Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Ennder

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,251

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Thank you. Very interesting stuff. I strongly disagree with him that fielding is the last bastion though. Pitch f/x data is going to be every bit as important over the next 10 years. It lets you break the game down at the pitch level instead of the AB level and that is going to make a huge difference and opens a whole new level of data for sabermetrics to work off of.
  2. Ennder
    Thank you. Very interesting stuff. I strongly disagree with him that fielding is the last bastion though. Pitch f/x data is going to be every bit as important over the next 10 years. It lets you break the game down at the pitch level instead of the AB level and that is going to make a huge difference and opens a whole new level of data for sabermetrics to work off of.
  3. Ennder
    Do you think they should throw the book at Bud too? I mean it seems like the writing is on the wall that he looked the other way even for those who gave him a break in the past on the subject.
  4. Ennder
    I'd enjoy a recap.
  5. Ennder
    I'd enjoy a recap.
  6. Ennder
    oh yeah, I don't blame the club at all. I just think Hardy is underrated by fans. He should have been in AAA when he struggled so much his rookie year. He has displayed 20 HR+ power ever since yet everyone seems to think it is a fluke he hit 20+ HR's last year. 2nd half of 2005 - 8 HR in 208 PA or 1 per 26 PA 2006 - 5 HR in 139 PA or 1 per 27.8 PA 2007 - 26 HR in 638 PA or 1 per 24.5 PA. Last year was not some huge power spike for him. If he had hit at 1 per 27 PA he still would have hit 24 HR last year. Hardy could be a .280 AVG, 25 HR SS with above average defense and that has a lot of value to it. He also showed better patience in the minors so if he can get the BB's up and get that OBP up around .350 to go with that he would be extremely valuable.
  7. Ennder
    I sure hope this doesn't cause too much bad blood. I think Hardy is an underrated player because of his hip/back problems last year in June/July. Not only did they completely offset that hot April/May but I think they killed his defensive stats as well.
  8. Ennder
    I think the only trade that might not have happened because of the linebrink deal was for a 3B. We might have ended up with Blalock, Crede or Rolen had we not done the linebrink deal. Personally I think the team is better for not making those trades so I'm ok with it.
  9. Ennder
    Yes but I don't see him playing full time so that would be in like 15 games of PA's or like 60 or so. I just don't see them earning a full time job in that small amount of time.
  10. Ennder
    While I disagree with your opinion of Garrison you do need to mention the two draft picks we got as well which if used properly will net players just as good as Garrison and Inman. Linebrink isn't the guy I wanted last year but I still see the deal as pretty even right now. Whether it is even or not later depends on who we pick and how everyone turns out. Inman is listed as a #5 as a B prospect on sickels list. Garrison is listed as #12 and is a C+ prospect. My personal opinion is Inman will struggle heavily in AAA and will be lower next year but we'll just have to see. Of course the Padres can turn any pitcher into at least an ok pitcher because of that park they play in so they can afford to take risks on young pitching.
  11. Ennder
    We gave up very little that mattered in the Linebrink trade and more importantly the trade itself could have put us in the playoffs. We ended up just 2 games down so even a marginal value trade had the chance of making the difference.
  12. Ennder
    They released updated rosters for ZiPs/DMB yesterday and I ran a bunch of simulations with the limit playtime feature to try to create more realistic seasons. Cubs generally came in first with an occassional year where the Brewers came in 1st. Brewers took the wild card a good number of times. They usually finished in the 84-88 win range.
  13. Ennder
    I don't expect Gwynn to play fulltime so I doubt he can earn the job, especially since his only skill is stealing bases. Gross is a bit more likely since he has some power and good BB's but at best I think he can buy himself extra playtime as the 4th OF, not a full time job.
  14. Ennder
    I'm guessing the reason hitters do worse with a base stealer on 1st is because the hitter is trying to take a pitch to let the runner go and gets behind in the count a lot. As soon as your behind in the count your chances of success has gone down. Not surprising I agree with rluzinski. Quite a few studies have been done and not one has found that having a base stealer on 1st helps a hitter more than having anyone else on 1st. If this were really such a big deal it would turn up in the stats somewhere. I'm sure there are specific pitchers that really get bothered by the runner and specific hitters who don't get bothered etc but on a global level it just isn't a big deal.
  15. Ennder
    I'm not attributing it to defense though, I modified the xERA because they showed said pattern already. Last year went above and beyond the pattern. ERA is horrible for judging a pitchers talent over a single year, it is the simple truth and there is no doubt about it. We are talking about a SINGLE year here. Now if you want to talk about their ERA over the last 3 years or something you start to have an argument as long as you are defense/park/bullpen adjusting it somewhere (and no ERA+ doesn't defense or bullpen adjust it). You of course are more than welcome to your opinion but you are as likely to convince me that 1+1=3 as you are that ERA is how you should be judging a single year from a pitcher. There is so much variance and luck involved over 200 IP that the stat is just not very useful. Give me a 600 IP chunk of ERA and I'll buy into it some, 200 and it means almost nothing.
  16. Ennder
    Well if I were going to compare them I'd look at xERA and then the pitchers career trends compared to it and park he is in. xERA shows very strong correlation year to year and adjusts based on changes in skills not changes in things like strand rate and hit rate. It factors in BB's, K's and GB% which are the biggest keys to pitching. What xERA doesn't do is account for pitchers who don't fit the 'typical' mold so you have to look at a players career trends and modify xERA based on those to get a true skill level. Livan has had a 4.04, 4.65, 5.13, 5.55 xERA the last four years a pretty clear downward trend. his BB/9 are going up, K/9 going down and FB% is going up which are all bad things. He has a pretty clear cut trend of beating his xERA mostly because he has above average strand rates and pitched in a park that suppresses his HR's so I'd say something around a 5 ERA is what he pitched like last year. Park adjust that and it looks even worse. Bush has had a 4.23, 4.23, 3.49, 4.18 xERA the past four years which is a pretty steady skillset. He is the opposite of Livan showing a career long pattern of low strand rates and giving up too many HR's. I'd say he pitched something around a 4.55 ERA last year from a skills standpoint. Park adjust that and it looks a little bit better. In this case the most likely culprit is team defense. Livan had the lowest hit rate of his last four years this season and Bush had his highest, which isn't surprising since Arizona was a strong defensive team and the Brewers one of the worst in baseball.
  17. Ennder
    No I'm just saying ERA+ isn't something I'd use over a single season. If you want to look at say 3 year averages and use ERA I'm a bit more ok with it. When you say Livan was better than Bush or Capuano last year because of ERA+ it is on very shaky ground. Also my argument has absolutely nothing to do with DIPS or FIP and even if it were FIP shows a better correlation year to year than ERA so I'd still side with it if all I had was a single season of information.
  18. Ennder
    ERA+ is a very shaky stat over a single year so I don't think you can draw any conclusions from it for comparing pitchers. It suffers every flaw that ERA does and then adds shady park factors to the mix. If you swap Livan and Bush you would have easily seen a 5+ ERA out of Livan last year without a single doubt in mind. Having said that the Twins have a pretty good defense and they always seem to have success with pitchers (other than the Liriano injury of course) so I bet this works out ok for them.
  19. Ennder
    How many of the people who hate the DH are over 35 I wonder ( I am over 35 btw). I definitely see baseball eventually going with the DH in both leagues once the younger generation who is used to the concept becomes the older generation. Just curious if there are fans who are younger that still hate the DH so much. I personally consider it a part of the evolution of the game just like the wild card and the all star game deciding home field advantage (I know a lot of old school fans hate both of those too).
  20. Ennder
    The only time pinch hitting for a pitcher is a big deal is when there are 2 outs with a RISP and it is the middle innings. The rest of the time the choice is pretty simple. I'd say a tough choice comes up something like 1 time a week at most and for most managers they have a philosophy on how to handle it and it won't change much from game to game. Sorry the statement just really bothers me. I watch a ton of baseball AL and NL and rarely do I walk away from a game impressed with how they handled the pitcher slot hitting. It is generally a very easy decision to make and hardly makes it 'the thinking man's game'.
  21. Ennder
    I always find this comment funny. A trained monkey could handle the extra decision making that is required in the NL.
  22. Ennder
    I'd love to not have to watch most of our pitchers bat, though I'd miss watching Gallardo hit.
  23. Ennder
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7128
  24. Ennder
    To be fair, JB12 is usually more like 3/4 empty so I do agree with Gopher, it gets a bit over the top somethimes. That is just how some people are and it is fine since he seems to actually like the team unlike certain other posters who seem almost happy when something goes wrong with the Brewers.
  25. Ennder
    I'd be shocked if Sheets is traded mid season. If he is healthy and effective he is a pretty clear cut type A. If he is injured he is most likely a type B.
×
×
  • Create New...