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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Yeah I would agree with this. If you are looking at 4 years of WAR it probably is going to be a decent comparison, not perfect but decent at least. Better than any other single number you can point to at least. I'm not sure it is better than just comparing offense and then fudging the numbers one way or the other to account for park, defense etc though. I just don't think they have a good grasp on adjusting those parts of the game yet, it is too subjective.
  2. Exclusive? Not sure about that. Larkin saw a 20% jump in his votes from last year. 20%. If he wasn't a HOFer last year, then what changed this year? Just because no one better than him was eligible this year doesn't make it right for the baseball writers to "all of a sudden" see how great Larkin was (and yes, I'm glad he's in, well deserved). The system is wrong, and it frustrates me. There should be a two year window to get in. If you were good enough to make it, then the voters should vote you in accordingly w/in that first two years of eligibility. That's what I call exclusive. They would have to change the voters to do this. Fair or not some votes put a lot of weight into how long it takes for someone to get in. There are guys who won't vote Maddux in just so he doesn't get a unanimous vote, there are people who thought Larkin was a HOF player but not a 'first ballot' HOF guy so voted no the first couple of times. I agree the system is dumb but it is the voters fault more than anything else.
  3. Larkin was an easy choice. Martinez and Raines are a strong case. The rest of the list is a bunch of nos.
  4. WAR is about giving results not showing how good a player is so once you start using weighted averages over multiple seasons you are creating a completely new stat. The problem with WAR is that baseball is way too random for a single season of any stat to really mean very much and no stat is close to perfect at defining just how valuable someone is, especially a stat that you try to adjust by position or park since those adjustments are flawed to begin with, so you are always going to get results that look weird.
  5. Hardy was embraced because of the big finish he had to his season more than anything else. Unless the player acts like a tool I don't even pay attention to his race and I embraced Hardy and not Escobar. Though I'd rather have either of them than Gomez or Betancourt.
  6. Yet another nice move for the Cubs, starting to get worried that they will actually get things turned around now that they have a real GM.
  7. I know this is correct in concept but I certainly wouldn't trust this to be true in any way.
  8. If you want to make a statement like 'clearly the better pitcher' you have to back it up with something. Zambrano was pretty terrible last year. His K/9 has gone down, his GB% has gone down and his HR/FB has gone up. His velocity is down. His contact rates against are way up (his out of zone contact rate is up by 20%!). He clearly isn't making hitters make weak contact the way he used to which is what he has survived on more than anything in his career. If you gave the Brewers Zambrano for free I would make him a RP and depth at SP at this point, he just isn't very good anymore.
  9. Not sure I agree with this. Volstad has better peripherals over the past 3 years, has been healthier and is younger. Volstad has pitched in the better park but with a much worse defense behind him so I think skill wise they are probably a wash at this point only with Volstad being cheaper and younger. The only thing Zambrano really has going for him is the bat and I'm not sure a pitcher gets up to the plate enough for this to offset the advantages Volstad has.
  10. I'd rather just start Volstad to be honest, you would have to pay me to take Zambrano off the Cubs hands. This is the kind of thing that scared me when the Cubs got the new GM, he immediately realized that Zambrano is dead weight and the team is better off without him even if they have to eat his contract and get nothing back in return and he managed to actually get something back.
  11. Well Crisp is worth more than that so I'm guessing they just have a good relationship with each other but yeah I'd rather just go with someone young instead if I were in the A's situation.
  12. This is true, but it is also true that if he had spent the proper amount of time in the minor leagues he probably would have developed at least some plate discipline. I think it is probably too late at this point but he is the classic case of the player who was set up to fail in the majors. If you could turn back time and give him 2 more full years in the minors I bet his major league stats look a whole lot better.
  13. The sample of 8 starts is so small that it would be hard to put any real meaning to it. Sounds like searching for goofy stats to try to prop up your opinion instead of actually looking at stats to see if your point is valid or not. Marcum was one of the better pitchers in the NL last year, hard to really complain about his regular season performance, if we get that every year from him we'll be happy. The post season obviously needs to improve.
  14. That is exactly what they did the first few years and attendance shot up quite a bit. The sole reason attendance started to jump was the offense and that is the quickest way to put an 'ok' team on the field. Like I said from a long term talent standpoint it isn't the best way to fix things but from a put fans in the stands in the next 5 years standpoint which is what they were facing with a new park and a franchise completely in the dumps it is probably the optimal path to take. It is lower risk and more exciting to the casual fan. Even before Sabathia and the playoff run the attendance was growing 2-3M a year and to be honest the easiest way to get up to a .500ish win team is draft a bunch of big bats since the flame out rate isn't nearly as high. It isn't the best way to get to 90 wins but that wasn't the original goal imo, the original goal when they started the rebuild was to get the fan base back. I think it is important to always remember just how terrible this franchise was at one point. We had almost no good major league talent and almost no minor league talent, it was a complete shambles that had to be rebuilt from ground up. When Melvin took over we had already started to build the minor league system a little but the franchise was still in sad shape even then. It was a 10 year project at that point and 10 years later the franchise is in a much much better place, even if we are looking at a gap in minor league talent atm.
  15. The Rays most certainly had an advantage over all of baseball when it comes to where they drafted and that helps for sure. They also have done well picking, it is really part of both. The Rays also took 10 years to build a winning team, it isn't like they magically did it over night or something. While the Brewers might not stack up directly to the Rays they stack up very well compared to most other teams that were dismal as recent as 10 years ago. A 582-552 record over the last 7 years is very nice given the state of the franchise the 10 years before that and the overall payroll they have had to work with over that time frame.
  16. Papelbon became a closer because of injuries so I don't see it as a waste. The best reasons to move a SP to RP is they only have 2 pitches or they have injury issues. Bailey is an injury prone RP so I don't see that he has a ton of value and I don't expect his ERA to be anywhere near what it has been since his stats have eroded, he'll be in a hitters park and the peripherals never matched the ERA until last year, not really sure if those prospects are any good or not so can't comment on the trade itself much.
  17. Market size really has very little to do with anything, we are a mid payroll team and should be judged as that at this point. While I think Jack Z gets way too much credit and he put us in a big hole with his lack of ability to draft pitching or worry about defense the truth is offense puts butts in the seats. So drafting the highest upside offensive players and making some high profile trades was probably the best way to rebuild the fan base considering what terrible shape the franchise was in. They didn't go about building this team the best way from a talent standpoint but it probably was close to optimum from a rebuilding the fan base standpoint. Melvin certainly has his flaws but overall he has been a better than average GM. Compare this team to the Pirates and just look at the difference in results and attendance considering both were in about the same state when Melvin took over. The Pirates squandered their talent and made bad trades and are still where the Brewers were 7 years ago at this point.
  18. Prettyuch agree. Morgan has to sit vs lh. Gomez is not good enough to start every day.
  19. Errors don't lower a players value anymore than not making it to a ball in the first place. Escobar was better defensively in 2010 as Yuni was in 2011 even with the errors. The defense just looks better for a guy like Yuni who just can't make it to a lot of balls that 90% of other SS in baseball do.
  20. Gonzalez has elite talent so I get the deal from the Nationals perspective. However don't let those innings last year fool you, he pitched hurt a big part of the year. I consider him damaged goods so I think the A's did the smart thing by dumping him for prospects.
  21. Not Beltran that's for sure. He had a really solid year last year. This is a good deal for the Cardinals, they are probably the favorites for the division now, especially if Wainwright comes back healthy.
  22. Overbay had very little value so the fact we got what we did for him was good. We were never going to get a high upside guy in trade for him. So many of the Melvin complaints are based around unrealistic expectations.
  23. Yeah this is a bad move by the Reds and the other move was questionable if not bad, I'm just not feeling the Reds love here. They are better for 2012 but the franchise as a whole has taken a pretty large step back overall. I say that as someone who likes the Reds and has an Eric Davis avatar!
  24. Put me down as someone who would prefer Aramis over Rollins as well.
  25. If nothing else this gives us hope that it might end up being the 25 game type suspension which would be much better.
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