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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team. Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year) Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539) Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618) JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463) Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year) Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433) Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425) Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year) I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.
  2. Ennder
    I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team. Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year) Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539) Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618) JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463) Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year) Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433) Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425) Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year) I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.
  3. Ennder
    These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.
  4. Ennder
    These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.
  5. Ennder
    These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.
  6. Ennder
    These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.
  7. Ennder
    I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.
  8. Ennder
    I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.
  9. Ennder
    I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.
  10. Ennder
    I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.
  11. Ennder
    And now for the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9. So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.
  12. Ennder
    And now for the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9. So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.
  13. Ennder
    And now for the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9. So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.
  14. Ennder
    And now for the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9. So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.
  15. Ennder
    Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.
  16. Ennder
    Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.
  17. Ennder
    Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.
  18. Ennder
    Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.
  19. Ennder
    Red Sox signed Sean Casey so we can't get him either! heh.
  20. Ennder
    Not sure you can say Wright's 1.034 OPS in Sept was cooling off.
  21. Ennder
    I do to a degree, I'm not incredibly high on the Rockies. I think the team to beat in the west this year is going to be the Dodgers. That is a nice deep pitching staff and a very deep roster that can withstand injuries.
  22. Ennder
    I know I'm in the minority, but I've always felt that outfield defense was a bit overrated. I can't imagine there being 3 specific losses this season that become wins because Cameron makes a play after being brought in or moved as a defensive switch that wouldn't have been made by the player he replaced. Hall was statistically the worst CF in baseball last year according to many systems, Braun was the worst per inning at 3B. The series of defensive moves that happen because of the Cameron signing should be in the order of 30 runs saved which is 3 wins. That might seem high but it is actually a conservative estimate. Last year Hall was in the order of 5-10 runs below average. Braun was round 30 below average and Cameron was 5-10 or so above average. So last year he would have saved the team roughly 40 runs with the moves assuming Braun and Hall were league average. If you assume they combine for -10 runs you come up with 30 runs saved. If Cameron goes back to being a great fielder like in 2006 instead of just a good one like 2007 or if Braun or Hall are average or above average at their positions it could be more than 30 runs saved.
  23. Ennder
    Yep, they will definitely be a better team, I don't see a way to argue that. The lineup almost has to be better just because it was so bad last year and Haren most certainly improves the rotation. I just don't think the pythagorean record was a fluke for them. Kind of like the White sox after their world series win. I'm not a slave to PR or anything, some teams most certainly deserve to outperform it. I just don't think the Diamondbacks are one of them to an extreme extent. They probably deserved to out perform it by a small amount because of how strong the bullpen was but I still see them as a .500ish team going into the year and Haren alone doesn't turn that into a playoff team.
  24. Ennder
    I think the talent of their team was a below .500 team, I figured it was really obvious what I thought by the statement as obviously they weren't actually under .500. The Diamondbacks were not a good team last year, they were a team that lucked into the playoffs. They will be better this year with the young players gaining another year of experience and the Haren trade but I still think they will have problems competing with the better teams in that division. As for the mstical quality when it all comes together, the vast majority of teams that have said magical season regress to expectations the next year. I just think the Diamondbacks are another one of them. They have a well below average offense and two good SP since I have no faith in RJ. Their bullpen overproduced their peripherals last year and I just don't think the team can repeat.
  25. Ennder
    Well it really depends on how things play out. If the team has another late season collapse I'd imagine he is gone. If the team isn't over .500 barring a ton of injuries I'd say he is gone. But if the team wins like 85 games and the Cubs or Reds win 87 to take the division I'm not so sure Yost is gone.
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