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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    To me it has all the signs of a bad manager pushing a pitcher coming off 3 partial years and the pitcher hitting the wall because of it. Sheets should have been babied and instead Yost kept throwing him out there the extra inning.
  2. Ennder
    As a type A free agent only teams who hope to compete this year and had holes in their rotation and could afford $10M+ a year and weren't in on the other big name pitchers would have been interested in Sheets. That is a small handful of teams. Once Lowe signs I'd think Sheets will start talking to more people.
  3. Ennder
    Parra didnt' have good results. His K's were up, his BB down and his GB% up, all things you love to see in a SP. He just had a high BABIP against probably from the fatigue. He showed great growth in the 2nd half.
  4. Ennder
    Brewers were an 86.5 win team at the end of the year using W3, I'd say the players who are still on the team right now underproduced compared to their talent though. Most of our overproducers are not with us anymore. Sheets, Sabathia, Branyan, Kapler, heck even Torres probably. Kendall's defense is about the only thing that really overproduced with what was left.
  5. Ennder
    Parra had 9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 55% GB rate in the 2nd half last year which is an elite skillset(3.17 xERA), he showed tremendous growth throughout the season. Put me down for a mid to high 3 ERA and just under a K per IP with something like 180 IP. Pitching is too random for me to give a more accurate prediction than that~.
  6. Ennder
    To most people it would look better even though it shouldn't. The fact he tries to come back for the start of 06 and aggravated it is somehow worse than just losing a full season. I've never been able to figure out where that thought process comes from but people treat those two cases very differently. If Sheets had missed all of 2005, was healthy in 2006, had the finger thing in 2007 and then a sore elbow at the end of 08 I don't think people would say he is as injury prone as what really happend. Somehow that injury (which they predicted would take a year to recover from btw) spanning two seasons has made him more injury prone.
  7. Ennder
    Also I'm guessing you are saying Torres was one of our best pitchers and he really wasn't. The loss of Torres is offset by a healthier Riske and a lack of Gagne/Turnbow most likely. Gallardo replaces a chunk of what we lose in Sheets. The team lost about 11 wins from the pitching and maybe 1-2 wins from the bench. Gallardo/Parra replaces a few of those pitching wins, dumping Gagne/Turnbow and a healthy Riske probably get back the 1-2 from the bullpen. That means we are down something like 8 wins in talent over last year right now. I'd say right now the Brewers are in the 82-84 win range given it is a young team likely to gain a little bit overall and that we have Cameron for a full year to give a tiny bit more value. If we sign someone like Looper that moves us closer to 84-86 where we hope for some luck and/or breakouts and a wild card. We certainly aren't a 90 loss team though~.
  8. Ennder
    They were the same pitcher pretty much, one just had a blip in BABIP and gave up a couple extra HRs. The important stats for evaluating talent were pretty much steady. Wood to Gregg is a downgrade. Howry to Vizcaino is a downgrade. Marmol as a closer instead of being used in highest leverage situations is a downgrade. Zambrano career trend suggests an injury and a downgrade, Harden's health trend suggests a partial season, Lilly's trends look good. Dempsters season had a lot of luck last year and won't be repeated(though his skills validate a lot of it, he is going to be a decent starter most likely). Samardzija was more strand rate than great pitching so I doubt he sustains it. Marshall is probably an upgrade over Marquis but Gaudin as the backup is a downgrade over Marshall as the backup so most likely over a full season that is a wash. This pitching staff as currently constructed is most likely a downgrade over last years unless Harden manages to stay healthy all year. The offense probably is slightly upgraded when Bradley is healthy and downgraded when he isn't. The defense has been downgraded over last year slightly. It is an old team to begin with so there is always the chance a couple guys slip some. I don't know i think this team is pretty much the same as last year which I'm sure they are fine with given the number of wins they had. I just dont' see the moves they've made as being a big deal so far. They are lateral moves overall.
  9. Ennder
    I highly doubt it would win 88 games with last years Nationals lineup. Zambrano is creeping up to 4+ ERA range, Dempster will likely go up near 4, Lilly already sits at 4+. Harden isn't likely to pitch a full season and Peavy will likely be in the 3.50 range after leaving Petco. It would be a very good rotation but it isn't enough to carry a bad offense to 88 wins.
  10. Ennder
    They lost quality in the bullpen by losing Howry and getting vizcaino, they lowered the quality of depth in the MI, they lowered quality of depth in the OF most likely if Gathright really does get to play and Pie gets moved since he is out of options. They have lowered the depth in their rotation by losing Marquis. They have added more injury risk with Bradley, vizcaino toa team that already had a lot of injury risk on it, they have moved Fukudome to CF which also increases his injury risk. Miles cannot play all over like DeRosa and they wouldn't want him to if he could so they have lost a little depth from that angle. Just because they can plug a player in to fill a hole doesn't mean they don't lose depth. If someone gets hurt on that team the quality of player replacing them is lower this year than last year.
  11. Ennder
    I don't think anyone is saying the Cubs are worse than last year, just not any better. They have moved some pieces around, become a little riskier as a team and not really gotten any better.
  12. Ennder
    But just saying he has been 'on and off the DL for 4 years' isn't really being fair either. I mean he had one injury that bridged 05/06 and then a jammed finger and that is his DL time over the past 4 years. He has had some other minor day to day type stuff and then the predictable sorenesss last year after Yost abused him in the first half and made him hit what should have been his innings limit two months too early. Burnett as an example had elbow surgery in 04, elbow soreness that landed him on the DL twice in 06 and shoulder problems that landed him on the DL twice in 07. He is a much riskier pitcher than Sheets. Some team will give Sheets a deal worth more than his arbitration I'm sure unless there are actual tests that have been done that show that currently something is wrong with him and they just haven't shared that news with the public.
  13. Ennder
    Again today I get a not available message on both TV sets for this I don't know if something is just wrong on my end or what.
  14. Ennder
    Can we please stop with the dramatics. We could lose Gallardo on opening day and the Brewers would likely not lose 95 games. It takes a very bad or very injured team to lose that many. Gallardo isn't worth more than 5 wins over a full season so unless you think we are a 90 loss team with him for some odd reason (I guess I wouldn't be surprised if you did) then this is just being a pessimist.
  15. Ennder
    True, I don't know why anyone would think someone who went 198 IP with an 3.09 ERA would be worth taking a 'big' risk on. He is done and should probably retire.
  16. Ennder
    This is true in youth sports and the mental aspect plays a part in the pros but you are way off base if you really think the mental aspect is MORE important than physical at the majors, there is absolutely no way that is true. He ends up in the hole roughly 4% more than an average player so while he does end up behind more it isn't laughable in any way. In fact he is a very good hitter when down 0-1, it is when he gets behind with 2 strikes that he starts to really stink but so does every other hitter in baseball.
  17. Ennder
    The astros are a sub .500 team right now. This is a really mediocre to bad series of moves for the Cubs. They have destroyed their depth in order to chase a player that may not be there to help them come playoff time which is what they are really building for. They could have done nothing and won the division most likely but instead they killed their depth and added injury question marks and probably made the team worse overall come playoff time.
  18. Ennder
    Bradley is actually an above average fielder, it is mostly Soriano that is bad in that list.
  19. Ennder
    Well it was working again this afternoon and now it isn't working again tonight. I think they are just having issues with it. I'm in tosa as well.
  20. Ennder
    spring training 2004 - rib injury april 2004 - high ankle sprain June 2004 - shoulder injury August 2004 - Hamstring injury May 2005 - finger ligament tear August 2005 - knee April 2006 - knee April 2006 - hip May 2006 - oblique June 2006 - shoulder August 2006 - ankle April 2007 - oblique April 2007 - hamstring May 2007 - wrist June 2007 - calf July 2007 - oblique Aug 2007 - hamstring Sept 2007 - oblique Sept 2007 - knee Apr 2008 - hamstring May 2008 - shoulder May 2008 - head June 2008 - quad July 2008 - knee July 2008 - quad Aug 2008 - back Aug 2008 - knee Sept 2008 - wrist Sept 2008 - back Those are just the injuries that made him miss a few games, there were more little ones.
  21. Ennder
    Since he's going to be a DH for the Rays, I'm not sure why you're counting his defensive value.He won't just play DH and his positional value goes down almost as much as his defense once you make him a DH. The positional adjustment used for him the last two years have been -7.5 and -7.3 and the positional penalty they use for DH is -17.5. The last two years he has been -19 and -10.8 runs as a fielder so that makes it -26.5 and -18.1 compared to -17.5. He'll also take a hit to his offensive value in that park and from moving to the AL instead of the NL which I didn't really take into account and probably offset the difference between being a DH and being a LF, not to mention any age decline we might see. The Rays have a number of other players that would make sense to spend DH time as well, especially if there are any injuries. Aybar, Pena, Baldelli if he comes back, Crawford if his injuries act up, Gomes if he makes the team etc. I'm guessing Burrell sees at least 30 games in the OF next year.
  22. Ennder
    Personally I think Weeks biggest problem is not making strong contact. His career BABIP is only .299 which is low for a speedy groundball hitter like Weeks. Over his career he has had 15.4% of his flyballs result in popouts which is an very high number. His LD% is low so he just doesn't get many clean hits compared to most players. Most people think he swings at a lot of bad pitches but he really doesn't, he has one of the best rates in baseball for that. He only swings at 18% of pitches out of the strike zone. Vlad last year as an example swung at 45%! of the pitches out of the zone and he made contact on 70% of those that he did swing at!
  23. Ennder
    Well lets look at the most important teams. Phillies - Burrell to Ibanez is probably a downgrade and I think that is their only major move so far? It is a team in its prime mostly though so I don't think they'll lose anything to age. Mets - Have upgraded quite a bit with the bullpen but might be downgrading at SP and I doubt Delgado repeats his season. Reds - Treading water Cardinals - Treading water Astros - another year older and probably were lucky to begin with last year. Cubs - Maybe upgraded but probably more vulnerable as well this year. Marlins - You just never know with that team since they have so much youth. I'm more worried about the moves the Mets have made than the Cubs but I'm not ready to give up on the division either. The Cubs had a lot of roleplayers with career years last year. Zambrano is headed for arm problems according to most experts. The bullpen lost depth, the infield lost quality depth. The OF is old and has a lot of injury potential in it. Dempster isn't likely to repeat what he did last year, Harden is an injury waiting to happen. The Cubs seem to have traded away most of their depth in general to be able to afford Bradley. This is the kind of team where injuries could pile up and turn a season into a disaster. Melvin obviously needs to add at least 1 SP and an IF and hopefully a quality bullpen arm so what comes of those moves will say a lot about the team. Right now I think we are missing the wild card by a few games.
  24. Ennder
    Starting Marshall instead of Marquis is an upgrade for the Cubs, Bradley is a decent sized upgrade over what they had last year. Miles is a huge downgrade over every MI they had last year. The bullpen has been downgraded. I think the Cubs are probably about the same as they were last year which was good enough for an easy division win so I guess they'll take it.
  25. Ennder
    Using fangraphs as an unbiased 3rd party (one that has all the info in one place and is easy to use at that!) Hardy was worth $25M last yaer, Jeter was tops in the AL at $15.9M and Cabrera was 3rd at $15.6M. Fielding stats had Jeter as a negative last year but much better than in previous years. In 2007 values Hardy beat out all the AL SS's as well coming in at $18.5M with Bartlett and Guillen beating out Jeter. Young is pretty terrible defensively and isn't as good a hitter as Jeter so he doesn't really come into play. Hardy most likely would be the best SS in the AL if he were traded there, hard to say how much the league factor would hurt his hitting though.
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