Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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The Brewers went 8-2 before the all star break in 2017. They went 10-4 in 2015. They were bad in 2016 and 2018. It is almost like it is just random noise. -
Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Ennder replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If I recall correctly, the Brewers have exceeded FGs projections for at least 3 years in a row. Exactly, which is why I look at particularly Fangraphs' projections with a pretty major gran of salt. The Brewers have had a number of players play way outside expectations each of the past 2 seasons so this doesn't really change my opinion at all. Especially last year they had a charmed season overall. I also think Counsell is in the top 25% of managers and squeaks a few extra wins out of the team. -
Stanley Cup is simply awful, uglier than most high school trophies.
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I think that Gomez might have something to say about that title. Both were horrible on the bases, that can't be denied. Sadly this goes to Villar and it isn't even close. Dumbest player in baseball history from a basic game theory stand point.
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Stearns has his work cut out this trade deadline. Tigers are open for business...I go get Miggy. Solves the 1B issue Sadly he is a downgrade for both of them and even for Shaw if you include defense.
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Ennder replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I feel like the Cubs have hit their 90th percentile projection so far. The entire rotation has stayed healthy which is a big deal since they have no depth at all. The lineup has not only been healthy but it has mostly produced at the upper end of expectations. Baez has repeated even with all the K's, Bryants shoulder has held up, Contreras has taken a step up, Bote has actually been good etc. They have had a bit of an injury stack in the bullpen but more or less the Cubs are playing at the top of their range. The Brewers are much harder to read because they have so many guys playing way below expectations and many playing way over. The Cardinals are at like the 30th percentile of their outcomes, bunch of injuries, bunch of guys having flat seasons. I don't really feel like there is a clear favorite here, I think the Cubs are extremely vulnerable. -
This is nothing but a pure fluke, nothing in his peripherals supports his ERA this season. He may be a high 3 ERA guy instead of a high 4 guy but that is about the best you can hope for from him. His barrel rate against, hard hit percent against, BB% etc are all higher than they have been in recent seasons. He is striking more out which is good but everything else is pointing to absolute fluke. No big loss.
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Thats cool, I have reached my tipping point with people saying things that make no sense and then defending it when questioned. There is no way that someone who really gets baseball thinks Guerra has been good this season. If he wants to piss on me because I look at meaningful stats instead of a 17 IP sample of ERA which takes 500 IP to start to become meaningful so be it. This forum has been corrupted by knee jerk low knowledge posters to the point it is hard to stomach visiting at this point. I actually have him on ignore because of the consistent low quality posts but I made the mistake of clicking on display this one time. Anyone referencing ERA in a 17 IP sample just doesn't get baseball, it means absolutely nothing in that sample. LOL. You aren't wrong, and please continue to post as much as possible. Still, you aren't helping yourself here. To be fair I also have adambr2 on ignore because of his low quality posts over the past 2 years. Had a few beers tonight so let myself be baited by displaying these bad posts. Figured I'd be asleep by now but this game won't end.
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Braun's launch angle has increased during his hot streak.
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Thats cool, I have reached my tipping point with people saying things that make no sense and then defending it when questioned. There is no way that someone who really gets baseball thinks Guerra has been good this season. If he wants to piss on me because I look at meaningful stats instead of a 17 IP sample of ERA which takes 500 IP to start to become meaningful so be it. This forum has been corrupted by knee jerk low knowledge posters to the point it is hard to stomach visiting at this point. I actually have him on ignore because of the consistent low quality posts but I made the mistake of clicking on display this one time. Anyone referencing ERA in a 17 IP sample just doesn't get baseball, it means absolutely nothing in that sample.
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He really hasn't been good at all. Playing with fire any time you put him in a high leverage situation. Your kidding, right? No not at all. He has a 4.92 xFIP and a 4.86 SIERA. He isn't striking anyone out and his walks are really high. His hard hit/medium hit percents are also high. Guerra has been terrible this season. If you are using ERA to judge RP at this point in the season you just have no idea how baseball works. Guerra has been in the bottom 20% of RP in the league for quality so far this season.
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Going into this game he had a .700 OPS over the past 2 weeks so he has heavily slowed down. I would easily take the field over him at this point. He has a ton of holes in his swing. He could win it but it is like a 1 in 5 shot or so and that is mostly because the NL rookie field is a little weak this season. Right now the clear frontrunner is Paddack for me but he'll hit an innings issue at some point.
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He really hasn't been good at all. Playing with fire any time you put him in a high leverage situation.
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I waived Travis Shaw from one of my fantasy teams today...
Ennder replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Glad you took one for the team, it was a mistake to waive him though. He is too high end to give up on this early in fantasy. -
Yep. The team is playing as well as could be expected so far with the brutal start. Outside of Yelich things have gone poorly as well. Yet we still are doing about as well as you could hope for.
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Reading a post like this reminds me of why we need a like button. Until we fix this pitching mess (both the starters and bullpen) any notions of making the post season let alone having success there is a waste of time. It reminds me of why we need a dislike button because it is so obtuse that it is worthless.
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Please don't put much emphasis on something so subjective as DRA. DRA even takes into account someone's opinion of the umpire, the catcher calling the game and framing, temp., someone's opinion of the park, the team's defense, etc.... Because there are far too many variables based on opinion, not fact, DRA is in the eye of the beholder. it is fine that you do not trust it, but it is still 1 million times better than judging these guys by ERA. ERA is the worst stat you could ever judge pitchers by in a small sample like this. ERA is just worthless and unfortunately people who don't understand baseball live by it.
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Most of these guys won't bring back anything. But this is just a silly discussion in genera. there is nothing about this season that suggest we are selling other than happening to have 2 bad games in a row that people are overreacting to because they are silly.
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No we really aren't. We are seeing a tiny sample of IP and making wild speculative judgements about it that really mean very little. Chacin is one good game away from pitching to expectation. Davies has been better than we expected. Anderson was pitching well before he got hurt. Woodruff's peripherals are solid and is also really just 1 good game away from expectations. So you are saying the pitching coach is obviously the flaw here because two guys they were hesitant to put in the rotation last season started the year poorly. There is no logic in that.
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Dana LeVangie led the Red Sox rotation to a world series win last season as the pitching coach finishing 3rd in the AL in ERA for starters. Last time I looked the Red Sox had the worst starter ERA in the AL this season and that was like 2 days ago, Baltimore may have passed them at this point. This is just baseball, you can't just blame it on a new pitching coach because you want a scapegoat. The young pitchers are not locating their pitches well at all and that happens sometimes with young pitchers. Pitching coaches matter for sure but nowhere near to the extent you are trying to make it seem. Also trying to judge pitchers in April or even early May is a fool's errand. A lot of guys off to horrid starts will look like all stars by the break. It takes some guys a while to get their control. (this is for all teams not just saying for our pitchers).
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This has completely flip flopped recently as expected. Talking about ERA in these really small samples is just silly. It takes 500 IP for ERA to mean anything at all and over 1000 innings for it to mean a ton, it is just an awful metric to try to judge a rotation by.
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Braun Working on a Swing Change
Ennder replied to True Blue Brew Crew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Brauns xwOBA was .370 last year, anyone who talked about him being DFA'd is just a moron and nothing else last season. His stats this year are much more concerning and have nothing at all to do with what happend last season. I'm guessing it is still just small sample but at least it is supported by the stats that matter and not just the stats that people who don't understand baseball prioritize. -
I mean, did you really expect anything more? Not all of us are pessimists. And some of us know something about baseball, this in game thread is just awful. Especially the part about the pitching coach, there is no way the pitching coach has anything to do with Houser getting hit hard tonight by a good offense. This is why I have half the game thread on ignore at this point, too many people who don't understand the game has ups and downs.
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Braun Working on a Swing Change
Ennder replied to True Blue Brew Crew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That shows up in the stats though. It showed up in Bautista's big time. You start to trade LD for FB or you start to lose your ability to hit fastballs or your ability to hit breaking balls goes. Braun was as good as ever against fastballs and breaking balls last season. He barrelled the ball at a better rate than normal, kept his LD% in tact. His expected stats actually went up. This may be happening this year but it isn't likely it was last year. That shows up in the stats quite clearly and it just isn't there. Last year he just had horrible luck.
