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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I would feel awful if we had traded Braun to make a run, but Lawrie is no Braun and he certainly is no Rodgers. Also this is being results oriented. That was a roster fully capable of winning a world series, it wasn't like we traded away the future to just get in the playoffs. If Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum pitch to their norms we had a team that could easily have gone all the way. We had a roster the next year that would have been in the hunt again if not for a miserable start. I will be honest here with the Melvin era, there are parts of the story we just don't know about almost for sure. Are some of the more oddball signings because of the owner and not the GM like some of the background stories suggest? Is the reason we pushed our prospects up faster than we should have been part of the rebuilding the fanbase movement or a misjudgement by Melvin? How much of the win now mentality is Melvin going for it and how much is directed by upper management/ownership? How on earth did we ever hire both Yost and Macha? They are such complete opposites that the same guy hiring both of them makes no sense.
  2. Ennder
    As if signing Michael Young (at least he used to be good) and Delmon Young didn't look bad enough, he just added Betancourt. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/phillies-sign-yuniesky-betancourt.html I look for him to trade for Francoeur next and corner the market on below replacement level players.
  3. Ennder
    NO, but it certainly doesn't mean literally nobody thought he was going to be a HOF type player. The hype around Lawrie was way overblown after his first partial season.
  4. Ennder
    viewtopic.php?p=794969#p794969 Lawrie compared to Braun and being said to have more potential. viewtopic.php?p=789061#p789061 Lawrie's WAR will match Braun's. http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7729121/toronto-blue-jays-third-baseman-brett-lawrie-bound-greatness More talent than George Brett. viewtopic.php?p=773598#p773598 I dunno remember who posted it but at least one person thought he had HOF type potential. This reminds me so much of Nelson Cruz who has been a complete bust outside of hitting well only at home in a massive hitters park like 3 years after we traded him when he was already moving out of his prime and people say we made the worst deal in the history of baseball when we traded him. This was definitely a window type trade, we had a couple of year window where we had a real chance to make a move in the playoffs and they went for it. We actually had arguably the best team in the NL the one season and tanked it vs the Cardinals. This is not some big failure move just because you would rather have played it safe. Either path makes sense.
  5. Ennder
    Oddly enough Lawrie's value so far has come down to defense. The Brewer's assumed he would have negative value defensively and so far he has been well above average. If Lawrie continues to have well above average defensive stats this was a really bad trade no matter what happens. Having said that Lawrie went from being a HOF player (according to the many who loved him) to being league average offensively last year so who knows what to expect.
  6. Ennder
    Yeah I was just looking at this year. On paper this year the Braves aren't better than they were last year other than the fact that all of their young guys have another year of experience. This isn't a huge step up from last year though I do think they are better overall.
  7. Ennder
    To be fair the Braves positional players are probably a downgrade right now compared to what they had last year. Prado is as valuable as Upton, Bourn was more valuable than the other Upton and Chipper was more valuable than their 3B platoon.
  8. Ennder
    Only if you decide it is this in your mind. Right now his legacy is turning around probably the worst franchise in baseball and handing it the 2nd most successful stretch it has ever had under the Brewers name.
  9. Ennder
    FA values are almost never good, if you gain half of their value in wins you are darn lucky. It is almost never a good idea to sign a FA from a strict dollar value.
  10. Ennder
    I think the Nats are do for a pretty big letdown offensively since so much of their offense overproduced last year. The rotation will still carry the team to the division win though. As for the strikeouts, they just don't matter at all. I could link a dozen articles to you that prove it but then we've already been through that before. I'll just say that last year the A's crushed the K record and scored a lot of runs and the 3 lowest K teams in the AL were all below average offensively and lost at least 90 games.
  11. Ennder
    Regardless a good move for Marcum. Sign on with a low pressure team with a mess at SP in a pitchers park.
  12. Ennder
    www.northsidebaseball.com can be good. Just don't say anything negative about the Cubs because they are quick to ban people, even if you are just agreeing with what they are saying. They have some really touchy moderators.
  13. Ennder
    Given what Kapler did for us anything is possible!
  14. Ennder
    They have a lot of quality depth at OF in the minors so it was a low risk move. Morse is really nothing special either, doesn't walk enough, bad baserunner, poor defensive player. Yeah his power is nice but he is replaceable. Their bullpen really wasn't anything special last year, it just had a good ERA. They were middle of the pack in the NL in FIP and one of the worst bullpens in xFIP. Some of that is park factor and defense and part of it is likely just good fortune. Bullpen ERA is extremely volatile year to year.
  15. Ennder
    Greatest manager in baseball history and way ahead of his time. Funny thing is if he managed today he would still be ahead of his time since most managers are so awful.
  16. Ennder
    There was no reason to think Swisher would not be picked up. Hart would be signed by someone, even if he had to settle for just a 2 or 3 year deal. The Brewers would be more than happy to go with him for 1 year as a QO price as well.
  17. Ennder
    Hart has been quite injury prone even during the season so I find it hard to believe.
  18. Ennder
    He had a .305 OBP last year. He was a slightly above average offensive player for a CF. When you add in baserunning and defense he was certainly above average overall which makes this a bargain.
  19. Ennder
    Those comps don't really mean much at all. They spit out comps to like 1000 players for most guys and the #1 isn't much different than the 800th. They obviously can never be perfect since players change all the time but over the entire entity of baseball there are certain aging patterns, changes in effectiveness due to switch parks etc and these will tell you more about a player than just looking at previous stats will most of the time. This is yet another case of needing to understand how to use something to make it useful. If you don't understand the underlying uncertainty and the fact they are based on percentile aggregates you probably can't understand how it could be useful. Just like BABIP used improperly is useless but used properly can really tell you a lot.
  20. Ennder
    Not to mention the Morse trade freed up just about exactly the same amount that this cost for this year.
  21. Ennder
    Morse has one year that he has put up any real value. He is a bad fielder and a bad baserunner. Casper Wells is about the same value as Morse, throw in the other guys they can rotate around and yeah I think it is marginal at best. This is 1 year of a guy who in no way is going to put them over the hump into the playoff mix. Why not just dump Jaso for a prospect. Jaso is an extremely good hitter against righties so he is a platoon type. I don't see the A's starting him full time.
  22. Ennder
    The Nats only other real opening is at 2B and there aren't any good ones available. That roster is rock solid at every other position but the bullpen was a concern. Storen has a shady health history, Clippard doesn't really profile as a closer and Stammen has a career ERA over 4 and peripherals that didn't really give you confidence he can repeat last year.
  23. Ennder
    This deal makes no sense at all for the Mariners. Morse is a marginal upgrade at best over what they already have and Jaso was a valuable piece that should have gotten back more than 1 year of a mediocre corner OF moving out of his prime. Jack Z has been a pretty terrible GM so far.
  24. Ennder
    This would be a much more fitting complaint if the Nats were actually big spenders. They have built the team around cheap young talent and their payroll isn't really out of line with the Brewers. This isn't really about the market, this is about a team built from the ground up that has an average or better player at every position except part of the bullpen going for it before the cheap guys get too expensive. This deal puts $7M on the books for them this year. If the Brewers thought they were 1 player away from a serious world series run I'm sure they could find another $7M.
  25. Ennder
    Jaso is extremely high upside so I get it for the A's. Mariner's aren't really competing for anything so don't see much use in this deal for them.
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