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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    If it is really Pomeranz that is just awful. I will have lost all faith in the team if that is true.
  2. Ennder
    Its a bunched up wild card with few teams as pure sellers and with a clear dominant team in the Dodgers controlling the road to the World Series. This is a really bad season to try to pull off some huge trade to go all in. These are exactly the types of deals I expect to see. I would say the Brewers pitching problem is injuries more than anything. So yes adding filler type guys addresses the need until the injured guys return. This would be a terrible time to go after like a Greinke.
  3. Ennder
    They also gave up moss who is a legit major league arm. This is a very underwhelming return for the Reds. Gray is a good pitcher, 3.50 ERA type guy. Castillo is pitching way over his head by ERA, he is showing the skills of a 4 ERA guy which is what I would project for him next year. Bauer has pitched like a 4 ERA guy his entire career except for 2018, this seems like a lot to pay hoping that 2018 was the legit year.
  4. Ennder
    Nice deal for the Indians, exactly what they needed. Padres are the big losers here, Reyes is going to be a stud, they should have sent Renfroe instead. Reds are just kind of meh, they still aren't a playoff team next season and then they lose what they gained here. This is the ultimate poor timing move by them.
  5. Ennder
    I think it is 500 and that is just when it starts to become meaningfully predictive at all, not in relation to FIP. ERA is just an awful stat to judge a pitcher by.
  6. Ennder
    Unfortunately everyone is hurt so they had to do something, this is pretty underwhelming but at least its healthy.
  7. Ennder
    Which isn't going to make them feel better when they piss away this lead and miss the playoffs yet again which I predicted like 2 months ago~.
  8. Ennder
    It makes the Cubs better so....not love. Holland would be the 9th starter for the Brewers which just shows how much more depth they have than the other teams in the NL central. Unfortunately the Brewers are so hurt that the 9th starter is actually important at this point. The Cubs rotational depth is just awful.
  9. Ennder
    super shaky result for the Brewers here, Cruz was awful until he was released and resigned and then got suspended for steriods. He was never good outside of Texas for the next controllable part of his career. Hard to call this one a big fail compared to most of the others in this list.
  10. Ennder
    Arcia has never looked like a major league bat, he didn't look like it in the minors either. For some reason people always have high hopes for SS bats but he just has never shown anything but very short flashes at any level.
  11. Ennder
    Arcia has never looked like a major league bat, he didn't look like it in the minors either. For some reason people always have high hopes for SS bats but he just has never shown anything but very short flashes at any level.
  12. Ennder
    A lot of this depends on the next CBA. If you can either keep him a 3rd year or get a great draft pick for not taking the qualifying offer it is much more plausible to not extend him. If the CBA changes this somewhat it is less plausible.
  13. Ennder
    At this point in the season Burnes is a 1 pitch pitcher, his slider is strong and everything else is garbage. Very few one pitch pitchers succeed. I don't know why his fastball has been such hot garbage this season but he can't' survive without it.
  14. Ennder
    Miller Park is home run friendly but it also inflates strike outs significantly so they somewhat offset. Probably something to do with the crazy shadows and the questionable batters eye.
  15. Ennder
    Sorry but he did. Over the sample he is quoting outside of this past month we had a winning record and a positive run differential. Trying to claim this is a season long problem when it literally has only been a one month long problem is nonsense. If we play 50 games with a .600 winning percentage and a+100 run differential and then play 25 games with a .200 winning percentage and a -100 run differential you can't say we have sucked for 75 games. We have sucked for 25 games. The stats he quoted do not say what he claimed at all, it is simple math and his math doesn't add up.
  16. Ennder
    The issue with ERA is it is a team stat. The defense matters, the bullpen matters, shifts matter, how the team handles pitching around players etc matter. ERA is not at all descriptive of how a pitcher actually pitched, it is just a result The better pitcher you are the more controllable it is but if one pitcher has a 5 ERA and another has a 4 there is no clear answer as to which was the better pitcher. Context dictates it more than anything.
  17. Ennder
    No you didn't show that at all. You showed that the one bad month still looks bad when you add a 57 game stretch where they played over .500 with a positive run differential. You literally posted complete nonsense and you are still defending it. Trying to say that it isn't just one bad month and then adding a sample where the team was above average in both record and run differential is just downright weird. Before this bad month literally nobody thought the team was playing poorly and the stats told you they weren't either, it is a one month bad stretch.
  18. Ennder
    They're 39-45 in their last 84 games with a -30 run differential. Completely meaningless stat though. They are 2-7 in their last 9 games with a -25 run differential. So going into that 9 game stretch they were 37-38 with a -5 run differential or a roughly .500 team. In the past month they are 10-17 so before that they were 29-28 so a winning record in that sample you quoted. They had a -38 run differential during that month so they had a +8 over the rest of your sample . So your proof is based on them going 1 game over .500 with a +8 run differential over my month sample. All you are showing here is how you can make a sample size say what you want it to. A month ago nobody was complaining about where this team was and nobody thought the season looked bleak, they had a super cruddy month, that isnt' enough to call them dead. The Red Sox also had an awful month, as did the Cubs. This is just how baseball goes, it is insanely streaky.
  19. Ennder
    Nope, I've watched baseball more than just this year. A bad month stretch doesn't mean a team can't compete. In fact this same team had this same month long lull around this time last year. It really means very little. It hurts the chance at the playoffs but it doesn't really set a new narrative for the quality of the team.
  20. Ennder
    Nothing at all wrong with how they handled Shaw, guy hit 30+ HR two years in a row, you give that a lot of rope. Using Burnes in 2 tied games in this serious is Yostian though, no excuse at all for it. He probably shouldn't be on the team but if you have to keep him for whatever reason he should not be pitching in a close game unless every single pitcher has been used and your back is against the wall in the 9th or later.
  21. Ennder
    As for the pitching coach. Davies is better this year than last year. Anderson's ERA is about the same though he has actually pitched better this year. Gio pitched better this year before he got hurt. Woodruff has pitched better this year as a starter. Miley being gone has been the biggest impact as well as Chacin regressing but everything about Chacin screamed regression. There just is no real evidence that the pitching coach has anything to do with any of this. The Reds brought in an almost completely new rotation so their improvement also is very hard to judge. Castillo is the poster child for showing an improvement but his peripherals haven't actually improved and going into the season he was marked as one of the most likely pitchers for positive regression given how much better his peripherals were than his ERA last year. ERA is just a completely worthless stat.
  22. Ennder
    At no point this season has Guerra pitched well, he just didn't give up runs for a small bit. His xFIP by month is 5.12, 4.27, 4.19, 6.38, 4.75. He just isn't good and shouldn't be used for anything but mop up duty.
  23. Ennder
    When you blow a 5 run lead in 1 inning it is never the manager or GM's fault, it is the players. The worst RP in the majors should consistently finish that game.
  24. Ennder
    I was gonna say Woodruff but turns out he bats lefty~.
  25. Ennder
    He still hits the ball hard but his plate discipline has been falling apart for years now as is his defense and foot speed. He hasn't even had any real injury concerns this season other than just his normal extra rest. He just hasn't been a very good corner outfielder.
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