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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    He had to have worn glasses or contacts last year though right? It isn't like he was playing with bad vision and no correction and suddenly had lasik. At least I'd hope that isn't the case.
  2. Ennder
    That is going a bit too far. I don't expect CV to be much better than a #3 or #4 but the average #5 is a 5+ ERA. I do not think that is CV's ceiling at all.
  3. Ennder
    Cubs RF's hit .293/.375/.419/.794 last year. I don't think it is a given that a 30 year old player coming off of elbow problems who has never had an AB in the majors is much of an upgrade. I'd say it is less of an upgrade than Cameron replacing Menchkins since our LF's hit .261/.318/.453/.771 last year. Keeping in mind that OBP is roughly 1.7-1.8 times more important than SLG.
  4. Ennder
    betting lines are there to promote people to bet, so the larger the market the higher they are ranked no matter what.
  5. Ennder
    Don't get me wrong, it is as much Sheets fault. Every time the coach comes out to talk to him he pushes hard to go deeper into the game so he is as much at fault for those pitch counts as the manager. Starting 2005 when he had problems pitching in spring training he lobbied to pitch in the world baseball classic. The finger had nothing to do with his other injuries, it is just one of those things that happened. I can't imagine there is anything a pitcher can do to stop from getting a jammed finger other than not playing guitar hero. The back was a problem before they abused him, he pitched with the bad back all of 2004. The shoulder is the only injury I think can be blamed on over usage. I'd be more dubious about the groin tweek if it hadn't been raining hard while it happened. The hamstring bothers me just because it was during a warmup and not while actually running the bases. Do I think Sheets is more likely to be hurt than a typical pitcher? Yes I do. Just not nearly as much as others seem to think. Do I think all pitchers have a roughly 25-30% chance to get hurt every year? Yes I do, other than a few exceptional guys. Do I think hard throwers are more likely to get hurt than soft tossers? Yes I do, puts Sheets at more of a risk. Will I be surprised if Sheets pitches 32 games this year? Not one bit, his arm wasn't abused last year and he is now far enough removed from the major injury that I am more worried about his stats slipping last year than the injury.
  6. Ennder
    But if your uncle the mailman had a knee injury that he recovered from, then later fell down on a really icy day and then got bit in the hand by a dog would you think that he was more likely than other mailmen to get hurt the next year? I mean this whole thing is always so overblown. Sheets pitched way too much in 2004, Sheets got hurt in 2005 with an injury that they said would take 9-12 months to heal. 6 months later they tried to pitch him and he aggravated the same injury, 12 months after the original injury Sheets is healthy again as expected. The next year Sheets is healthy other than some minor injuries that could have happened to absolutely any pitcher in baseball. This means he's frail? I guess I just don't get it. Then again I didn't get why people thought Jenkins would get hurt again or Hardy. There are chronic type injuries that you expect to repeat like Harden, Prior, Burnett etc have and Sheets is 1.5 years removed from any problems like that. Then there are things like tweaking a groin or jamming a finger or getting hit by a ball or colliding with someone that is just part of baseball and has very little to do with the player involved (except some cases of totally reckless players).
  7. Ennder
    Ned is correct that last year was bad luck as well as the inner ear thing. Pitchers get injured fingers, it is just part of the game and can happen to anyone. The idea that there was a conditioning problem or that is likely to recur is pretty unlikely. The groin tweak was pitching in a game that should have been in a rain delay, everyone was slipping all over the field. The hamstring again is something that happens to tons of players in baseball even pitchers and it doesn't just target those with conditioning issues. 2005 was because they abused a pitcher because he was pitching outstanding and 2006 was trying to bring that pitcher back before he was ready (these things are as much Sheet's fault as the teams since I know he always lobbies for that extra inning).
  8. Ennder
    I'm gonna imagine the farther back in history you go the less that little tool he is using works. But yeah that doesn't surprise me too much, pitching in the dead ball era was a joke compared to now so I imagine any comparison is going to fail.
  9. Ennder
    I'm gonna imagine the farther back in history you go the less that little tool he is using works. But yeah that doesn't surprise me too much, pitching in the dead ball era was a joke compared to now so I imagine any comparison is going to fail.
  10. Ennder
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/ Pitchers really didn't throw all that many more pitches back in the day, hitters just worked the count less so they went more innings. The difference is somewhere in the order of 10-20% and that was probably because the mound changes have made pitching more stressful combined with more violent type pitches than in the past. I personally also buy into the modern pitchers pitch more high stress innings. You just don't see that many hitters that are easy outs.
  11. Ennder
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/ Pitchers really didn't throw all that many more pitches back in the day, hitters just worked the count less so they went more innings. The difference is somewhere in the order of 10-20% and that was probably because the mound changes have made pitching more stressful combined with more violent type pitches than in the past. I personally also buy into the modern pitchers pitch more high stress innings. You just don't see that many hitters that are easy outs.
  12. Ennder
    Yeah the article is just some blog entries, but figured I should link it since I borrowed the stats from it. I notice that Oswalt and Smoltz both lived in the 3500 pitch range and survived it, but there are very few guys who sit in that range for 2-3 years and still pitch well for very long.
  13. Ennder
    Yeah the article is just some blog entries, but figured I should link it since I borrowed the stats from it. I notice that Oswalt and Smoltz both lived in the 3500 pitch range and survived it, but there are very few guys who sit in that range for 2-3 years and still pitch well for very long.
  14. Ennder
    Some interesting information on this blog especialy pertaining to Sheets and Capuano. http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/ Here are some members of the 3500 Club who made the list more than once between 2001 and 2007 Ben Sheets Jason Schmidt Matt Clement Kerry Wood Mark Prior Russ Ortiz Freddy Garcia Barry Zito Carlos Zambrano Doug Davis Noah Lowry Chris Capuano Dontrelle Willis Tim Hudson Mark Mulder You'll notice everyone on that list has seen their career head the wrong way after throwing 3500+ pitches multiple years. Just something interesting to keep in mind when we watch how many pitches they let Gallardo throw this year. I know I was worried about Capuano after they abused him in 2005 trying to get him to 20 wins and by Sheets in 2004 when he pitched so many innings, I sure hope they don't do the same with Gallardo.
  15. Ennder
    Some interesting information on this blog especialy pertaining to Sheets and Capuano. http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/ Here are some members of the 3500 Club who made the list more than once between 2001 and 2007 Ben Sheets Jason Schmidt Matt Clement Kerry Wood Mark Prior Russ Ortiz Freddy Garcia Barry Zito Carlos Zambrano Doug Davis Noah Lowry Chris Capuano Dontrelle Willis Tim Hudson Mark Mulder You'll notice everyone on that list has seen their career head the wrong way after throwing 3500+ pitches multiple years. Just something interesting to keep in mind when we watch how many pitches they let Gallardo throw this year. I know I was worried about Capuano after they abused him in 2005 trying to get him to 20 wins and by Sheets in 2004 when he pitched so many innings, I sure hope they don't do the same with Gallardo.
  16. Ennder
    He is a better defensive 2B than DeRosa, DeRosa had a career last year. Signing Roberts also allows DeRosa to be the backup at 3B when ARamis has his yearly injury. DeRosa also will see some time at SS replacing a weak bat .
  17. Ennder
    I'd say Roberts is a good 2-3 win upgrade for that team so it certainly would be a big deal. Now they might lose a win somewhere by dealing away pitching depth etc as well.
  18. Ennder
    It would but his power didn't really change last year, in fact his ISO was the highest it's been since 2004. His HR/FB was just a tiny bit lower than previous years. He did popout more than normal but not nearly enough to make up that huge drop in BABIP. Guys whose only skill is making contact tend to just fluctuate wildly in BABIP. I think having him bat 8th should keep his OBP up near .330-.340 as he takes BB's in front of the pitcher. That doesn't really make him valuable but it probably does make him match or surpass what we got out of Estrada last year. But then again there is always the chance that he is just done too, C's do not age gracefully especially ones who logged a lot of innings.
  19. Ennder
    I'm not sure I can agree with that. I think a manager is probably at best 2-3 wins one way or the other. The worst manager in baseball probably causes about 2-3 extra losses and the best gives 2-3 extra wins. Now that number is just pulled out of thin air and their is no way to prove it but I've heard other baseball minds say roughly the same range and it just 'feels right'. We lost the division by 2 games last year and I think we are about equal to the Cubs again this year. The division is most likely going to come down to just 1-4 wins. If Yost is below average and costs us 2 games it could easily be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
  20. Ennder
    Some people are slow learners~. Like I said I'm not a big Yost fan, I'd rather they had fired him at the end of last season. However I'd rather have a coach that struggles with in game moves than one who the team doesn't support, who leaves pitchers out too long to ruin young arms, who refuses to play young guys even when they are on the roster (dodgers) etc. I really wish Yost would take a class on in game management or something but that is the kind of thing I feel does grow with experience. Oh yeah and he has to stop doing that little grimace/smile thing when his boneheaded moves don't work out, that little thing makes me want to smash the TV.
  21. Ennder
    I'm not a big Yost supporter but I think the flaws in his managing are things that can be fixed with experience so I'm not overly upset with the move. I just hope he is still on a relatively short leash.
  22. Ennder
    Bush has a career long problem of well below average strand rates. 90% or more or pitchers out there have a better career LOB% than Bush does, even really bad pitchers don't generally sit in the range he does. So that is a very valid statement by him.
  23. Ennder
    The first thing I'd want to do is 'luck' neutralize his stats. Kendall had a .261 BABIP last year which was the lowest of his career and well below his career total of .321. He has a career long history of heavy fluctuations in the stat so there is a decent reason to believe that last year was just a down BABIP year for him. If he plays just like last year but that normalizes to say .300 (still below his career rates) he is suddenly hitting .280ish with a .340ish OBP and a pathetic SLG. There certainly is a reason to expect him to be closer to 2006 than 2007 this season. Now don't get me wrong, there are 33 (his age) reasons he won't turn it around so I could see him totally falling off the map and if he does his contract is setup such that he should be splitting time at best so 2009 doesn't vest.
  24. Ennder
    Well that pretty much takes Pie off the market for the orioles. That leaves any Roberts deal to be centered around Cubs pitchers and maybe Patterson both of which would be acceptable to me.
  25. Ennder
    Crisp wasn't a bad idea but I'm not sure what we have that Boston would want, certainly not any of our pitchers. That leaves prospects and I'm not sure Crisp for prospects is any better than Cameron for just money.
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