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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    He rates as 20 runs below average in LF which is really really hard to do, that is Manny territory. He has given back a large portion of his offense on defense so no way he has been worth that contract. I like Lee a lot but I'm very glad we didn't re-sign him.
  2. Ennder
    Hopefully this is the start of a Zambrano cold streak. He has had a lot of problems putting up 3 solid months in a row in his career so maybe he is headed for a crappy 2 months to finish it off.
  3. Ennder
    Not even close. The Cubs as a team have hit .271/.357/.447. The Brewers have have only Fielder who gets on at a better clip then .357 They've scored 80 runs more than the Brewers for a reason. You can't look at it like this though because you are ignoring what actually happened and keying in on the stats behind what happened. The Cubs W1 is 11.7 higher than the Brewers but the reality is only 5 extra wins. So yeah while they scored 80 more runs than us on the year it hasn't translated into the amount of wins you would have expected. But yeah my numbers were off anyway, there is no way the difference in defense was 10 games and our defense hasn't been as bad as last year. In my head I was thinking what I said meant a swing of 5 games instead of 10. Last year the difference statistically was about 50 runs which meant roughly 100 runs after you swap them which is roughly 9-10 wins. This year the difference is more like 20 runs which is 40 runs after you swap them and about 4 wins. If you kept everything else that happened this year the same and just swapped the team defense most likely the Cubs would have about 2 more losses and the Brewers would have about 2 more wins, a swing of 4 games.
  4. Ennder
    You aren't going to be able to show anything useful from one season of data based on two teams. The sample is going to be too small to be really meaningful.
  5. Ennder
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html That site says the Cubs winning increases our chances the most so I'll cheer for the Cubs today.
  6. Ennder
    I don't think Eveland was going to get his life together as a Brewer, it took a change to get his act together. Having said that the numbers he has put up in a pitchers park with one of the best defenses in baseball behind him do not mirror what he would have probably done as a Brewer.
  7. Ennder
    Income isn't very useful without looking at cost of living at the same time.
  8. Ennder
    yeah but would that be due to improved defense or because our new lineup scores .75 more runs a game than the old lineup? I'm talking just swap the overall defense. I think if you swapped our two defenses we'd be the team that was 5 up and not the Cubs. That is the biggest difference between the two teams.
  9. Ennder
    I think at least one Buck would be in there, not sure which one though, maybe Bogut or Redd.
  10. Ennder
    Defense is pretty much underrated at every position. There is a reason that Oakland has the best defensive metrics in baseball, that is where the value is in the market right now. Swap the Cubs and Brewers defensively and we'd be 5 games up in the division instead of them.
  11. Ennder
    Joe Madden is managing a heavy underdog team and is downplaying things as much as he can. I disagree with him, wanting it more might help a little but not enough to suddenly turn things from a loss to a win in comparison to overall talent.
  12. Ennder
    I'm sure you meant anti-Jets fan!
  13. Ennder
    Sheets has pitched almost the same over the last month as he has the rest of the year. The last 5 starts that people have freaked out about shows 8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and only 1 HR, compared to a season rate of 7.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. The only real difference is a couple extra walks, a couple extra Ks and a large boost in BABIP that is most likely just random.
  14. Ennder
    I dunno if I agree that the Cubs are more talented, if it is true it is still relatively close. If Harden goes down(I assume he will) I like our chances for sure in a 7 game series though, I do not fear a matchup against the Cubs anymore than any other matchup in the playoffs unless Harden stays healthy. Just getting to the playoffs is the key so for my money the cubs sweeping is the better option.
  15. Ennder
    I think the Cubs sweeping helps our chances the most. I'm just going to stay neutral most likely though generally once I actually start watching the games I end up cheering against the Cubs just out of habit.
  16. Ennder
    It isn't fuzzy math it is just math. They are either giving him 2 years at $16M or 3 years at $15M depending on whether they trigger the extension or not and if he blows his arm out in the next 2 years they give him $32M for nothing at all. The next 2 years don't matter at all as they had him under contract very cheaply for those two years already. I don't think it is a bad deal per se, I think they will regret it because I don't have a lot of faith in Haren 3 years from now.
  17. Ennder
    Well I'd start Hall vs lefties and Branyan vs righties myself, but I just dont' see Branyan to Counsell as some huge drop in win probability. Certainly nothing like Fielder to Rivera.
  18. Ennder
    No it's not. It's a 2 year $25.5M extension with a $15.5M club option. No it is 2 year $32M. They would have paid him a little over $12M for 2 years, now they are paying him just under $45M for 4 years. That is a 2 year, $32M extension. I'm not saying it is a bad deal for them, I just think they'll regret it because I don't think he is going to stay an ace level pitcher and it will surprise me more if he stays healthy than if he has some problems in the next 4 years given his work loads in oakland.
  19. Ennder
    While he may have thrown too many innings early in his career I don't see how they're paying him like a #1 or #2 starter and I don't see how he's a solid #3 with only #2 potential. Over the next four years he'll be making $41.25 million and they'll have a $15.5 million club option. So basically Jeff Suppan money, I don't see how that is being paid like an ace. As far as his peripherals go, he's pitched 599.1 innings the past two + years and 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.65 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. His FIPs have been solid over the past two + years as well at 4.12, 3.70 and 2.78. I think this is a fantastic deal for the Diamondbacks. They already had him signed for 2 years though. This is a 2 year $32M contract extension with the final 2 years being the only ones that decide whether the deal is good or bad. I think they'll regret it.
  20. Ennder
    I'm not sure that counsell shoudl be starting but I bet the difference in SLG compared to defense means very little in the Brewers win percentages. Counsell is probabaly about the same as the other crappy 3B we have.
  21. Ennder
    They will regret this almost for sure, he has thrown way too many innings way too early adn his peripherals suggest solid #3 with maybe #2 upside and his pay is fully aimed at #1/#2 quality.
  22. Ennder
    Brauns fielding metrics were historically bad last year and not just the errors, his range statistics were horrible as well. I think Gamel is our future 1B most likely. He might get a year or even two in the majors where he can butcher the 3B position but I still don't think we will re-sign Fielder and now that LaPorta is gone it seems like Gamel is the natural replacement.
  23. Ennder
    In the first 5 starts of the year Sheets went 33 IP, 11 BB, 26 K, 2 HR, pretty similar numbers. The big difference is he is giving up a bunch of hits right now which is so random over a 5 start period that you are going to get all kinds of goofy stats out of it. Pitching is erratic in the first place but H, ERA and WHIP are so erratic they are borderline useless over a 5 game sample. Even if you really believe he is pitching differently I'd say it is much more likely a tired arm from not pitching full seasons the last couple rather than some obscure psychological problem involving CC Sabathia being on the team.
  24. Ennder
    You absolutely have to cherry pick stats when deciding whether to play or bench someone. What Weeks did in April or May has very little to do with whether he should be playing today or not. You look at what he has done over a 3 year period or so and what he has done recently pretty much when deciding something like this. Same thing with the Fielder is hitting like a rookie again thread. What Fielder did in April and May is over and done with, they shouldn't change your expectations for August and September when his June/July stats were right in line with expectations. I would sit Weeks against tough righties and play him the rest of the time, should get a .750-.800 OPS out of him by protecting him against those tough righties from this point on. The fact he was miserable in April really has nothing to do with it.
  25. Ennder
    A .755 OPS is about what expectations should have been going into this year and that is what I was talking about. He wouldn't be benched over a .755 OPS and that is what he has put up since mid May. I agree that his baserunning and fielding are painful and if they want to bench him over that then I'm fine with it. I was just as mad as anyone else when he got doubled up at 1st base because he was jogging back instead of running.
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