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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    LD% just doesn't show that great a correlation year to year in my experience, I've always felt it was as luck based as BABIP. I guess I've never seen anyone prove that LD% is a better correlation than just using BABIP by itself was my point more than anything. They both seem to share the exact same flaws. That by itself is fine but I haven't seen good proof that using LD% instead of BABIP somehow improves predictive accuracy.
  2. Ennder
    Kinsler was well below average defensively last year though. Mauer would have been viable for sure.
  3. Ennder
    I've never really bought the LD+12% thing myself, it seems to just focus the flaws of BABIP even more. BABIP doesn't handle things like doubles off the wall or singles created with speed or the fact that FB and GB give different expected BABIP values in general. It probably shows a decent year to year correlation but not sure it really shows what is happening.
  4. Ennder
    I'm fine with Pedroia. When you add defense and position into the mix he was as good as any of the other choices and certainly better than KRod or Morneau.
  5. Ennder
    In the rumors thread we were thinking something like 3 years at $14M each so that is pretty much in line with expectations given the extra year. Seems like a good signing by them, much better than say the Soriano and Zambrano deals.
  6. Ennder
    Jason Kendall at 1B is less valuable than he is at C, I don't know how that doesn't make sense. Instead of moving Hardy to 3B we could probably sign an average 3B who would be about as productive as he was, for that same money we couldn't hope to find a SS to replace him. His value has most certainly gone down with a move. All of that to make room for a SS that might never be better than Adam Everett with worse defense. I just don't think it makes much sense. If we decide to go with Escobar in say 2010 then the option that makes the most sense is to trade Hardy for value and sign a 3B instead of moving him.
  7. Ennder
    So players who did less than Chipper in more games are somehow more valuable? Players who stunk for all but the last month of the season and a hot Sept are somehow more valuable tahn Utley. Tom's votes are a big fat sad joke and shows everything that is wrong with how the awards are handled. The sad thing is the guy from the nationals who left Braun and Howard completely off his card probably was the closest to being 'right' and the media is getting on his back for not sticking to group think.
  8. Ennder
    Ground ball vs fly ball has pretty significant BABIP differences, pull vs spray really doesn't usually. The speed of the player can matter a good bit as well which obviously is advantage Braun. BABIP has flaws of course but Braun's BABIP that year really weren't sustainable. I think Fielder is more likely to approach his 2007 numbers again than Braun. Maybe with a little more OBP but a little less SLG for Fielder for the same overall value.
  9. Ennder
    I don't think $5.5M is the proper FA win value, MGL and Tango have it at $4.8M and those two numbers are too far apart. I also don't see how anyone can assume a pitchers 26-28 year seasons are going to represent his 29-34 year old seasons very well. I'd expect him to lose at least 5% value per year over that stretch with very little chance at improvement and a LOT of risk for large regression in IP is not ERA. All in all I think you are looking at something like 4.5 wins per year at $5M tops which is $22.5M a year. Someone is going to overpay him.
  10. Ennder
    It certainly seems to me that Melvin was just joking, he has a pretty dry sense of humor.
  11. Ennder
    Now if Howard wins the MVP I'll explode~.
  12. Ennder
    I hope none of our players play in it, especially the pitchers. There is a very big difference between warm up games in spring training and maximum effort pitches in game situations in the WBC.
  13. Ennder
    The increased income from endorsements etc would easily make up any difference in taxes.
  14. Ennder
    I probably should have linked to this instead... http://www.mlbtraderumors...8/11/gm-trade-histor.html Which is the comments page for the story including the link to the excel file.
  15. Ennder
    If anyone is interested here is a complete list of trades Doug Melvin has pulled off as a GM. There is no commentary on the trades or anything, just a flat list in excel. Excel file: Doug Melvin trade history
  16. Ennder
    I'd love to sign Abreu 2-3 years ago. His offense is slipping and his defense is pretty terrible, I doubt he earns what he gets paid even if he does fit our needs pretty well.
  17. Ennder
    I personally doubt Escobar is a top 3 prospect, I know the power 50 has him #2 but I just feel it is a miss. He is a backup in the majors not a starter.
  18. Ennder
    His career AVG is now .244 so I think expecting .260-.270 is a stretch. he has some value for sure and I think it is pretty silly they gave him away. When the Sox regress to the mean next year and win like 75 games we can all laugh about it I guess.
  19. Ennder
    You obviously have an opinion about Sheets and you are trying to force your opinion on the Brewers management pretty much, that is the entire problem with your argument. Not giving an offer to Sheets yet pretty much is meaningless. It doesn't mean they think he stinks, it doesn't mean they don't want him back, it just means their focus is somewhere else. They want Sabathia more than Sheets. Personally I don't offer a longterm contract to a 30 year old pitcher if I can avoid it no matter what add in some health concerns and I don't do it. The only pitchers in baseball I'd offer a 5+ year deal to right now are Webb and Santana, the rest of them arent' good enough or are too big an bigger injury risk. I don't want Sabathia back either but I know I'm in the minority. I think the odds of Sabathia staying healthy even the next 3 years are extremely low given how much he was abused the last 2 years.
  20. Ennder
    They are higher leverage though. You would be smarter to use your best RP in the 9th than the 7th if the situations were 100% the same. The rest of what you said I completely agree with. You want your best RP in the game at the most important parts of the game and that is not always the 9th inning.
  21. Ennder
    Gregg was pretty decent before the injuries so pretty hard to know what to expect out of him, just pointing at blown saves doesn't tell the whole picture at all. It is obviously a downgrade from Wood of 08 though.
  22. Ennder
    According to baseballreference there are 22 pitchers that fit the criteria of IP > 1428 from 2001-2008. I don't pay for the web site so I can't see who they actually are.
  23. Ennder
    High strike out heavy GB pitchers succeed everywhere, he has the perfect skillset as long as he can get his BB down to his career rate again.
  24. Ennder
    I see no compelling reason to trade Fielder until next year but if they do it then oh well. I don't want him signing with the Brewers long term though, he really does need to DH.
  25. Ennder
    Because it isn't unrealistic.
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