Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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Whatever, you are pointing at a stat that isn't supposed to predict the current season at all for your argument. The system didn't fail, your understanding of what stats to look at did. PECOTA projected all three of those players as impact players for 2007 and all three were that is a success. To give you an example from this year, it sees Adam Jones as one of the highest upside players in the game. But the system projects him for an .778 OPS this season. The upside stat has nothing to do with this years projection.
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keep Gwynn out of the starting lineup in April and Kapler off of the team and my number of vents will go way down.
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That is simply not true. Almost every single stats oriented or fantasy oriented baseball site expects a complete bounceback from him. It is only the knee jerks who judge a pitcher by last years ERA that don't think anything of him and those people are generally clueless anyway.
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I just think you are being unrealistic about the system. You are saying the system is poor because of one of the more obscure stats it spits out didn't instantly project Braun, Tulo and Pence as top players. It actually projected an .845 OPS for Braun in his rookie year so it is hardly like it was down on him. The 90th percentile for Braun was a .968 OPS so it obviously pegged him as being pretty high upside and if you assume that part of his BABIP was luck last year that is probably about an accurate projection. It projected an .827 OPS for Pence with his 75th percentile projection being .894(he had an .899) so again it pegged him as an instantly quality player. It had Tulo down for an .810 OPS as a rookie(he had an .838). The PECOTA system was pretty darn good when it comes to projecting those 3 players considering it just had minor league stats to go on.
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You are taking a list way out of context though. That list is their overall upside for their entire careers. Not what they did in 2007.
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Braun was #12 on Goldsteins list last year, Tulo was #24. If you are talking the upside report well it is impossible to really judge that right now but Braun was 36 and Tulo was 75 but of course projecting the first year of someone in the majors is pretty darn rough. PECOTA has still shown the strongest correlations of any predicting system out there so not sure I really understand the complaints.
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Archive Talkin' Brewers with Jim Powell - 2/2/08 Edition
Ennder replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I find it really funny that Brennamen thinks the team has no shot to compete without Bedard but with Bedard would be the easy favorites. Just how many wins does he think Bedard is worth over a season? -
Archive Talkin' Brewers with Jim Powell - 2/2/08 Edition
Ennder replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yost talking about Kendall is just painful with the cliche. -
Well if PECOTA is accurate Murton is a step behind Dillon and Ward is a step beind Gross. The Cubs are also looking to trade Murton still which would eat into their depth. I think bench is another area where the Brewers and Cubs are pretty close, both teams just seem evenly matched overall.
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regardless, Sheets injuries are just not the type that worry GM's a ton. For all the complaints about him he has had two real injuries in his career and only one of them has any longterm ramifications, that isn't bad for a pitcher. It might limit him to a 3 or 4 year deal but it certainly won't hurt the per year total of his contract on the open market. Now if the Brewers actively go after him they might get a little discount because of them, but a team like the Yankees are going to focus on what happened in 2008 way more than a jammed finger in 2007 or an injury that he has been recovered from for 2.5 years by the time he hits the market..
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If Sheets is healthy all year and goes back to his 2004-2006 numbers, the injuries more or less go away as a bargaining chip and Sheets is probably at least $16M per year.
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http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/mets/archives/2008/02/mets_johan_not.html The two-time Cy Young winner receives a six-year extension for $137.5 million to go along with the $13.25 million he already was owed for 2008. The total package is for $150.75 million over seven years.
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Marmol was their 3rd best RP or so. Dempster was about the 5th best as the closer but I don't think that was part of the 'plan'. Seriously Marmol = Turnbow, can be extremely effective over a small sample but over the long haul the BB/9 will catch up to him.
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Bench players don't get the proper playtime until they come out with the team depth charts.
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We aren't talking about what happened last year though, we are talking about predicting the talent level of this year and for that I'd want to use both of them. Anyway it will be fun to see what happens. I like Upton, I don't think Drew is ever going to be a great SS and I think Young is going to take some time to really bust out as he learns plate patience. Jackson has reached the point that I don't expect him to be above average in his career, his upside is Lyle Overbay. I'm not a believer in Reynolds at all and it sounds like Tracy is going to have problems getting healthy for the season. Webb/Haren are a nice top of the rotation but I think Davis will tank, Owings will take some time to grow and RJ is done. The bullpen should be solid but it won't be as good as last year. Others aren't going to share those opinions and that is fine. I still have them over .500 but I don't think they match last years W total even though the team itself is better than it was last year.
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Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.
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Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.
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Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.
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Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense. I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections. The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections. The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections. The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections. The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.
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I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team. Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year) Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539) Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618) JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463) Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year) Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433) Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425) Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year) I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.
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I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team. Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year) Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539) Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618) JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463) Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year) Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433) Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425) Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year) I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.
