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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I think you need to look at team needs and not just the pitcher as well. Let's say there were 2 Rich Hardens and 2 Randy Wolfs. If I could only sign one of these guys to the Brewers this season and then the off season was done I'd take Wolf every time. We need those innings so bad at this point that it is totally worth it. If I got to sign two of these guys to the Brewers for this season I'd probably go with 1 Wolf and 1 Harden. Once you have the innings covered I'd rather go with the shorter commitment and higher upside. For some teams Wolf would make more sense, for some Harden would. The Rangers have a lot of pitching waiting in AAA so for them I think Harden makes more sense. Half a season of Harden and half a season of some scrub out of our AAA system isn't likely to match a full season of Wolf and that is what it comes down to. We have that same black hole in the minors next year too so we are covered for 2 years. The 3rd year I'm not crazy about but oh well.
  2. Ennder
    Depends on whether you are just looking at 3 years of ERA or career talent or what. Davis had a 3 year run of something like a 4 ERA. Capuano had a 3 year run of like 4.35 ERA. Wolf might match those he might not, depends on how much luck he gets. If you use something like xFIP he is probably more likely to match it as both of those guys had better ERA than peripherals.
  3. Ennder
    I'd go after Duchscherer myself.
  4. Ennder
    We could sign Doug Davis tomorrow and would have to be considered in the playoff hunt imo. I sure hope we don't sign Doug Davis tomorrow btw, just saying. I don't think Ben Sheets is likely to outpitch Doug Davis though so I don't want to sign him either. For sake of ease our CHONE for the rotation would be... Gallardo 3.60 Bush - 4.64 Parra - 4.75 Wolf - 4.42 (maybe a bit higher as that is not modified for park) Davis - 4.69 Not a great rotation by any means but enough to keep us in the race in what shouldn't be a stellar division. I'll take the under on Wolf and the over on Davis in that list for what it is worth.
  5. Ennder
    Sadly he very well could be. At least back to like Higuera or Eldred.
  6. Ennder
    Harden/Sheets types are the guys you want to sign to help you get to a playoff game. They will put up decent stats for half a year, get you a few extra wins and hopefully push you into the playoffs. That is great and I'd love for the Brewers to sign one of those guys, but they fill a very different need than what we were doing with Wolf. This team needs a reliable pitcher to plug into the rotation every day for the next few years while we rebuild our pitching depth in the minors. Wolf fills that role a lot better than Harden.
  7. Ennder
    I disagree with that. Harden was not all that good last year, he struggles to throw strikes or get past the 5th inning at this point. He can't throw his slider or split finger anymore so he is a 2 pitch guy at this point. I think his arm is still messed up personally.
  8. Ennder
    I guess this is the rub right here. I don't think Hudson is significantly better than Wolf. Hudson is more of an injury risk than Wolf and has a career 3.79 xFIP. Wolf is safer and has a career 4.24. Wolf's xFIP trend has been positive since his injury problems. I think their overall value is pretty close to be honest. I think they both got too much though.
  9. Ennder
    I don't know about that, his ERA has been under 4.00 for 7 of the last 8 years. 2007 was a spike in HR/FB%, 2008 was a bad LOB%, 2009 was a good LOB%. xFIP likes him for slightly below 4.00 ERA which is probably about the right level. Just like with the Wolf deal, I like the deal ok but I think we overspent to get it.
  10. Ennder
    I like the signing but I wish we only gave him $24M.
  11. Ennder
    Wolf is a better pitcher than Suppan so it shouldn't. The concern would be injury more than anything. Now if we had signed Garland you could worry about it being another Suppan deal since he has the same anemic skillset that Suppan does.
  12. Ennder
    Garland is basically no different than Suppan in my opinion, he is just younger so isn't in his decline phase for a couple more years yet. Wolf is a step up from that type of pitcher.
  13. Ennder
    Oops didn't even notice they were taking SB out of it. The best vs worst is still usually in the 2 wins range though even with the SB added back in. Oakland was #1 with 12.5 runs, Baltimore last with -21.9. Brewers were towards the bottom with -7.5 mostly because of stealing.
  14. Ennder
    Not sure if this is a joke or not but that just isn't how it works. Halladay had a .313 BABIP against last year, are you trying to say he doesn't know how to pitch?
  15. Ennder
    Vargas is the same pitcher he always was, he just got lucky with RISP last year stranding 90% of the runners on as opposed to a more normal 72% for his career. This was probably largely caused by his insanely low .203 BABIP last year. xFIP pretty much tells the real story with him 4.62 4.64 4.85 4.54 4.50 I don't mind bringing him back but don't expect a sub 4 ERA even as a RP.
  16. Ennder
    http://www.fangraphs.com/.../runnin-the-bases-part-1 The best team in baseball usually gets under 2 wins from base stealing, the worst gets under 2 losses from it. Last year the Brewers were break even.
  17. Ennder
    Yeah at this point I'd expect Wolf to get more on a 1 year deal than Penny does. He is less of a risk and to be honest I think he is a better pitcher. ERA might not show it because Wolf was in a hitters paradise and Penny has been in pitchers parks.
  18. Ennder
    I think you either need to use league average for everything or for nothing. The fact that it corrects two aspects that are high variance and ignores the 3rd makes it flawed in my opinion. I would want to either use just ERA by itself and ignore the flaws with it or use xFIP which attempts to correct for everything. LOB% is no more random than HR/FB% is. If a pitcher gets unlucky with BABIP or LOB% his WAR is going to be higher than you'd think basically, if he gets unlucky with HR/FB% it doesn't change. That makes no sense to me at all, why correct 2 areas and not the 3rd. In this specific case I do not think the fact that Suppan got lucky with HR/FB% in 2007 and a little unlucky in 2008 suggests he was way better in 2007 than in 2008. The FIP trend is 4.42/5.51, the xFIP is 4.90/4.79 and the WAR was 2.5/-0.2. The ERA trend was 4.62/4.96. To me that points to a flaw in the system more than anything, especially for an established pitcher like Suppan.
  19. Ennder
    Looks like it might be 3/31 in which case they'll almost certainly regret that 3rd year.
  20. Ennder
    I don't love xFIP either but it is certainly better than FIP or just looking at ERA. A pitcher has some control over his BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB% but all 3 stats are very high variance so you can't not correct for them at all, they should be regressing them towards his career rates, not just completely ignoring them and assuming all pitchers are the same for each stat.
  21. Ennder
    Nope I was just mistaken logan, thought his salary went up this season. Assuming you are pulling WAR from fangraphs they use FIP to build it which is a pretty flawed stat in the first place since it overcorrects for things like BABIP and LOB% and completely ignores HR/FB%. They need to rebuild how they figure WAR for it to really be useful. In fact I'd argue the stat doesn't even know what it is trying to be. It doesn't do a great job of showing how good or bad a pitcher is, it certainly doesn't give a good idea of how good his results are since they correct it for BABIP/LOB% but not for other factors. It is just some hybrid stat that doesn't really tell you anything except how good a FIP a pitcher had. For hitters it is pretty good, though I don't trust the defensive side of it all that much and I tend to think park adjustments are handled poorly and muck things up some. I mean Dodger stadium is a better park for Manny to hit in than Fenway was but I'm sure he gets bonus WAR for being in a 'pitchers park'. I'm sure Juan Pierre does too and it really shouldn't be hurting him at all.
  22. Ennder
    Pitching WAR is just not a very good stat. I wouldn't try to use that to judge players. If you absolutely have to use it then check out Suppan's for the last 2 seasons and you wont 'want to group him with Wolf.
  23. Ennder
    All of those deals were worse than Suppan's as was Pierre's which wasn't even listed. He actually earned his money the first season, the second season he was overpaid but not excessively so(no I don't think pitching WAR is useful at all, it is horribly flawed~). Last year was pretty bad though and I imagine this year will be downright atrocious since he got a raise and his production is going the wrong way.
  24. Ennder
    I think Penny is certainly the lower risk deal than Wolf. I also think the Brewers need 3 years of pitching so the Wolf for 3 years makes more sense for us. We have some arms coming up now but they aren't going to be reliable major league starters until at least 2 years from now if not 3.
  25. Ennder
    His xFIP trend is pretty nice and one thing that jumps out is his HR/FB% was always high for the Phillies. I'd say the park had more to do with his ERA being higher than his FIP than anything else.
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