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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Most likely he has 2 years left since I don't see them bringing him up in under 20 days. I still think Hardy nets a major league level prospect, kind of like Delmon Young brought back Garza as an example. Not an ace prospect but a decent one.
  2. Ennder
    Looper is pitching poorer than expected using one single (somewhat flawed imo) sabr statistic. By the majority of sabr statistics and traditional ones he is doing almost exactly what was expected. Maybe a tiny bit on the high end because his last start wasn't so great but right in the general range.
  3. Ennder
    To be fair I'm not overly worried about Hardy stinking again next year. He is hitting just like normal vs RHP and having an absolutely miserable year vs LHP. Usually that isn't something that is sustained. My guess is either his back has been bothering him all year(since his power is gone) or that his new stance is messing him up which is something that seems fixable. His two good seasons didn't have any fluke indicators that suggest they aren't repeatable by him in the future like say Hall or Hart's big years did.
  4. Ennder
    But what was Suppan's WAR before his injury and pair of bad starts, I bet it was over 0.2 by a good bit. I'd rather eat the Hall deal as well but if I could just make one of the two deals go away and not have to pay it, I'd rather have Suppan's go away.
  5. Ennder
    Every single pitcher on the team is pitching worse than expectations except for a couple bullpen guys I guess. While I have no reason to believe Castro specifically is the problem I see enough evidence to suggest that if the people running things think he isn't doing a good job they probably have a good reason.
  6. Ennder
    Because Melvin was supposed to know that a player in his growth phase coming off of back to back good seasons was going to fall off a cliff? Escobar wasn't ready and we were in win now mode, I still think not trading Hardy was the right thing to do unless we could get a very solid starter which is what Melvin was holding out for I'm sure.
  7. Ennder
    Jack Wilson had trade value and Hardy is as good or better defensively and a better hitter than him. He still has some trade value. I highly doubt Escobar plays full time. A lot of teams like to break in young players in part time roles and that seems to be the way Macha likes to do it too.
  8. Ennder
    The Cubs had one of the riskiest rosters in baseball from an injury standpoint so I don't think comparing injuries with them is exactly fair. Other teams with major injury issues are mostly doing poorly as well, teams like the Mets. I'm fine with my preseason prediction in general but I think I was being too generous with the rotation. Not because I think our starters are as bad as they have pitched this year but because I didn't account for the complete lack of depth properly. If we had some decent AAA arms I think the team is still doing fine but the complete lack of depth has just killed us.
  9. Ennder
    This team is as good as the Nats and they just won 8. You are completely out of reality with how streaky baseball is if you are going to believe that we are completely incapable of a big winning streak. Any team in baseball can play over .500 for a month, any somewhat decent team can play well over .500 for a single month. It isn't likely but it happens every year for a couple teams.
  10. Ennder
    I bet Hardy is moved for a 'potential' starter and not a legit one. Someone like a Buchholtz type rather than an established sure thing starter.
  11. Ennder
    If you had told me Parra would completely fall apart, Bush would miss half the season, Weeks would miss most of the season and Hardy would completely disappear all year I'd probably have said like 80 wins or so instead of the first 86 guess. That is what makes them predictions, you never know when a team is going to underproduce expectations.
  12. Ennder
    This is the crux of the disagreement on the NFL, this statement simply is not remotely close to true. If the Patriots and Lions both offer a guy $5M a year the Patriots will always get the player. Let's look at it from the players standpoint. NE is a bigger market and a more popular team so he can make a lot more money on the side from endorsements. It is also generally thought of as a better place to live. It is also a team that is generally in the playoff hunt every year compared to a perennial loser. The reality is if the Patriots offer a guy $4M a year, some mediocre team offers him $5M a year and the Lions offer him $6M a year he still isn't picking the lions most of the time. A bad team in the NFL pays at least 10% more for a free agent if not higher. Endorsements alone make up half of the difference for a player. This bleeds into their home grown players as well as more of them walk to other teams even if the Lions make competitive offers. The Lions aren't any better off in the NFL than the Pirates in MLB. Take college sports as an example, the players do not get money but they always flock to the best location/reputation/winning history schools. Even if you even out the monetary side of things you do not get competitive balance, there are way too many external factors getting in the way.
  13. Ennder
    http://www.fangraphs.com/...ly-bad-playoff-rotations Those are the worst rotations to ever make the playoffs though you have to do some research on your own as well. Of course for the Brewers to make the playoffs it assumes the pitching gets hot. While they are a bunch of 4.50-5.00 ERA pitchers they still have their months of 3.50-4.00 ERA when things bounce right, if things bounce right for a couple of them and Gallardo and Parra keep doing decently it is possible for the team to get hot. I still think the odds are under 10% but they certainly aren't 0%.
  14. Ennder
    It really isn't that simple. The Yankees pay more money per win than any other team in baseball. To take the NFL as an example the best teams pay less per win than other teams. They are completely opposite situations. I don't see how anyone can say the Yankees and Pirates are 'balanced though'. Of course the Lions and Steelers aren't either and neither is the best vs worst team in the NBA. No sport has competitive balance and I doubt it is even possible to have it.
  15. Ennder
    Everyone was saying that preseason because of the big jump in HR% last year. Even reading sites like BPro you find them comparing pitchers to Hoffman as an example of someone who 'lost his stuff' and suddenly started giving up a lot of HR, even though it was a 1 year fluke. A spike in HR/FB% is not a reason to be down on a player, it is why I dislike FIP so much btw since it corrects for other things but ignores HR/FB.
  16. Ennder
    ERA+ is nowhere near what I would call a SABR stat. SABR would say Weathers is a pretty bad pitcher, all signs point towards his ERA being a mirage. Some RP seem to be able to keep bad peripherals and good ERA though so hard to just dismiss the end results since they cover so many years.
  17. Ennder
    Hoffman was done last year and his jump in HR/FB showed that he just didn't have anything left. How is that working out this year? A jump in HR% is rarely an indication of anything unless it comes with a spike in FB% as well. The WHIP of course is concerning.
  18. Ennder
    Weathers is Riske basically. Same substandard peripherals, same strong ERA for multiple seasons even with the peripherals. He is a pretty risky RP overall so not sure I'd like him for that price tag next season.
  19. Ennder
    The packers defense broke down from injuries more than anything... Well I should have stuck to my guns with the agree to disagree that I mentioned at the beginning~. I admit baseball isn't perfect but the NFL does not have true competitive balance either, people just like to point at the cap and assume it makes everything perfect when it isn't anywhere close to the truth.
  20. Ennder
    Small market MLB teams don't really overpay free agents, large market teams have to overpay to get guys usually. Injuries play a larger role in the NFL than MLB as well. Lucky bounces obviously don't play a role in the best teams but there are usually 2-3 teams in the race in the last week that just had a few lucky hops. Look at the 2008 vs 2007 packers as an example, the 2008 squad was probably a better team but the luck went the opposite way for the two teams and ended up with incredibly different records when both were probably around .500 teams.
  21. Ennder
    And if Tom Brady were to become a free agent in football the amount the Lions would have to pay him would do the same thing because they would have to blow more competitive teams offers out of the water to make him go there. Baseball's system is far from perfect but my point is more that other sports aren't great and fair either, even the ones with caps. There were maybe 5 teams in baseball that were 'locks' to make the playoffs in baseball to start the year in most peoples minds and at least one of those probably won't actually make it. There were only 4 or 5 that had 'no chance'. They need to keep working on ways to bring the top teams down some and the bottom teams up some but the middle teams in general are set up pretty good right now. I think that 2/3rds of the league are on a pretty even playing field, find ways to fix the other 1/3 instead of just bandaid fixing it with a cap. There have been a number of good suggestions on how to start doing that in this thread so far, it is a work in progress but I like the path they have been taking overall.
  22. Ennder
    If the Brewers want to sign Braun long term they can do it. There can let other players walk and give him a huge contract and sign him, there is nothing stopping them from doing it. So I think that first premise is offbase to begin with that we just can't hope to ever re-sign anyone. The Brewers can't afford to pay more than he is worth is where the issue comes in, the Yankees can hand out bad contracts and eat the extra cash and be fine with it. This means the Yankees pay more money per win than other teams in general and their salary advantage is almost always overstated (though still very much a real advantage, don't get me wrong). The NFL basically has the same situation. If the Lions want a player they have to pay him more than he is worth because most players would rather take less money and play for the Steelers. This means the Lions have less cap room than the Steelers because they pay every player more than them. This means when a big name goes free agent they rarely end up on a bad team and this concept of an equal salary cap isn't true in reality. Large markets also offer much more side money in endorsements etc. It isn't driven quite as much by the teams revenue but the same basic concept is at work. Good/popular/big market teams have significant advantages over the other teams.
  23. Ennder
    Yeah, 16 game schedule vs 162 game. Robust minor league system compared to a cap system that puts most of the money into the starters and leaves most teams with little depth and every year a few random players are picked up off the streets to fill in for injured guys. I could see how it would be confusing.
  24. Ennder
    You aren't the only one. My friends and I were all huge football fans back in the day but since they added the cap pretty much the entire group of us have become bored with football and quit paying attention to anything but the Packer games. Players move around too much, too many mediocre teams, season is decided by lucky bounces and injuries more than other sports. To top all that off the more popular/better teams still have all the advantages since they get to sign players for less where the crappy teams have to overpay to get people to come play for them. It is still fun to watch random games but none of us 'follow' the sport anymore if that makes any sense. The sport just has no personality anymore. If baseball moved to a cap like the NFL has I'd would ruin the sport for me.
  25. Ennder
    The nice thing is that none of the teams they have to pass for the Wild Card are really very good. It won't surprise me if any of those teams tank it the last 50 games. The biggest problem is just how many of them they have to pass.
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