land in Wuhan). The chance a completely protective vaccine is possible is so low that no credible person should use that as a basis to change policy. Policy should be based on highly likely possibilities. Otherwise you just end up killing more people. Giving people stuff and expecting either a positive finding or no harm is the reason we need the FDA. Often you harm people while trying to help them. I worked in a biotech company years ago and our first product made it through phase 1 clinical trials, but went down in phase 2 when it actually killed more people than if they received the control treatment. More died with the drug than without! That happens often. Too often to just shrug off the dangers. There's some data from China how to proceed with severe cases, not sure anyone in the US is paying attention because the WHO said it. I have no problem with doctors trying novel approaches when dealing with severely ill people, within certain guidelines. This isn't ebola or SARS, the mortality rate is much lower so the waiving of "experimenting" on patients isn't as justified. Except it's already approved by the FDA, and has been in use for many years. Even if it wasn't, what is the downside of giving dying people this drug? I understand clinical trials are needed to use it for this application on a mass basis, I don't understand why it's not an option for anyone dying, or even in critical condition. And again, this is a known drug, not experimental. It's my understanding that there's not a lot of it. So you'd end up giving it to people not knowing if it would work and thus depriving people on whom we know it does work.

Doesn't appear to be that crazy. No gyms, theaters, dine in restaurants, spas, salons, etc. Just trying to keep people from congregating in large groups. I suppose if this goes on a few months half the guys out there will be walking around looking like Jesus and the other half will be walking around with bad haircuts that they got from their wives. I'm letting it all go. I will look like Moses by the time this is done.

Doesn't appear to be that crazy. No gyms, theaters, dine in restaurants, spas, salons, etc. Just trying to keep people from congregating in large groups. It goes wayyyyyy farther than that. Most manufacturing, retails, service industries. It's not just gyms, restaurants, and salons- we've already been doing that. This is directly from the Dept of Health https://evers.wi.gov/Documents/COVID19/EMO12-SaferAtHome.pdf: Closures. All of the following facilities shall be closed: a. Public and private K-12 schools and public libraries. Except for facilitating distance learning or virtual learning, public and private K-12 schools are closed for pupil instruction and extracurricular activities. Libraries shall close for all in-person services, but may continue to provide on-line services and programming. Schools and public libraries may be used for Essential Government Functions and food distribution. This section does not apply to facilities operated by the Wisconsin Department of Corrections or the Department of Military Affairs including the Challenge Academy. b. Places of public amusement and activity. Whether indoors or outdoors, including but not limited to amusement parks, carnivals, water parks, licensed public or private swimming pools, splash pads, aquariums, zoos, museums, arcades, fairs, children's play centers, playgrounds, funplexes, theme parks, bowling alleys, movie and other theaters, concert and music halls, country clubs, social clubs, and gyms and fitness centers. c. Salons and spas. This includes, but is not limited to, hair salons, barber shops, nail salons, day spas, electrolysis providers, waxing salons, eyebrow-care establishments, tattoo parlors, body art establishments, and tanning facilities.

Doesn't appear to be that crazy. No gyms, theaters, dine in restaurants, spas, salons, etc. Just trying to keep people from congregating in large groups.

What drugs are available?