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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    I would hold on to Smith and use him in a package with Segura at the trade deadline or possibly sooner if somebody's starting SS goes down with an injury. They are going to need to package Segura to get any value back and Smith's the perfect guy to make a neat package deal as teams are always willing to add useful bullpen arms. Sure Smith has value on his own, but as a sweetener for a team that could use a SS badly too, you can get an even larger return than each separately.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    This is the stuff people will be calling you out about. It's okay to have different opinions but really? They are going to flat out release a 24 year old switch hitting utility player who can actually somewhat hit? In other words, anybody Stearns signed will be gone by July 1. He just forgot to type Chris Carter in there. No I think Broxton and Niewenhuis will survive longer than Peterson. I revised my post on Villar who I've been on the fence about ever since they signed Middlebrooks. I was ready to hand to 3B job to Villar to start the year and am still perplexed by fascination with a guy who's failed so miserably recently as Middlebrooks. Not that Villar will fail but he could get lost in the shuffle (he's out of options) much like Hernan Perez did in the offseason as they try and see if Middlebrooks is any good. Villar as a middle infield utility guy has defensive issues too. One thing I can predict with relative certainty. The Brewers will go through a ton of players this year. As the Geico ads say, that's what bad teams do.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    This is the stuff people will be calling you out about. It's okay to have different opinions but really? They are going to flat out release a 24 year old switch hitting utility player who can actually somewhat hit? Do I care that people call me out? If I were in charge Villar would be my opening day 3B certainly over Middlebrooks, but I'm trying to predict what Brewers will do in my post. Not that Villar can't play though he's suspect defensively in the middle infield, I just think there will be some very hot bats at AAA that they'll need to make room for. If they can move Segura, they'll hang on to Villar certainly. Villar's out of options which makes it tricky. You convinced me though so I edited the post! Congrats!
  4. JohnBriggs12
    Vs. RHP: Gennett 2B Lucroy C Braun RF Davis LF Nieuwenhuis CF Carter 1B Segura SS Middlebrooks 3B Vs. LHP Broxton CF Segura SS Braun RF Davis LF Lucroy C Carter 1B Villar 2B Middlebrooks 3B By June 1st, Middlebrooks will have been released, Segura will moved to 3B and Arcia will take over a SS. Middlebrooks is like the new toy that the kid down the block had that you wanted and lo and behold later found in the kids garbage only to find out yourself that it doesn't work. They'll try that toy for 40 games or so just like SD did then realize he doesn't work. Eventually they'll turn to guys who'll be tearing it up in Colorado Springs. Guys like Arcia and later Phillips along with Perez and Reed. The pleasant surprise of the early season will be Segura, who'll pump up his trade value with a start similar to the one he had in 2013.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    Getting another RH bat to replace Lind at first to me heightens the need to find a LH bat for CF. Seeing what the Brewers seem willing to pay for a veteran, Venable (who's cost figures to be around the same as Carter) would seem to be the logical guy now, as he's got enough pop in his bat to consider sticking in their order somewhere to mix things up and let Broxton or Santana ease in playing mostly against LHP. EY Jr, and Chris Presley don't really do it for me as realistic CF option.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    Obviously, the Pirates disagree with your assessment. They could have had Carter without giving up anything. Except Chris Carter would cost them upwards of $5mil and would only be around a year before he is in non tender limbo again. So it really isn't that simple. Especially since the Pirates are so cheap. Why would Carter have cost Pittsburgh twice what Brewers paid to get him? From what we've seen of Rogers, he appears to be a more well rounded hitter than Carter.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    If he were lefthanded, I'd be hailing this as a nice pickup at the price. I just think it will be hard for all the RH hitters to maximize their performance (which still is important for potential trade purposes if not winning games) when there's no LH threat in the lineup. It just makes it way too easy on opposing pitchers to face a virtually all RH lineup many of whom are all or nothing types. Will there be some fun games where this team cracks 5-6 HR? Sure, but they'll be plenty of others when they fan 14-15 times and get shutout. They deal Lind, who was the lone LH threat. Herrera was pretty good from the left side and he's gone. Villar too is a switch hitter, but he's tended to be better as a RH hitter. In CF they've added an athletic guy in Broxton with no major league experience, but he too hits RH. Only Gennett has any proven offensive talent from the left side and he's not a guy you stick in the middle of the order. Shane Peterson's still around and can probably be used a few times a week in various OF spots and 1B, but he's more a late inning PH and not a big power threat. Alex Presley is sort of the same guy as Peterson and he'll be in camp too. He may wind up playing CF if Broxton can't handle the job but I'm still hoping they reach out to a Venable who's got enough pop that he could be stuck in the 6th or 7th spot and break up the lineup a bit. For those of you on here that say it doesn't really matter because the team's going nowhere that they aren't balanced. They still need for their players to maximize their performances. And being all RH won't help that occur.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    If you are never going to invest in the market price for a prime FA occasionally, even after you've brought your payroll down to bare bones, then you can do all the rebuilding you want but you are never going to win just with young players and middling overpaid FA like the kind the Brewers have invested in. By 2018 who are the Brewers paying besides Braun who himself could be gone? They'll likely have dealt Peralta by that time and Nelson won't quite have peaked his arby money. They don't appear to have interest in extending Lucroy. Davis is reportedly being shopped if you believe Morosi. Garza will be off the books. The base payroll figures to be no higher than $60 million or so, less if Braun goes. They can't afford one $24 million player per year in that scenario?
  9. JohnBriggs12
    You wouldn't let 26 year old Jungmann go for a 23 year old CF with speed, and enough on base skills (53 BB as a rookie) to be your leadoff hitter for the next 5 years? I'd make that deal in a heartbeat. Jungmann is at best a number 3 and more likely a number 4 starter. I just don't get the thinking that every deal has to be a veteran for multiple prospects with questionable futures.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    Going into a season when you are going to most likely win somewhere between 65 and 75 games, worrying about the handedness of your lineup should be of very little concern. As someone else said, finding semi-competent bodies to fill in until your prospects arrive is the goal. Carter is cheap, under team control for three years, and if he produces at 2014 levels, can most likely be flipped for a nice prospect or two. Those are the things that matter far more than what side of the plate he hits from right now. I completely disagree. The reason you like to have a balanced lineup is because it's harder on the opposing pitcher to get into a rhythm. If the hope is to eventually deal some of these guys, you are going to need them to perform well but in a lineup full of similar hitters, it's pretty easy for the kind of RHP in this league to just shut the entire lot of them down game after game after game. Carter's not going to succeed in a lineup of similar swing for the fences RH bats. Nobody is with the lack of any threat from the left side mixed in. Apparently Stearns disagrees because they don't teach that course at Harvard. Making it worse is that Villar, who should be able to crack the lineup at 3B, is a better RH hitter than he is a LH hitter. That leaves Gennett as the sole lefty who has any major league track record.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    iWell he has experienced plenty of losing in his career so he should feel right at home. He's Mark Reynolds part 2. Brewers have zero power from the left side but plenty from the right. I would rather have just kept Rogers. Brewers now a threat to set new team strikeout records especially if Santana gets a lot of ABs too.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Texas is reportedly pursuing Marcel Ozuna and Miami is looking for young starter in return say either a Nick Martinez or Chi Chi Gonzalez. Now if they were to make a deal like that seems to me that it would make DeShields expendable who just happens to have been another product of the Astros system. Could the Brewers funnel a young arm (say Texas native Jungmann?) to Texas (to replace one they'd expend to get Ozuna) for DeShields or does DeShields become a key part of return in a Lucroy deal? Granted Phillips by all appearances is the CF of the future, but fitting both DeShields (prototypical leadoff hitter) and Phillips in the same outfield lends credence to rumors that Davis will be moved and oh by the way DeShields started his career playing 2B too.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Forget their prospects (I don't see a great match), I'd ask Nationals for Rendon straight up for Lucroy. A left side of the Brewer infield of Rendon and Arcia through 2019 (if Rendon himself isn't dealt for prospects before then) would look pretty good. Doubt the Nats would do it, but that would be a reasonable deal and wouldn't derail a rebuild either. If all teams are offering for Lucroy are low level prospects, get a major leaguer back and you can get the same caliber prospects (a little more developed) 2-3 years from now for Rendon. Rendon is younger and under control two more years than Lucroy. He doesn't quite have the sustained excellence Lucroy has and doesn't play a premier position so that offsets the two extra years of control the Brewers would be getting. Besides Nats recently signed Murphy who could fill in at 3B and added Stephen Drew for IF depth.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    Why wait if you think Santana might not work out. Why not deal him while he should have significant value or any of the other OF prospects for a position of greater need and lesser depth like 1B? They dealt a young player in Sardinas for another young player because they were comfortable with the middle infield depth and Sardinas likely had as much trade value as the incumbent, Segura. Just pointing out as Morosi did that a current Brewer has trade value and that makes a deal likely involving that player in the near future is way too simplistic. Especially as in the case with Davis, the team has 4 more years of control and a bare bones payroll that could easily absorb his arby years raises. Now Melvin was the epitome of a simplistic GM style. I don't think they hired Stearns to do a paint by numbers rebuild though.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    Pearce is an under the radar FA bat who posted a .930 OPS in 2014. Would make a nice RH half of a 1B platoon and can also play 2B. If he rebounded to close to that 2014 form, he would attact some offers at the deadline too. He wouldn't be taking ABs from any current young player. He would be getting the ABs that would have gone to Rogers.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    Good analysis but again the assumption that Davis is "on the trading block" because one national pundit speculates he will be is utter nonsense. There seems to be this perception nationally that the Brewers rebuild is starting completely from scratch when the fact is their two best position player prospects and most of their better arms are within a year of the big leagues so national media types look at who is on their roster that would bring a return and assume that guy is on the block regardless of the fact in Davis' case, Brewers still have 4 years of control over him. Lind was on the block. K-Rod was on the block Gomez and Parra were on the block. None of those guys were controllable beyond 2016 so that was a safe assumption. They've indicated they'd listen to offers for Lucroy who's controllable through 2017, but he's not really "on the block" at this point. He may well be a year from now if as we suspect 2017 will be another transition year and they'll want something for him assuming he's not amenable to an extension. Now they may like Santana or Reed a lot more than I do and want to find room for them but it's just as likely they'll try and deal Braun before Davis especially if he's sitting on 20 HR at the All Star break. They could also trade either Reed for Santana to fill a void at another position. There's nothing wrong with going into years 3 and 4 of this rebuild with a proven 35-40 HR bat in the lineup or two if Braun's power returns full force.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    No -- absolutely not. He's 28 & it's very clear that he's not going to improve notably. GMs & talent evaluators don't make small-sample assessments like fans assume they do & like fans themselves do. Just like a club that liked him wouldn't hesitate to trade for him if he had a bad month to start the season, a good month or two isn't going to change things. He can't change his value immensely in either direction at this point... and it can honestly only go down. He's hit one HR every 17 ABs in the major leagues. That's a premier power hitter over a substantial sample. The Pirates traded Bautista at age 27 and look what he's done. Same goes for Cincy giving up on Encarnacion and look at the kind of power he generates. It's not difficult at all to foresee Davis hitting 35 or even 40 HR the next few seasons assuming he gets full time AB's. Both Davis' BB rate and HR rate were up in 2015. To think he's not going to continue to improve is a stretch. The jury is still out on Domingo Santana. I would absolutely not deal Davis until Santana proves he can make enough contact against major league pitching because besides him, there's really no power bat in the system that is any more than a longshot to be a major league regular. Davis' Brewer career can overlap Arcia, Phillips and all the young arms currently in the high minors or already in the majors and not just for one year but multiple seasons. I'd love a 35 HR guy in my lineup along with the Arcias and Phillips and supporting a young staff. Deal away Davis and who's that guy?
  18. JohnBriggs12
    MLB Traderumors speculates that Braves would be willing to eat half of Bourn's remaining contract (Cleveland is already paying some of it) bringing his price down to range of $4.5-5 million. I still think that Bourn is an option worth exploring at that price. If he bounces back some, he could be moved at that price rather easily.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Morosi is wrong when he says "Brewers are beginning a full rebuild". No, they are not "beginning" a full rebuild. Most of the top prospects including some impressive arms are within a year of the major leagues. What they don't have a lot of in their system are power bats. Davis is controllable for 3 more seasons beyond 2016 and won't reach his peak trade value by July. He'll be here a while, at least until they see what this team looks like with Arcia at SS, and Hader and Lopez in the rotation. That will be after 2017 at the earliest.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    Its not too late to put a decent team on the field for 2016. Sign Fowler, Alvarez, and Latos to short term deals and it's suddently a mid pack roster with 3 guys who can be flipped a year from now.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    Not to mention attendence falling way off in a major market and not really coming back all that strong despite the 2015 being in first place most of the season.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    Ok, lets look ahead two years when we all hope Brewers will be in position to add both salary and talent. Mike Moustakas is a Boras client who almost certainly will hit free agency in two years at age 29. Without a 3B of the future in Brewer system, he's one guy worth keeping tabs on. Hopefully the young Brewers will be perceived as up and coming enough to attract a top level FA.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    The only way they could conceivably start 30-20 is if they have the nerve to start the season with a rotation including 5 of these 6: Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Hader, and Lopez, add a major league bat (Alvarez or Morneau) to play 1B, and major league quality CF. Nelson has the stuff to certainly be ace-like over a 50 game stretch. Peralta would have to return to 2014 form and one of the kids would have to become a ROY candidate out of the box. Hader has the stuff to be that guy if they have the guts to move him up. In addition to that they'd need bounce backs from Lucroy and Gennett, continued power from Davis and Braun, and adequate play at 3B from some combo of Villar, Perez or Middlebrooks. Now if they're sitting 30-20 with that young staff, do you sell off veterans who are providing offense, especially ones you control in 2017 also? Maybe you sell off the CF you've picked up to be a stopgap, and sell off Segura to make room for Arcia, but those are moves that could improve your chances not diminish them. They need to eat Garza's contract which was a massive mistake by the previous regime. Even if he pitches to his 2014 form, his trade value will not recover to the level where the return would be of any impact. Yeah they could save a few bucks, but really the payroll situation is fine so they can easily eat some dead money.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    Young is a replacement level player with one plus tool. Is that more valuable on the bench than what Shane Peterson provides? I don't see difference either way as significant. He is certainly not a starting candidate even on a rebuilding club.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    "Mark A says there is no timeframe for this" In other words he's asking fans not to hold them accountable. Ever.
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