JoeHova
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Everything posted by JoeHova
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Jarrod Washburn is almost 35 and his FIPs from the previous 6 seasons are: 4.97, 4.52, 4.35, 4.78, 4.77, and 4.72. I strongly suspect that the way he's pitched this year so far is a fluke and he is much more likely to put up 4.7ish FIP going forward than he is to keep his FIP below 4, or his ERA below 3. If the Brewers are going to throw prospects/assets away, I hope they get a guy who is actually good and/or somebody who will be around for awhile. Washburn won't even bring compensatory picks back, all he'll bring is 2 months of average-ish performance. That has value, but I don't think that it is worth a year of Hardy or 6 years of Escobar (not even with Morrow thrown in, in the latter case). -
McClung to DL; Dillard recalled from Nashville
JoeHova replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It doesn't seem likely that Dillard will be especially effective this year but stranger things have happened (Jim Rice: Hall of Famer, to name one). -
I'm not sure if this is sarcastic. I choose to believe it's not. It's definitely true that the guys who have thrown the most pitches tend to be the best pitchers but I don't think anybody was arguing that point, as it makes sense on many levels. (Yovani's up to 9th, but the leaderboard obviously fluctuates quite a bit day by day. All but 3 of the current top 30 guys in pitch count have ERA's under 4.) It's more about this specific pitcher and the fact that he threw 36.2 total innings last year. He's on pace to throw 214, after throwing 188 in 2007. That increase seems fine, it's the intervening year with very few pitches that is slightly worrisome. Overall, I think they've done an OK job with Yovani's workload but I wouldn't mind seeing them be just a little more careful. He's really all they've got in terms of pitching, if he goes down again, the team is totally boned. I haven't seen any rigorous studies about the correlation between pitch counts and injuries, but I don't think it would hurt the team much to be conservative with Yovani when possible.
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Very good is a huge stretch, but my point was more along the lines of how he wasn't a long-term piece and also that middle relievers just aren't especially valuable. Fangraphs has Linebrink being worth .7 WAR over the past 2 seasons. That's the same as Mike Rivera over the same time period and he's only got 127 PA's in that time. I like Mike a lot but I don't see anybody advocating trading 3 prospects for him (plus, Mike's still under team control for 3 more years). So, if a "very good" set-up man is worth the same as the least used position player in baseball, why ever bother trading for a guy like Linebrink? It just doesn't seem like a good use of resources to me.
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Why is there interest in Washburn? I can see Morrow, but Washburn is just a guy. It's like getting excited for the team getting Looper or Suppan. Hard to muster much enthusiasm for a guy like that. Morrow would be a good pick-up but not at the cost of Escobar. That's ridiculous, in my opinion. You don't trade a top position prospect for a pitching prospect who already has over 2 years of service time and may be a reliever.
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Championship?
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Gallardo has thrown the 24th most pitches in baseball this season. That seems a little high for a guy who missed most of last season and is only 23, but who knows? A lot of the guys ahead of him are also pretty young (Lincecum, Lester, Felix, Verlander, Jimenez, Garza, Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Weaver). My concern is not so much his youth but the fact that he missed last season. Of course, Josh Johnson missed most of the last 2 seasons and he's thrown more pitches than Yovani.
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I like selling. I'm not saying dismantle the team, but it's possible that Cameron, Hoffman, and JJ could bring back a few worthwhile pieces for the future. I doubt that Melvin makes any moves that will help in the future though, he prefers to trade for major league scrubs whenever possible, which is disappointing. If any of those guys are dealt, they'll probably be dealt for Mench or Linebrink equivalents.
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I don't like it unless the Mariners are just giving him away. He's not really anything special despite the pretty ERA and his potential arbitration award is far too high (probably around $15 million) for a team to risk offering him arb. Giving up a good prospect (or Hardy) for Washburn would be disastrous.
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No matter how good Buchholz looks (I personally think Boston has done a masterful job of overhyping him), he's still just a pitching prospect. Give me hitting prospects every time. If Prince is going to be traded, I hope they get a surer thing than one pitcher. It would be nice to have Buchholz, don't get me wrong, but not at the price of 2.5 years of Fielder.
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The Mets are supposedly broke (relatively) because their idiot owners lost half a billion to Bernie Madoff. I'm not sure they will be in the mix for any premium free agents next off-season.
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I like Wallace a lot, though he hasn't hit as well this year as I thought he would. I'd probably go with him on bat alone, but if Gamel's average-ish defense was for real, he may have the edge. I think all 3 will probably be pretty good at times.
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Kazmir is under contract for $20 million for 2010-2011 and has a $13.5 million team option with a $2.5 million buyout for 2012. He also gets an $800,000 trade bonus. I'd rather take a chance on him than sign another scrub like Suppan, but it would all depend on how much the Rays want for him. If they would take Tim Dillard or something, I'd go for it.
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It's really easy to make, just google some recipes for "tzatziki". It only requires 5 ingredients: yogurt, cucumber, lemon juice, olive oil & garlic. Some recipes call for an additional couple ingredients (and a couple substitute vinegar for lemon juice), but those are the basics.
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expectations for 2010 of your Milwaukee Brewers
JoeHova replied to BREWCREW5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How do you figure this? I think he's fine, but there is no way he's that good. What's his signature move? -
ARRGGGHHH!!! That's terrible. They might as well re-tool the whole show and make it about different characters if they can't get the original actors back. I hope that they work this out. I wonder how far apart they are on money. Maybe they could offer them a cut of the DVD/blu-ray sales or something.
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expectations for 2010 of your Milwaukee Brewers
JoeHova replied to BREWCREW5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think that with a couple of smart moves, the team should be the favorites in the division next season. I'm not 100% confident in Doug's ability to make those moves, but we shall see. -
Dang, too bad for Nelly. I hope this doesn't cause his numbers to go in the tank. Even if it does though, he's still proven himself as a good major league player.
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Because I don't think getting a guy like Washburn or Bedard or Lee will be enough to turn the season around and I'd rather conserve the assets in order to make a run next year. Maybe trade JJ, Cameron, and Hoffman (and perhaps try to attach Suppan, if at all possible) if there are any worthwhile offers out there. Halladay might be enough to help, but I doubt he would waive his NTC to come to Milwaukee, and even if he did, the price would probably be prohibitively high for a team like Milwaukee. I don't think the Brewers can be the team that makes the big move 2 years in a row without seriously damaging their ability to compete in the future.
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I think it's time to play for next season. They still have a slim chance this year, but I'd rather trade for guys who will help next year than mortgage the future in an attempt to make the playoffs this year. They left it too late to make trading for a pitcher that big of an improvement, unless maybe if it's Halladay, in which case they'd have to give up a ton.
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That stance got them Adam Jones and Sherrill (and a few more guys) for 1 of their pitchers. No reason to not hold out for a lot rather than just give good players to other teams. Their awfulness has more to do with how few good players they have, not the fact that they won't just give those players to whichever team happens to ask for them.
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You misunderstand my point. If a player strikes out in 35% of his PA's, he has to do a heck of a lot with the remaining 65% in order to have good numbers. Most guys compensate by hitting a home run every 15 at-bats or so, as well as walking a lot. Mat was hitting a home run every 28 at-bats. He was walking at a fine rate, but K'ing that much means you have to crush the ball when you don't K and Mat wasn't really doing that. His numbers were due for a drop because his BABIP was probably unsustainably high (about .370). I'm one of the most pro-K people you'll meet, but there are practical limits to how often any certain type of hitter can strikeout and still maintain serviceable numbers. I believe Mat has surpassed that threshold so far this season.
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Gamel definitely looked like he could use a little more time in AAA, considering the rate he was striking out at. He struck out in 35.1% of his plate appearances, a higher rate than strikeout record holder Mark Reynolds has ever struck out at (33.3% was his high). Ryan Howard's high is 31%. Adam Dunn's high is 28.6%. Branyan's career number is 33.5%. I normally don't care much about K's, but when you are putting those guys to shame with your strikeout numbers, something probably needs to change. Gamel wasn't in Chris Davis territory, but it's extremely hard to put up numbers when you are striking out at those kinds of rates. Gamel doesn't have the massive, light tower power that the other guys have, he won't be able to K as much and keep his numbers respectable.
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.341/.492 against lefties is still quite good. That's approximately a 117 OPS+. Compare that to Justin Morneau's .310/.458, Ryan Howard's .306/.444, Adrian Gonzalez's .309/.426 or Carlos Pena's .313/.439. Those are the career numbers against lefties of the other 4 left-handed 1st basemen who made the All-Star team this year. Prince is by far the best against lefties among them. I think it's fair to say that he can hit lefties just fine. The team as a whole is hitting .347/.422 against lefties this year, so how does the team "crush lefties" but Prince doesn't, when his career numbers against them are far better than what the team is doing? Even last year, when the team's platoon split was far more pronounced, the team as a whole hit lefties to the tune of .348/.458, still worse than Fielder's career numbers against them.
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But Lopez can fake it at SS and play a pretty good 3B. He's the quintessential utility man. There's no reason to think he couldn't play 1B or OF too. A guy that can play multiple positions and hit within shouting distance of league average has value.
