Ennder

ZiPs released its projection disk for Diamond Mind Baseball. People ran chunks of simulations and the Brewers came out in 2nd with a 25% or so rate of winning the division. Cubs was like 65%. Consensus that I've seen is Cubs in 1st, Brewers in 2nd.

Keep in mind that defensive metrics are somewhat shaky over a single season and even more so over whatever small amount Gross played last season. I really do not think he's a better defensive OF than Hart is. I also agree with Melvin that the other options out there that were left handed weren't worth it. Lofton can't play CF anymore and his peripherals took a big hit last year. Blalock can't hit outside of that home park or against lefties etc. I haven't heard one good left handed option brought up that would have been better than Cameron overall for the team, the closest was Teahen but I think his 2006 power surge was just a fluke and he isn't a good defensive player either.

Articles like that are always funny. Cubs breezed past us by taking the division with 2 days left in the season and it basically came down to them winning the H2H matchup on a 3 run shot by Aramis.

Or you could just be pulling out random samples of stats and judging him by that. I'd say his career ERA is probably the best indicator of his talent. As I pointed out in another thread before he was hurt last year he had sub 4 ERA and peripherals and August of 2006 he was simply outstanding. If you just grab cutoffs and make sure they include his worst months of course they'll look bad.

I think the rotation will be Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Capuano and Villanueva will be in the bullpen. I'd personally like to see Villanueva get his shot in the rotation. Everything about Bush's stats screams he'd be terrible in the bullpen but if the team thinks he can adjust to it he probably makes the most sense to make the move.

Vargas has some nice stuff if he could just stop nibbling so much, that can be said about a lot of guys. Tony Gwynn Jr's dad was pretty good. Johnny Estrada is adequate when healthy or at least he was the two years he was fully healthy.

Gord Ash pointed out that Verducci missed 12 IP in the playoffs in 2006 so Gallardo actually only increased 21 innings last year.

I never know what to think about stats like this but everyone seems to say Kendall is a good game caller, including his ex teammates so hopefully it ends up true.

Yes, the Brewers pitching was well above average last year. The Brewers had the 3rd best FIP in the NL and roughly the 3rd worst defense in the NL. Swap the Cubs and Brewers defense and the Brewers are one of the better RA in the league and the Cubs are average in it. As for the reliability of defensive metrics, yes they are less reliable than offensive. That doesn't mean you just throw them out. When every single system out there and scouting and personal observation all say something you know it is at least partially true. The degree of just how bad it was is questionable but the Brewers had a terrible defensive team last year and nobody except apparently you disagrees with that. Even Yost comes out and admits it.

I'm referring to the upside stat because the numbers you pulled out are their upside ranking and they weren't even presented as an actual prospect list. That is why I was so confused by your statements. So there is no way for you to even begin to judge how good those rankings are until these guys hit free agency and you have to keep in mind these are not park adjusted and do include defense. Tulo was a below average hitter outside of Coors last year and Braun's defense was bad enough it offset a huge portion of his offense. This is also a newer part of their system so it is like looking at 'new technology'. The point is the system itself was not meant to try to predict which rookies would have the best 2007, if you wanted to know that you'd have to look at individual projections.

To use the system devised by baseball HQ for their qERA stat I'll look at his PQS pitching logs. The nice thing about the system is it doesn't dwell on ER's or H's and is more about the things a pitcher does control. A score of 5 is a dominant start, a 4 is very good, a 2 or 3 is ok, a 1 is bad, a 0 is terrible. second half of 2006 - 0,3,2,3,4,4,5,3,4,5,3,2,2,1,0 He was pretty good until the very end of the 2nd half and he tired out and had a bad run. First half of 2007 - 4,4,4,4,3,0,5,0,1,0,5,5,0,0,1 There is the inconsistency you are talking about. That first 0 is a game he left with an injury after 3 innings. The 0 after the two 5's is the game he got hurt in. Overall his first half had two 0's because of injuries, a 0 and a 1 after the injury. three dominant starts, 4 very good starts and 1 decent start. Second half of 2007 - 0,5,5,4,3,2,0,3,3,3 He really didn't pitch that poorly in the 2nd half, just gave up more HR's than you'd expect but overall he had a bunch of ok games. The system itself gives him a qERA of 5.07 last year which is right in line with what actually happened. He had a lot of 0's but most of them were centered around the injury so for my money I'm willing to bet it had something to do with it.

My understanding is fine. But hey, you argue that it isn't supposed to predict 2007 at all, and in the next sentence say that PECOTA projected them as impact players for 2007. But hey, I guess almost all those players rated as higher than Tulo will be "impact players" sometime during their careers. I wonder what percentage of them will make major league rosters. No I said the upside stat is not supposed to be predicting 2007, their OPS projection etc were pretty much spot on. Those stats are SUPPOSED to predict 2007. The upside stat is exactly what it sounds like, the players upside. I would expect only a small percentage of players to actually reach that number. It is just a very obscure stat for you to be pulling out and saying the system is bad because of.

keep in mind that the defense is part of what controls how deep into a game a pitcher gets as well. When you are having a lot of 4 out innings it is reducing the number of innings you actually do pitch. I'm going to guess that most of the problems came the 3rd time through the order and having to face 1 or 2 extra batters most games because of the defense makes that 3rd time happen earlier than it should have on average.

"Gamel is a horrible defender who made 53 errors last year, followed by 10 more in 33 Hawaiian Winter League contests. It's frustrating to scouts, as he has the instincts and athleticism to play the position, but at times it almost seems that he has a case of the yips concerning his glove work" Like JoeHova said, those are a best case type projection that I listed, one where he becomes at least adequate with the glove. As for Salome this is what they said about his defense... " He's a poor defender who needs to dramatically improve his receiving skills and the accuracy of his throws, which are thrown off by poor mechanics."

"Gamel is a horrible defender who made 53 errors last year, followed by 10 more in 33 Hawaiian Winter League contests. It's frustrating to scouts, as he has the instincts and athleticism to play the position, but at times it almost seems that he has a case of the yips concerning his glove work" Like JoeHova said, those are a best case type projection that I listed, one where he becomes at least adequate with the glove. As for Salome this is what they said about his defense... " He's a poor defender who needs to dramatically improve his receiving skills and the accuracy of his throws, which are thrown off by poor mechanics."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7105 Here are the rankings with the perfect world projection comments. Five-Star Prospects 1. Matt LaPorta, lf - LaPorta's entire value comes from his bat, but he has the potential to be a classic No. 3 or No. 4 hitter for a first-division team. 2. Manny Parra, lhp - An above-average starting pitcher, possibly as good as a No. 2 type Four-Star Prospects 3. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp - If Jeffress had a cleaner background, he'd rank No. 1 on this list. His arm is that special. Three-Star Prospects 4. Cole Gillespie, of - One talent evaluator referred to him as "a right-handed Rusty Greer 5. Angel Salome, c - A hit-first, field-later big league catcher 6. Alcides Escobar, ss - An outstanding defensive shortstop, but the kind who hits .280 while somehow managing to keep his OPS below .700. 7. Mat Gamel, 3b - A solid everyday big league third baseman. 8. Caleb Gindl, of - An everyday corner outfielder who makes up for middling power with outstanding on-base skills 9. Luis Pena, rhp - A good set-up man. 10. Robert Bryson, rhp - Bryson's ceiling is considerable, but he's also far from it. 11. Brent Brewer, ss - Brewer is an all-or-nothing type of prospect who will either look like a star within the next couple of years or be off the radar Edit: Title clarification - Toby

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7105 Here are the rankings with the perfect world projection comments. Five-Star Prospects 1. Matt LaPorta, lf - LaPorta's entire value comes from his bat, but he has the potential to be a classic No. 3 or No. 4 hitter for a first-division team. 2. Manny Parra, lhp - An above-average starting pitcher, possibly as good as a No. 2 type Four-Star Prospects 3. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp - If Jeffress had a cleaner background, he'd rank No. 1 on this list. His arm is that special. Three-Star Prospects 4. Cole Gillespie, of - One talent evaluator referred to him as "a right-handed Rusty Greer 5. Angel Salome, c - A hit-first, field-later big league catcher 6. Alcides Escobar, ss - An outstanding defensive shortstop, but the kind who hits .280 while somehow managing to keep his OPS below .700. 7. Mat Gamel, 3b - A solid everyday big league third baseman. 8. Caleb Gindl, of - An everyday corner outfielder who makes up for middling power with outstanding on-base skills 9. Luis Pena, rhp - A good set-up man. 10. Robert Bryson, rhp - Bryson's ceiling is considerable, but he's also far from it. 11. Brent Brewer, ss - Brewer is an all-or-nothing type of prospect who will either look like a star within the next couple of years or be off the radar Edit: Title clarification - Toby

I think it hurts marginal pitchers more than good pitchers is the key. A guy like Capuano puts a lot of guys on base and gives up a good number of extra base hits. That is the kind of skilset that will get hurt quite a bit by extra singles here and there. Someone like Sheets who doesn't let very many guys on isn't hurt nearly as much by fluctuations. That is part of why ace type pitchers have relatively stable ERA's year to year and 2nd and 3rd tier starters are all over the place. The more runners you put on the more chances to get hurt or helped by 'bad luck or variance' or whatever you want to call it.

I'd probably go Utley as well, great hitter at the weakest (fulltime) position and a good fielder.

Capuano did get hurt by the bullpen last year for sure, 16 of the 25 runners inherited against him were let in. Part of the problem with that is he left a lot of games early so he got some pretty shaky RP's coming in after him.

It was mostly August... and July... and June. And holy small sample size - month-by-month? I'm saying that if you look at his 1.5 season trends here, he had one 1.5 season stretch (2005-1st half of 2006) where he was pretty darn good and now one 1.5 season stretch (2nd half of 2006 - present) which was Obermueller-esque. Actually it wasn't July as I said his peripherals were exactly what was expected but the ERA was just high (a very shaky stat to judge a pitcher on over a small sample). It was one start in June (the start he left with an injury mind you) and August that made his stats worse than 2006. My point is even within that 1.5 year sample you gave he was very good for big stretches of it. Does that really point to a pitcher that had problems ever since the middle of 2006 like you suggest? I don't think it does at all. As for Pete, your question doesn't matter for Capuano and to be honest BIS now designates liners seperately anyway. If everything about Capuano has remained the same between 2005 and 2007 and the only thing that has changed is his singles rate that pretty clearly shows that he wasn't just being hit harder. Unless you really think they hit him harder but it didnt' show up at all in GB% or ISO (extra base hits against). They hit him a ton harder but it all happened to be singles? I don't think so. The Brewers defense is bad according to plus/minus, according to DER, according to PMR, according to OOZ and PIZ, according to MGL, and according to anyone who watched a big chunk of Brewer games last year. I didn't realize there was still someone out there that didn't think our defense was bad last year.

Bush should be better than he is but he has shown a career long problem with runners on base at this point which would seem to indicate he has problems pitching from the stretch. If he can ever get himself to league average in LOB% he'll have a good year and even with a bad LOB% he has had decent results. I however think Capuano should be the #5. The first half of 2006 and before he got hurt in 2007 showed some upside to Capuano that he could turn into a good pitcher instead of a just decent one if he can just keep the BB's down.

It is mostly based on the fact thatt the only thing that has changed in his skillset between 2005 and 2007 was the number of singles he gave up. K rate, BB rate, GB%, ISO, HR/9 etc all stayed the same, the number of singles he gave up went up and nothing else. Couple that with the fact the Brewers had the 3rd worst defense in the NL statistically last year and it seems like a pretty safe assumption to make. 2006 looked like the year he really stepped up because his BB rate went way down but now it just sort of looks like an outlier. 2005 and 2007 are almost statistical mirror images other than BABIP, in fact 2007 is probably slightly better than 2005.

They remember a few collapses at the start of the year and just assume it was always so. The funny thing is most of those collapses were directly related to Yost leaving him out there too long or bad defensive plays but when I pointed it out it apparently was because I had him on a fantasy baseball team or something (he wasn't on my main team last year and had him in all of 1 league that was a throwaway league).

Playing the sample size game is really tricky. So I'm not sure I buy into this. In July of 06 he pretty much just had a big spike in HR's for one month. In August of 2006 he was pretty darn dominant, 28 K, 3 BB, 23 H in 31 IP, 2.32 ERA. In April of 2007 he had a line of 28 IP, 22 H, 21 K, 13 BB, 3.21 ERA which is not that bad at all. In May he again had a decent line just with a few extra singles. June was two ugly starts and time on the DL. July was just normal capuano but with a slightly elevated ERA but the same peripherals. August his stats did stink including a whipping 10 HR's allowed in just 30 IP. Then again in September he looked pretty darn good in his final 16 IP. Can you really look at this month to month and make a blanket statement that he has stunk since mid 2006? I don't think that is really a fair thing to say at all. In fact it was mostly August that killed his season last year. In fact before the game he got hurt in and went on the DL he was sitting at a 3.80 ERA last year with better peripherals than his career rates and that was 1/3 of the way into the season.