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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I had back acne in college and they gave me topical steroids to get rid of it. Guess they should have banned me from our softball team and took away our "drank the most beer" trophy we got that year. Seriously, I don't think it is the writers job to pass judgement on players who were never judged by MLB. A lot of players have some sort of slight against them that makes some sort of sense but back acne just points to how ridiculous this entire thing is. I'm a big fan of the idea of adding some sort of comment about their suspicions to the plaque they get but you don't keep someone out because he had back acne, that is just foolish. Showing up on the Mitchel report. Having to go to court because of strong allegations etc at least makes a little sense but lets not turn this into a witch hunt.
  2. Ennder
    That rule was added at one point, maybe they should just remove it again since they ignored it for 60 years anyway.
  3. Ennder
    Yeah I know. Those people should lose their votes~. Just like the 1.5% of guys who didn't vote for Ripken.
  4. Ennder
    Well Biggio will get in eventually for sure. Piazza probably will too given that result. Royce Clayton got 0 votes in case anyone was curious!
  5. Ennder
    http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/3260169-74/liriano-pirates-agent#axzz2HRcSqguX Maybe they'll sign Lohse now!
  6. Ennder
    It hurts the Brewers if they want to trade Hart mid season though. It used to be teams would at least get a comp pick so he would retain a lot of value. Now he becomes just a rental and his value is depressed significantly.
  7. Ennder
    Only if the $ sign precedes a bad FA contract. Large market teams aren't out bidding other teams on marginal players (look at the Pirates out bidding the Yankees on Martin as an example), they are pushing around their pockets when it comes to big name players and generally they are doing so by vastly overpaying the players value.
  8. Ennder
    That is awful for baseball. You have to pay your good but not great guys because you can't get squat for them otherwise but your elite players have no reason to sign with you. This is a complete joke and needs to be changed as fast as possible.
  9. Ennder
    I think Gennett will end up being a utility infield type of player but the fact he can't really play SS is going to really hurt him. Probably hit the majors and have a 3 or 4 year career maxing out at like 150 PA in any given season or something like that. I'm not a huge believer in him either.
  10. Ennder
    I think when they signed LaRoche because nobody was willing to give up a comp pick it showed a lot about Hart's value. Mostly that his value is pretty darn low.
  11. Ennder
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/nationals-to-sign-adam-laroche-1.html I only post this because he seems like a pretty comparable player to Hart. If we could do a deal like that with Hart I might consider signing him again. It is pretty scary that nobody was interested in LaRoche because of the comp pick attached. Kind of speaks to the value teams put on non elite 1B moving out of their prime.
  12. Ennder
    To be fair they aren't failing on top prospects as much as they used to even 6 or 7 years ago. They have identified more and more of the little flaws that hold a player back.
  13. Ennder
    Especially considering the field next year. I would have to assume Maddux goes in 1st vote and anyone who leaves him off should lose their vote. Glavine, Big Hurt, Mussina, Kent etc added to the mix.
  14. Ennder
    I think if you are holding guys out because of steroids you should be voting in Mattingly, McGriff and Murphy on the good character and almost good enough stats clause. If you are able to get past 'character flaws' then I wouldn't vote them in. The character thing has to be a two way street though. Then again all 3 of those guys deserve to be in over Puckett or Dawson so the whole thing is kind of a sham.
  15. Ennder
    There is a website that tracks people who have publically given their ballot and they have gotten about 10% of the vote and nobody is set to get in from that 10%. I forget what the site is called though.
  16. Ennder
    Seems fair enough. A deep system without a lot of top end talent. It would look a lot better if we didn't graduate 5 rookies last year.
  17. Ennder
    His K% is almost exactly the same as 2011 though. His fastball velocity is within completely normal variation and most players do lose velocity with age even as they improve as pitchers. tERA is a pretty awful stat and it is mostly catching the fact he had a spike in HR/FB% which is almost always a fluke given the sample sizes we are talking here. It stinks that his control gains from 2011 didn't hold but this is not a pitcher on a downward trend in any way. I'm sure the projection systems which look at all these factors and not just ERA will project him about the same as he has been the past couple of years because his skills have been almost completely stagnant with only small year to year variations none of which have stuck long term.
  18. Ennder
    Downward trend? Not sure how you are evaluating pitching but he has more or less been stagnant for 4 years now. Nothing about his past 4 seasons makes me think anything but statistical noise in any single category. He has been one of the steadier pitchers in baseball.
  19. Ennder
    Yes Segura will hit for a higher AVG but if he only gets a BB half as often it won't matter, he can't hope to be as good a hitter. So much of his offensive value is going to rest on what that BB rate is for him. If he can get it up to 8 or 9% and keep it there we have a somewhat valuable guy, I just fear it is going to be more like 5% in which case he just isn't going to add much offense unless he adds some power. I think the key point to this argument is assuming you hold all things steady including SLG a guy who hits .220 with a .330 OBP is just as valuable as a guy who hits .300 with a .330 OBP. The AVG itself doesn't add anything at all assuming you hold all other things steady between the players. Obviously it isn't realistic for everything else to be the same but if somehow it was AVG in a complete vacuum has no value.
  20. Ennder
    No as I showed before, that is right in the playoff picture. If you told me I could have 83 win talent every single season I would take it in an instant for this team and I'd expect to make the playoffs on a pretty regular basis. The in between is if you fall down in the 75-79ish range. The range where even if things go right you still might not make the playoffs. The Brewers should either be pushing for a win or two more or go ahead and shed a good 7 or 8 wins. Shedding 2 or 3 wins is where the disaster is. Here is an example... http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_ You'll notice teams that get up around 83 wins have about a 1 in 3 chance to make the post season. Ideally you would want to be in that 85/86 win range to get up to a 40-45% chance. You can live with anything in the 80+ range since those generally give you a 30%. Once you start dipping down under 80 wins it tends to get ugly pretty quickly. Keeping in mind a good start usually means adding a win or two somewhere from a trade or pickup and a bad start usually means you can sell and get prospects.
  21. Ennder
    Yeah I'll be happy if Segura keeps an 8% BB rate. I expect it to be more like 5% or 6% though. His BB rate is a pretty big key towards his value though. Also if I had to pick the absolute best person to lead off for a team it would be a high OBP and high K rate since that is the spot in the order where K% matters the absolute least. Old Weeks had too much power to lead off but he didn't K too much for it.
  22. Ennder
    Yeah I wouldn't vote in Sosa because I don't believe he was a good hitter outside of steroids. I wouldn't vote in Lee Smith either. I might skip Bonds in year 1 and vote him year 2. Morris shouldn't be in the hall and I think Lofton falls short too. Schilling and McGwire are really close cases for me.
  23. Ennder
    In 2010 he was much better vs RHB than LHB and in 2009 he showed a completely normal split for a LHP. In 2008 and 2007 he was better vs RHB than LHB. So out of the past 6 years he has been better vs RHB 3 of them, normal 1 year and better vs LHB 2 years. These aren't splits that jump out to LOOGY. It is a watch him pitch and use scouting to evaluate situation. There is no way they are going to start him as a LOOGY to start the year unless they see something that says he should be. Those stats don't mean anything.
  24. Ennder
    Gonzalez shouldn't start the year as a loogy. You guys are reading way too much into a small sample. 4 years ago you would have been saying he should never face a lefty since he couldn't get them out for 2 seasons straight. Don't have much faith in Axford and Henderson as the 8th+9th guys so I'd really like to find one more arm to add to those innings.
  25. Ennder
    Well Upton is a guy a team makes room for, Hart really isn't. You either try to win or you don't, sitting in between is how you kill your franchise. So I don't think trading Hart for prospects makes any sense at all unless you trade other players as well or the prospects are major league ready (which I don't anyone gives that for Hart). I also disagree with your initial statement. The range of outcomes for a team any given year is just huge. If I say the Brewers are an 80 win team I'd expect them to win between 70 and 90 games and wouldn't be surprised by any outcome in that range. If you get your roster to where you honestly feel it is a .500 team you are a playoff contender and I feel that the Brewers are right there. It is a young rotation and it is going to be very hard to project how good it is going to be. Personally I set my sites on 83 wins again. Last years team didn't seem to have freakish good luck or anything. The combination of bullpen guys and Wolf that we released offset what we lost with half a year of Greinke and it is about the same offense.
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