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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Good park factors at least attempt to neutralize things so the home teams players don't matter. I don't think any good park factors are out for 2008 yet though which is why I used ESPN's. Miller park is somewhere near neutral overall though, sometimes they come out with it as a slight pitcher park and sometimes as a slight hitter park.
  2. Ennder
    Are the last 4 years more indicative of being injury prone than the previous 4 years though or are they just the most recent years? Is a pitcher who was healthy for 5 years and then missed all of 2008 more injury prone than one who missed a full season 6 years ago and has been healthy the last 5?
  3. Ennder
    Not really, if we have an 87-88 win talent team we'll be right in the thick of the wild card, the actual W-L record for every team can vary at least 3-4 wins any given season so a true talent anywhere from like 85 wins to 93 wins will put you in the hunt most seasons. That is also assuming we don't bring in any new players other than a 1 to 2 win pitcher. Believe it or not the Brewers don't HAVE to sign Sabathia to have a shot at the playoffs next year and just signing Sabathia doesn't mean we are in. He is worth roughly 5 wins assuming he stays healthy and that can be replaced elsewhere.
  4. Ennder
    I disagree, /shrug. Gallardo can replace half a year of Sabathia and improvement out of Parra makes up part of the loss of Sheets. Obviously we'd have to bring in someone else or have Capuano come back strong or something for the last spot but I think people overvalue individual players in general. Sheets and Sabathia were roughly 10 wins over replacement on the year leaving us as an 80 win team without them. Assume Gallardo and an improved Parra make up 4 of those and we are at 84 wins. Find a decent but not great pitcher worth 1 or 2 wins and we are at 86. The offense improves a little as I suggested and we are 87-88 wins. Still in the wild card hunt.
  5. Ennder
    I think yelling at players probably has a different effect on each one and some are positive and some are negative. I know in the normal work force I just lose respect for a boss that feels he has to yell at the employees to get his point across. I find it shows a lack of leadership ability personally that you have to resort to the lowest common denominator by default. Now if a problem escalates to the point where nothing else is working I can understand trying that route but personally I will work harder for you if you just come and talk to me than if you yell at me.
  6. Ennder
    The same can be said about Dempster this yaer though, do you really believe he'll be an ace next year? A pitcher can change his approach, grow up etc but the turnaround that Lester had this year is just too big. I'm not a believer he can repeat it next year. I think his career stats right now are more likely than a repeat of last year.
  7. Ennder
    I think we are competitive next year even if Sabathia walks. I have a lot of faith in Gallardo replacing Sheets or Sabathia and not losing a ton of ground. I think our offense underproduced next year. We were like 13th in runs scored and 8th in pitching last year and it wouldn't surprise me a ton to see us something like 8th in runs scored and 10th in pitching or something similar even with Sheets/Sabathia walking. Signing Sabathia helps us a lot for next year of course and I go from thinking we are a competitive team for the wild card to maybe even being favorites for it but I don't see 2009 as a rebuilding year if we can't land him or anything. Sabathia had an amazing run for the Brewers but it isn't like he'll repeat that next year. He'll likely be something like Sheets was for us this year.
  8. Ennder
    I think the Santana deal last year pretty clearly set the expected value for Sabathia this year. Santana got around $23M a year and Sabathia expects right around the same I'm sure and if anything slightly less per year. An offer for Sabathia at $25M per year is very reasonable. The difference of course is 6 years vs 4 years but there is no saying that the Brewers won't go to 5 years or 5 years+ option year or something like that. The per year offer is very competitive with expectations though.
  9. Ennder
    Miller park played as a pitchers park in 2008 but a hitters park in 2007 according to ESPN's factors. Generally it ends up right around average though, every system rates it a little differently.
  10. Ennder
    Miller park played as a pitchers park in 2008 but a hitters park in 2007 according to ESPN's factors. Generally it ends up right around average though, every system rates it a little differently.
  11. Ennder
    Miller park played as a pitchers park in 2008 but a hitters park in 2007 according to ESPN's factors. Generally it ends up right around average though, every system rates it a little differently.
  12. Ennder
    Well we gave Lee an offer for what he is worth. The Astros just gave him an offer that they'll regret.
  13. Ennder
    Bradley apparently is a type B free agent so he might not be the worst guy to go with if we end up trading Hart or not picking up Cameron's option.
  14. Ennder
    Bradley apparently is a type B free agent so he might not be the worst guy to go with if we end up trading Hart or not picking up Cameron's option.
  15. Ennder
    Bradley apparently is a type B free agent so he might not be the worst guy to go with if we end up trading Hart or not picking up Cameron's option.
  16. Ennder
    Fuentes lost his job because he got hurt, that really should have absolutely nothing to do with any decisions made about him. If Macha is smart enough to use a closer in high leverage situations that are not save situations then a shut down closer would be worth $10M a year. I'm not sure he is that type of guy though so I'd rather not spend it.
  17. Ennder
    Fuentes lost his job because he got hurt, that really should have absolutely nothing to do with any decisions made about him. If Macha is smart enough to use a closer in high leverage situations that are not save situations then a shut down closer would be worth $10M a year. I'm not sure he is that type of guy though so I'd rather not spend it.
  18. Ennder
    Fuentes lost his job because he got hurt, that really should have absolutely nothing to do with any decisions made about him. If Macha is smart enough to use a closer in high leverage situations that are not save situations then a shut down closer would be worth $10M a year. I'm not sure he is that type of guy though so I'd rather not spend it.
  19. Ennder
    I don't know what to think about Lester. His stats this year are so far from his stats in previous years or in the minors that it is just hard to judge. Was it just a prolonged hot streak like say Capuano had the one year or was it him changing his approach successfully. I could totally see him going Carmona on the league and being a 4.50+ ERA guy next year.
  20. Ennder
    Some team is going to break the bank to trade for Peavy and then be disappointed in him outside of Petco and with injury problems. I sure hope it isn't the Brewers. Always be careful with NL West pitchers. They play half their games in pitchers parks and the only real tough offense they ever face within the division is Colorado when in Coors.
  21. Ennder
    I'm not sure I'd do it either to be honest. Cain has been abused pretty badly at a young age. He has a career ERA of 4.17 on the road and that is against a weak hitting division. He gives up more BB's than I'd like and is a pretty heavy flyball pitcher which means he walks a pretty fine line between success and mediocrity. My money would be on a 4.20-4.70 ERA for Cain as a Brewer which is ok but not sure that is worth Hardy. We also dont' have a viable backup at SS so we'd be stuck with Escobar or Hall playing full time and I think both would be a disaster.
  22. Ennder
    Pretty sure we have to offer him arbitration to get the draft picks. The best thing that could possibly happen is he accepts arbitration and we get him for 1 year relatively cheaply and he most likely stays a type A free agent. Sheets was a pretty big bargain last year and I can't imagine his price would go up all that much via arbitration. I highly doubt he accepts it though.
  23. Ennder
    Santana gets like $23M per year, it is just for 6 years instead of 4. It is pretty comperable and Santana has a better overall history of success than Sabathia does.
  24. Ennder
    Weeks for DeJesus might make sense, Weeks for Teahen just hurts the team. Now Hall for Teahen might work as suggested in the trade proposal forum. (added link --1992)
  25. Ennder
    Yeah Jacobs was one of the worst regulars in the majors last year so hard to say the trade is lopsided.
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