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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I was right about Hardy, Hall, and Hart. They are just not as good as many thought. All have serious holes in their swings. Ahh, but nobody listens and gives me some padded stat that ends up meaning nothing. Hardy>Hart>Hall. Triple H of Garbage. It was pretty easy to be right about Hall, nothing suggested he was a great player. The verdict is still very much out on Hardy, two good years followed by a down year.
  2. Ennder
    I think something weird is probably going on with the pitching projections or more likely maybe with the Brewers defensive projections causing the pitching to look worse.
  3. Ennder
    More importantly even if he has fallen that far they should be able to tell before he makes the big league club so the risk isn't all that high.
  4. Ennder
    Depends on the era of Coors. It used to really help HR big time back when Pierre played there but it also really helped singles hitters because the infield grass played so fast. Now they have the humidor and they keep the infield grass longer so it slows balls down more so it probably favors a line drive hitter finding holes in the OF over a pure power guy or a groundball guy. The general point stands though, it isn't helping every type of player the same.
  5. Ennder
    I'll go with the combination of a change of scenery, moving to the NL and his underlying stats suggesting growth last year leads to a breakout by Gomez. He won't be a star but he won't be the black hole offensively that he appears to be so far.
  6. Ennder
    Baseball is doing fine, not sure where this is coming from. The league is hardly out of control and teams aren't in trouble of going broke, last year was the 5th highest attendance total in history and only saw a decline of 6% even with the recession which was much smaller than predictions. Something does need to be done about the top 20% of teams but things aren't anywhere near as bleak as that suggests.
  7. Ennder
    They don't say a hit is as valuable as a walk, a hit also provides SLG while a BB doesn't. If anything OPS undervalues OBP and overvalues SLG so some sorted of weighted stat is better. It isn't. WAR is hardly a perfect stat. They do factor into WPA/LI which are called situational wins and Cameron was only slightly above 0 in those so it agrees that his value offensively wasn't that high last year. The problem with the stat is it doesn't show much yearly correlation so it is hard to think it is some significant skill and not just variance most of the time. Just to comment on another post in here, park factors are pretty much garbage. Different players are affected differently by different parks. Juan Pierre does not gain the same value from Coors that Matt Holliday did. Petco actually helps a slap hitter like Tony Gwynn Jr. while it completely destroys a gap power hitter. Manny Ramirez is helped more by Dodger stadium than he was by Fenway even though park factors will say the opposite. They need a lot more work before they are really useful.
  8. Ennder
    The whole Dave Duncan thing is way overstated. He 'fixed' Lohse in 2008 and then Lohse had a 4.74 ERA in 2009. He fixed Wellemeyer in 2008 and then he had a 5.89 ERA in 2009. He fixed Marquis in 2004 and then in 06 he was up at a 6.02 ERA and then in the mid 4s agian. Carpenter is the only pitcher who has shown great improvement under Duncan and kept it. Most of the rest is one year blips here and there followed by an equally crappy year the next. The Cardinals favor defense and play in a pitchers park, that has as much to do with it as anything else.
  9. Ennder
    Because sitting in the parking lot for an hour after the game is annoying as heck and unless the game is close I don't mind listening to the end on the radio on the ride home? I rarely stay for an entire game mostly because i have young kids and the games are too late. Even without the kids I'd probably leave games that aren't all that close before the end. Then again I enjoy watching/listening to the game as much as going to them so maybe I'm just different.
  10. Ennder
    If I wanted an objective opinion on how good a player was I would much rather talk to someone who never saw him play. There is so much bias in fan observation that it gets in the way of the truth more often than improving on it. The human side of baseball is included in the stats. It doesn't matter if Counsell is a gritty battler or a lazy slob because that is included in his stats. As for Listach in 1982, I'm sure he had a lot of big hits that year. His OPS late and close was .831 afterall. Of course his OPS in high leverage situations was .601 so he had a lot of failing in big situations as well. Since his success happened to be late in close games I guess they stand out more.
  11. Ennder
    I'd say it is very debatable who was more valuable given how terrible Braun was defensively. I'd still give the award to Braun though since defense can be hard to measure over a single season.
  12. Ennder
    Probably Sheets if we don't make the playoffs, Davis and Hawkins if we do. I see no reason to think Sheets will be able to throw even 150 IP this year so his value is really just trying to get a team into the playoffs and shouldn't be counted on to actually be active the last couple months. Then again we gave too much money to Hawkins so gonna be hard to include him in something like this and have the Brewers still come out ahead.
  13. Ennder
    Nady has only broken 1 WAR one time in since 2003, hard to think the Cubs got some sort of big deal here. He's a below average defensive corner OF who can't really play every day. Add in the fact he is coming off of his second TJ surgery and I think this deal is very luke warm. He could give them some value but nothing to get excited about.
  14. Ennder
    Wow, that came out of nowhere.
  15. Ennder
    Davis has been better vs RHB than LHB in his career so wouldn't worry about it against him. Wolf has a split but it isn't extreme. This will probably be hardest on Parra.
  16. Ennder
    You can most certainly get value out of base running even at the major league level. There is generally one team that gets 20-30 base runs above average from it which is good for 2-3 wins for the season. To use the 2008 NL as an example since I found those stats easily, the Phillies were +20.34 and the Giants were -24.47. That means base running alone could have given the Phillies 5 more wins than the Giants that year. That is a very significant difference. Of course just having fast guys isn't enough, they have to be smart about when they take the extra bases because making outs are so devastating.
  17. Ennder
    Without the injury Bush probably would have been our 2nd best pitcher last year, I don't really think $4.2M is excessive for him. There is really no reason to expect him to be worse than Suppan or even Parra for 2010, unless you are just really invested in a small sample at the end of last year where he was hurt.
  18. Ennder
    Most GM's would probably just laugh at Melvin if he offered it. Which means the Mets might just take it.
  19. Ennder
    Zaun is better defesively than Kendall, Gomez is better defensively than Cameron and Escobar could plausibly be as good as Hardy. I find it unlikely that it is worse. It is either a little better or maybe a wash.
  20. Ennder
    He is also a below average defensive SS. I think the Orioles will play him at 3B which reduces his value some.
  21. Ennder
    The pattern of a players stats within a season sometimes can have some meaning, especially an older guy like Cameron or with a player who got hurt like Dave Bush. There is no pattern in those stats though, that is typical hot/cold streaks like almost every player in baseball goes though. Now if he was hot in April/May and fell off a cliff the rest of the season or something I'd be more worried about him.
  22. Ennder
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/4/1233988/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects Brewers have 5 SP that were graded B- or better by minorleagueball. Those are all considered likely to make some sort of impact in the majors. They also have 4 more that ranked C+ which have a chance for at least a bullpen role if nothing else. They have 11 more ranked as C prospects of which usually a couple sneak into a major league role though most are misses. We have quite a bit of pitching depth in the minors now, we just have to get by until we see which ones pan out. The team has an exceptionally deep minor league system right now. The one weakness being not much in the way of can't miss stud prospects.
  23. Ennder
    You are way underrating what another year in the minors does for a player. Escobar starting last year would have almost certainly been a disaster offensively. The only way I could have been upset with Melvin is if he went into last year with Escobar as the starting SS and no real backup options if he struggled, that would be the absolute worst plan he could have had. Trading Hardy and picking up a 1 year option at SS like an Orlando Cabrera could have worked though. Of course Melvin did explore trade options for Hart and Hardy before the season and just didn't find the right deal so this is almost all hindsight anyway.
  24. Ennder
    Almost every team has a heralded group of young players, getting one playoff and barely missing another is hardly some huge let down. Especially for a team that was miserable with a miserable minor league system when Melvin took over. Hardy, Parra and Weeks suffered through injuries. Every other young pitcher we've drafted except for Gallardo hasn't panned out. It happens.
  25. Ennder
    The question was top 10 offensively. Find it hard to believe offensively you'd take all those guys over Cameron unless you really have a thing for AVG.
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