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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    My original point was not that there was no risk with Suppan but that the risk is reduced considerably if he performs at his historical levels for two more seasons, because by then his remaining two years will be seen as a bargain for such a consistent solid starting pitcher so if the Brewers wish or are forced to unload him, they will have suitors. Now that's true of most of this year's free agents but Suppan probably has been as consistent as any so he's less likely to tank in 07 and 08.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    "I think you can throw out comparisons with players that signed one year deals" I don't think so. Pettitte wanted a one year deal because he doesn't know if he wants to pitch more than one more year. I'm sure if the Yankees or Astros could have, they would have eagerly given him 2 years at $24 million instead of one at $16. As for Maddux, he basically got a 2 year deal because it has a player option for $6 million the second year.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    Brian, you don't think if Suppan goes 26-22 with a 4.20 ERA over the next two seasons, teams wouldn't line up for 2 years of him for a total of $20-22 million? Assuming the market doesn't fall apart, that isn't much of a total outlay in money or years to the big market teams for middle of the rotation pitching.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    Everybody who's concerned about paying this guy $10 or $11 million for 4 years listen up. Let's look at this logically. What did the Yankees pay soon to be 35 year old Andy Pettitte? I think it was $16 million correct? What did the Cubs pay the worst starting pitcher (by numbers) in the NL last year? Are teams willing to trade for 37 year old Jon Lieber making $7 million? Didn't 41 year old Greg Maddux just sign for $10 million? Here's my point. If Suppan stays healthy and puts up average years in 07 and 08, teams will line up to trade for him for the final two years of his contract even at $10-11 million per. There's no need either to hold back Villanueva. His upside may be higher than Vargas. Let them battle it out in spring. Hope they both do well, then you have 6 solid starters, with the ability to trade any one of 4 of those 6 for a real good offensive player.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    First Craig Counsell. Now Mike DeJean? Is Jamey Wright next? Seriously, the old Brewer reliever they should have made a run at was Weathers. Not so sure what Al was referring to calling DeJean durable. Was that before or after his shoulder surgery just this past June?
  6. JohnBriggs12
    "Assuming..Suppan, that could open the door to deal one of our other starts - Carlos V. or Vargas" That will and should never happen. Pre arby starting pitchers are even more valuable now in the ridiculous market that is starting pitching. Last I checked the Brewers are still a small market team. A signing of Suppan will mean down the road probably no Sheets and likely no Capuano. They can afford all those guys for a year or two, but then the position players start cashing in. It will be the Villanuevas and Gallardos and a continual flow of young starting pitching that will keep the Brewers competitive.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    In this market, 4 yrs. 38 million is not out of line but I wouldn't go higher. It's a competitive bid. Here's the downside though. It might be a sign the Brewers don't think they'll be able to afford Sheets after 2008. And with the way the market as gone, that may be the sad fact. But that's hopefully where Gallardo steps in. As for the rotation if Suppan were signed, I don't think Vargas has a lock on the 5th spot. It would be competed for between Vargas and Villanueva in spring with the loser likely to get the long relief spot. With Suppan, I like this year's depth over last year's. Last year, Sheets was coming off of back problems. Bush was more of a question mark than Villanueva is now. The 6th starter (Helling) was in his mid 30's. None of the younger guys had shown as much as Villanueava has in the bigs, and the top pitching prospect in the system was in A ball.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    "no way can they carry 2 LOOGY's" I wouldn't say that. Most teams, including some that carry 11 pitchers, have 2 or more lefties in the pen. I don't think LaRussa would ever carry less than 2. It's a lot easier to limit their exposure to right handed hitters if you have more than one.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    Yet another head scratcher in an offseason full of them. Only plausible reason is that Hardy's surgery wasn't as successful as we've been told.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    I look for Melvin to wait until all staffs are basically filled up, then look at what's left and if any are worth bringing to camp, sign them to a minor league deal. I'd also expect some teams to either non-tender or release some players that might interest Melvin. For instance the Cubs really have no spot for Wade Miller anymore. Wait for him to be released and put in a claim.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    I thought I read somewhere that Kubel was probably only capable of DH'ing and that the Twins were leaving that spot open. Considering all the guys the Brewers are giving up are basically addition by subtraction and payroll dumps, the deal works for me with just Crain.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    San Diego has a clear need. But Melvin is going to have to stop limiting himself to wanting starting pitching in return. As I see it, the Brewers bullpen still needs help and the Padres have some bullpen depth to deal although their asking price for Linebrink has been quite high in the past.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    splitterpfg, You stumbled on something here but you draw the exact opposite conclusion that I do. As you point out, Huff, Brown, Sanders, Jaque Jones are also being shopped. I'd throw out Marcus Thames as another. Plus still available as FA are Cliff Floyd, Jay Payton, Trot Nixon and Preston Wilson. Mench and Jenkins fall pretty much at that same level. That's plenty of supply if you are shopping for mediocre outfielders. But where's the demand? Baltimore, Philly, perhaps one or two others. Plenty of supply, not much demand. Nobody's going to give up value when there is so much supply out there.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    I seriously doubt it was the money given to Matthews Jr. or Meche that caught Leyritz' eye. More likely it was the $6 million that Counsell got that sparked his interest.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    I never thought this proposal had much of a chance. With the Dodgers signing Gonzales it has zilch. The guy on the Dodgers that makes sense to go after is Brett Tomko. He's could provide long relief and starter depth that everyone is so concerned about without necessarily dislodging Villanueva at a somewhat reasonable price. Maybe a Matt Wise for Tomko?
  16. JohnBriggs12
    thumperden, I realize that but when that happens, the pitcher usually gets sent right back down. No, they had it lined up Hendrickson, Eveland, Jackson. If anything Villanueva was the guy who got a start because he was available to pitch vs. the Reds. Look it's not an exact science but I remember on blurb I read out of spring training last year where Damian Miller commented that the guy opening eyes was Villanueva. Take that for what its worth, but caution and the "seniority system" isn't always the way to go.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    "He's still just 22" No Al, he's 23. "Pitch count control"??? He only reached 100 twice as a Brewer. He's very economical: 6 IP vs Reds, 79 pitches 6 2/3 vs. Detroit, 75 6 vs. Washington 74 7 shutout vs. Cardinals 104 They don't list the number for the last game where he took a shutout into the 9th in front of a packed hostile crowd against the World Champs who when the game started needed the win.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    Carlos Villanueva has logged 465 2/3 minor league innings in his career. That's more than Ben Sheets (221) and Dave Bush (349) and Chris Capuano (440). If the man can pitch in the big leagues, what purpose is being served by him being in AAA? Corrected to reflect updated innings totals.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    I've alternately read posts in this thread and others that say we need to "fully develop" pitchers and we "can't throw rookies" out there because of what happened with Hendrickson, Eveland, and Jackson and that's why we just have to have a veteran. Yes those specific 3 rookies didn't do so well. But Villanueva did do well and because he did well, a. he is no longer a rookie and b. should be in the rotation. The problem the Brewers had with rookie pitchers in 06 is that they failed to identify the best one until they went through 3 other guys first. That's an organizational failure, and should not be an indictment of rookie pitchers in general nor should Villanueva pay for others failures. I seem to recall the Marlins had 4 rookies in their rotation for most of 06 and how'd they do?
  20. JohnBriggs12
    The Dodgers have a tremendous amount of pitching in their system. Just take a look at their Jacksonville (AA) pitching stats from last season. I doubt that Jackson excites them all that much. But a Jenkins/Lieber combo might do the trick. Or the Brewers could set sights lower forget Lieber and inquire about Tomko. He can start or pitch out of the pen, a perfect complement/backup plan to Villanueva or Vargas. And he's only due $4.1 million in 07 with club option of $4.5 in 08. Plus he's 3 years younger than Lieber.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    "the Dodgers were totally against trading any prospects away" But that's all they have left.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    Well including Turnbow is addition by subtraction and provides some salary relief. For me that makes it a better deal than just Mench for Lieber. But after reading that the Dodgers have interest in Mench, I couldn't help but prefer to grab a young arm out of their loaded system.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    San Diego has bullpen arms the Brewers could certainly use. But Melvin seems intent on holding on to Turnbow for some reason.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    "not one word about acquiring a run producer, it's going to be a long season" I'm with you MBB. Melvin says he's only looking to deal for starting pitching? That's already the strength of the team as I see it. The bullpen was awful last year. Just awful and he's got offers for the worst of the worst and he's not moving on them? And no move to improve the offense other than a slight improvement at catcher? Somethings going on here. I heard Jason Stark this morning say something about teams (including small markets) having some incentive in the CBA? to spend money rather than keep it. Could it be too that Melvin has to save face for Attanasio's promise to increase payroll? But he can't find quality to spend it on so he's overpaying marginal players? Here's an idea Doug. Instead of paying guys like Turnbow, Clark, etc. just dump them and offer some real money to actual producers in their prime like Hall and Capuano to stay around a while.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Of all the teams in either league, I'd say the Giants have the least amount of pitching to deal.
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