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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. If he's got options remaining, absolutely.
  2. Bucholz to Phuillies for middling class A level prospect. Interesting only in that it might clarify what the market is for Garza. Bucholz is owed similar money in 2017 and his performance has been quite Garza-like over the past 3 seasons. They are also close in age.
  3. People thinking the Brewers will be worse as a result of no Lucroy, Thornburg, Jeffress, Smith, Carter (HR champ) is logical. It makes sense on the surface but there are a lot of factors I look at when thinking they'll be better. The rotation as a unit should be better than last year. Going from a defensive IF of Hill/Perez, Villar, Scooter, Carter to Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames is an upgrade at every single position (the right side of the IF is a huge upgrade). Defense matters greatly and it gets overlooked far too often. Anyone we put behind the dish is a downgrade from Lucroy. However, the Brewers weren't terrible after he was traded and Maldy is below average as a starter (would be terrible if his arm/framing weren't so good). Susac should win that starting job and if he's anything remotely close to what he's done in the minors you'll get a good offensive catcher and an avg defensive one with Bandy being better defensively, supposedly, of the two. Braun is Braun. I'm expecting Broxton and Santana to be solid players - 800+ OPS offensively while having good on base numbers. They're talented and have flashed what their potential is. Our #4-6 OF received almost half the OF ABs last year. That's not good. The pen takes a step back as Jeffress/Thornburg were great. Smith was replaceable with his first half last year. He wasn't his typical self. Barnes will play a much more significant role as will Knebel. Both are young and have a lot of potential to be very, very good. There should be 5 guys back in the pen so mixing in a couple other strong shouldn't be an issue. Lets not forget that Thornburg blew 8 of 21 save opportunities. if this pen closes that gap there's additional Ws. The young guys got some good PT last year and that experience will only help moving forward. I was with you until the comment about Thornburg who allowed 2 ER all year to division opponents in 30 innings, including nothing to the Cubs and Cardinals. He's a huge loss as he was one of the few difference makers on the roster. With him they were a real threat to surpass last year's win total. As it stands now I see a significant number of winnable games squandered in the 9th. There's still time to bolster the pen though with a solid veteran acquisition.
  4. White Sox might be a perfect landing spot for Scooter. Lawrie only managed a weak .704 OPS vs. RHP in 2016 and he's coming off an injury, and they are trying to deal Frazier which could push Lawrie over to 3B some. while Moncada gets a big more seasoning in AAA. Since the Sox are also trying to unload Robertson maybe they'd consider a Gennett for Robertson deal if the Brewers pick up most of Robertson's contract and throw in a marginal prospect. Robertson, who's signed through 2018 (though not cheaply) could still prove to be a nice flip candidate in July.
  5. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I don't think it's fair to say the Brewers are EASILY a 75 win team in 2017. It's possible if everything and then some goes right. But they are not easily winning 75 games. Projections for the line-up are really hard this season. Other than Braun and some extent Santana, everyone else carries big question marks. I expect the rotation to be very similar to last year, overall. Bullpen almost certainly will be worse, just a matter of whether that is marginal or much worse. The Brewer rotation in 2016 was middle of the pack. Throw out the first month and it was even better, and every guy is back with additional options to replace injured or faltering starters. A middle of the pack rotation gets a team to a minimum of 70 wins even with a lesser bullpen, which by the way they haven't finished assembling. The lineup itself has interchangeable parts. Perez can fill in anywhere for any starter not performing. Perez' WAR last season was 2.0 per baseball reference and 1.2 per fangraphs. One of the best OF prospects in the game is at the ready should Broxton falter. Not having Lucroy for 4 months is a significant loss, but they were 26-33 after he and 2 key relievers were dealt which wasn't far off their season winning percentage. Eric Thames commanded a 3 year deal because not just the Brewers wanted his services. So it's not just the Brewers that think he'll put up numbers worthy of a 1B position and they are betting on it. Projecting Thames to post an .OPS 100 points lower than his major league career mark that he earned as a 24-25 year old in the big leagues. Put another way, they are projecting him to be considerably worse as a player now than he was before he went to Korea. On what basis do they do that? Players from that league have thrived in the majors. Not all of them but a decent number of them.
  6. IMO, 5.3 WAR is incredibly awful for your a starting lineup. We have no chance of 75 wins with these projections. This projection shows our lineup combined will supply the WAR of '16 Daniel Murphy. If a replacement level team is worth roughly 52 wins, and the lineup is 5.3, that projection of the offense alone is showing us a 61ish win team. The 5.3 WAR for hitters is roughly half the worst team in baseball last year, and about half the 2nd worst team in baseball this year by this same projection. Nothing about this shows us anywhere close to a 70 win team. With that said, our hitters will not accumalate less than 6 WAR. Thames projection is off due to lack of data (and if he slugs .342 he sure isn't getting 560 plate appearances), Arcia's defense will give an extra half win, Villar's defense at 2b may generate value if it can be league average. Too many unknowns for this group to have a decent "projection". With Braun, I'd take the over on 10 war, and without I'd take 8.5. Higher than this projection, but that number will still put us at the bottom of the league. You honestly don't think the everyday Brewer lineup is better than the Padres? Seriously? The Brewer rotation is much, much more accomplished than the Padres as well. The Pads at best are a 62-65 win team. The Brewers are easily 10 games better than that especially in a division with the Reds and Pirates who are equally as down.
  7. Projecting total wins off preseason WAR projections is ludicrous and makes false assumption after false assumption, most notably that the lineup is stagnant. If for instance, Broxton is merely mediocre, at some point he'll be replaced by Broxton. Same goes for the rotation. While it's safe to say there is not an all in mindset for 2017, they aren't going to just sit back and let this team suck either. There are going to be adjustments made to get the most out of what they have. If this roster loses 100 games, Counsell should be fired and I think he would agree. The projection of Thames to be a -1.8 player is an indictment of the entire Brewer organization. The Brewers didn't sign Thames to tank. My guess is Brewers see him as an ,826 OPS guy not the .626 guy seen by Fangraphs.. Frankly, I put more trust in Stearns and the scouting staff than a bunch of nerds at Fangraphs.
  8. Given the negative national spotlight that Braun had a few years ago, Milwaukee might be the perfect place for him to play out the rest of his career. The fans have for the most part still embrace him here. If he goes to any major market, all that stuff will come up again. He's under contract for 4 more seasons, and he undoubtedly sees potential for this team to start it's turnaround well before he leaves.
  9. Don't you think other teams saw Nelson the first couple months of 2016? It wasn't the only good stretch he's had either. Teams know the talent is there. His struggles the second half of 2016 aren't going to scare them all away. Nelson would likely thrive not having to be "the guy". Teams view Nelson as a talent but lacking the mental toughness to be a top of a rotation starter. Put him in the 4th spot in a good rotation, and he could really blossom. I don't think he'll fulfill his promise as a Brewer and now's the time to get what you can.
  10. $2.5 million isn't a lot for a .279 lifetime hitter in over 1500 major league at bats and who's in his prime. The Brewers paid Counsell $2.8 million in 07 and 08 to be a utility infielder in his mid 30s. Worst case, Brewers can use an accomplished LH hitter to pinch hit late in game. He's also insurance if Arcia gets off to slow start and they decide to send him down to get straight as they can move Villar back to SS and put Scooter at 2B.
  11. Easily the best was the "Stunner in Seattle" on August 21. I was in my car driving home from the golf course and turned the game on to start the 9th. It had been several years since the Brewers rallied from 3 or more runs down going into the 9th. Broxton keyed the rally with a leadoff homer, that eventually led to 4 runs on 6 hits in the inning and game tying HR by Carter (he'll be missed make no mistake) and a Gennett RBI single to give them the lead, then having Thornburg strand the tying run at 2B in the bottom of the inning preserve his own win. Thornburg will be missed as well and so will Scooter if he goes. Making that game even sweeter was it busted a 6 game losing streak. Talk about getting off the mat! Special mention to the 11-3 pounding of the Cubs the day after they clinched when Brewers pounded out 4 HR.
  12. There's enough unknowns on this team to make for a fairly wide range of possible outcomes as far as W/L record. Braun is one of the few knowns and he's worth about 5 games unless they get back an equal amount in a deal for him. If 75 wins is the mid-point, then 65 wins is in play and so is 85. There's years where 85 wins contends and at the very least would make for a fun season. What I'd just like to see is they give this group a fair shot to surprise and not deal potentially their best starter in Guerra and their best hitter in Braun who are both controllable. If they are way out of it in July, fine, shop whomever for the best deal. But there's no pressing need to know in my opinion.
  13. That's all well and good and indicates they can simply release him if he doesn't win a job in Arizona, but that's the problem. Evaluating pitchers in Arizona is pointless. Say the 5th spot in the rotation comes down to Milone and Chase Anderson. Do you give the edge to Milone because he's a lefty or to Anderson who for all his troubles just getting through 5 innings much less 6, was actually very good the 2nd half with a 3.02 ERA over 14 games (13 starts). Can't keep all those guys and there aren't enough bullpen slots either. Maybe they'll deal one or even two starters, and it will be clarified, with hopefully Garza being one, but right now they have a lot of guys that look about the same.
  14. I'm okay with Milone, though I'd have preferred Travis Wood. Wood is reportedly looking for a team that will give him a chance to start again, but he's already proven he can be effective both starting and relieving. Plus Wood is such a good hitter, he actually gives you an extra bench bat.
  15. The guy they are shopping is probably Nelson in a package with Scooter. Though he struggled mightily the second half last year, Nelson's still has the kind of stuff that interest teams who think they can unlock the potential. Nelson's career is a bit like Jeff Samardzija, with periods where he looks close to ace-like followed by puzzling stretches where he can't find his command. Teams always seem to want those guys. A lot of teams out there are looking for starters, and once the few obvious ones find homes, interest will pick up. I don't see the Dodgers taking on Braun's salary now they are well over the luxury tax threshold and Brewers would be foolish to take back an equal amount, especially if the bulk of it with a guy like McCarthy is potential dead money.
  16. Help me be more optimistic here. Im seeing a guy with a home run problem (going to a park that yields alot of home runs), without much of a fastball, and no platoon splits to suggest he could even be a useful loogy. He was more than a serviceable 4-5th starter in the AL for 4 straight years and had an off 2016. It happens. He's an excellent bounce back candidate. He dominated for 7 starts in AAA after the Twins sent him down. He's definitely worth a look. Interleague record is 7-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.289 WHIP. 1 HR allowed in 17 2/3 IP in Miller Park.
  17. The White Sox signed former Brewer Caleb Gindl to a minor league deal. Gindl was coming off posting a .784 OPS for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the indy Atlantic League. Still waiting to see if his Lancaster and one time Brewer teammate Sean Halton who posted a .904 OPS for the Barnstormers finds his way back to affiliated ball.
  18. exactly seems like he is younger version of Maldonado. Susac is a much better offensive catching prospect and would be a better choice to being an everyday catcher. Susac's AAA OPS is .777 in 140 games. Bandy's AAA OPS is .790 in 112 games. They are the same age. I'd say they are very close. What did the Prospect Handbook say about Villar, Broxton and Perez? Point is we know what Maldonado is and he's not a starting caliber catcher. Judging from the outrage from Angels fans, there's a few that thought highly enough of Bandy to think he could be. Stearns has taken another guy who'll get a chance to show he's better than some evaluators projected him. Neither is a sure thing or close to it, but if he hits on either Susac or Bandy, it's a major plus. I'd like to point out that statements about Nottingham like "we placed him aggressively" are a nice way of saying they aren't giving up on him, but left unsaid is they had hoped he'd done better and that they want to see improvement this year.
  19. I'm happy that they did address the catching position. It needed addressing. This isn't a huge move, but having Maldonado as the number one by default made little sense. Hopefully one of these guys emerges as a serviceable number one catcher. We know Maldonado wasn't and that's no knock on him just the reality.
  20. Pina's an insurance policy but I really think Brewers see Bandy like they do Susac, as a guy who could emerge as a decent number one catcher if given the chance. Better to have 2 and let the winner emerge than put all the eggs in one basket. It might say more about Nottingham's future though that they have controllable guys ahead of him now. I'm guessing the Angles will go after a true number one like Wieters or Castillo, and back that guy up with a solid veteran rather than a youngish guy.
  21. Angels fans not happy on MLBTR. They saw upside in Bandy. Maldonado's 4 years older, and entering his 2nd Arby year. What you see is what you get and he's never going to be more than a solid backup. Why pay more than minimum salary for a backup catcher? Bandy could have some untapped potential as does Susac. The way has been cleared for them to fight it out.
  22. I see Bandy and Susac competing. Bandy will make about a million less than Maldonado will get in arbitration. Gives them two youngish controllable guys. Not real exciting but together not a bad combo. Gagnon was completely expendable.
  23. He had a pair of back surgeries and hip surgery in his past. Very hard to overcome that. Brewers could afford to sign Wellington Castillo and upgrade their catching situation immediately as well as have a future trading chip.
  24. Dodgers could still use an inexpensive 2B and by their standards, Scooter's a bargain. If you could get them to take all but $5-6 million of Ethier's deal, an Ethier for Scooter deal makes some sense. Would give Brewers a corner OF to mix in with RH hitting Santana and Braun and a trade chip at the deadline. Keep in mind that any savings the Dodgers get on Ethier would be double as they are well over the luxury tax threshold. So a net savings from an Ethier/Gennett deal of say $4 million actually saves them $8 million.
  25. There aren't going to be teams out there that are targeting Scooter. I'm sure there are still teams that would like his services but his value dropped when it became apparent he didn't have a regular spot on the Brewers. I would expect him to be an add-on to a deal involving a controllable Brewer starter (Nelson seems to be the most logical). Remember it took until end of January last year for Segura to be dealt and that was in a multi player deal. Speaking of Arizona, if they want to keep Owings in a super utility role, they might have some interest in Scooter to platoon with Gosselin.
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