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derflotr

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Everything posted by derflotr

  1. derflotr
    Yeah, the days he's piled up on the DL in his career is really getting on my nerves.
  2. derflotr
    BP agrees Runner on 1st, no out: .8302 (expected runs) Runner on 2nd, one out: .6574 Runner on 2nd, no out: 1.0657 Runner on 3rd, one out: .9125 That's not the right data. Expected runs takes ALL runs scored and averages them out into one number--this is valuable in the early innings. The expected runs is almost always going to go down when you give away an out--but for scoring ONE more run the percentage may go up depending on the situation. In the bottom of the ninth, you are looking for the % of times that 0 runs scores, and trying to minimize that percentage. Also, if I recall from previously looking up those run expectancy charts, some of the common ones that are used are based off of stats from the late 90s and early 2000s--which were the most offensively homer skewed numbers in the history of baseball. I'd imagine that moving runners over has become more important as the homer rate has gone down. Those numbers are from this season. I haven't looked at ones from previous years, so you could use a sample size argument. Maybe they're weighted for historical trends, I don't know. But, I was talking about the bottom of the 8th inning. I know K-Rod's been pretty solid, but I'd try to maximize offensive output unless you're on the home side and it's the ninth inning or later.
  3. derflotr
    BP agrees Runner on 1st, no out: .8302 (expected runs) Runner on 2nd, one out: .6574 Runner on 2nd, no out: 1.0657 Runner on 3rd, one out: .9125
  4. derflotr
    From what I remember, the run expectation difference between man-on-2nd-no-out and man-on-3rd-no-out is really small. It's hard enough to justify giving away an out just to move a guy to 2nd. If it's Johnny Estrada, maybe someone could convince me a bunt isn't the worst idea in the world. But it's freaking Carlos Gomez. Any single scores him. Three chances. Give me a break.
  5. derflotr
    I'd be there.
  6. derflotr
    Reminds me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RydIbK2LV0
  7. derflotr
    There are plenty of other parts of the typical Brewers broadcast that annoy me more - not that I think FSN does poor work or anything, but there are necessary evils of broadcasting to a wide audience that chip away at my soul (the "*insert local business here* play of the game" or twitter/text questions). Some lady in a low-cut top isn't going to be the back-breaking straw. For me, anyway.
  8. derflotr
    If the Brewers were sacrificing an excellent option as the 5th bench guy to go with a 13-man staff, I may have a beef. I think 4 on the bench is enough, given the fact that the starters are still stretching out, the Lohse progression is unpredictable, and Narveson apparently isn't quite 100% (maybe I'm reading too much into it). Plus, Figaro, and Hand or even Olmsted, look like more useful players than Blake Lalli or whoever else they have to fill the 5th spot on the bench to get virtually no ABs anyway. Once Green and Bianchi come back, I may change my mind. Plus, the more ABs for bench guys (who are decent), the better, as far as I am concerned.
  9. derflotr
    I know the 40-man roster is pretty rigid at this point, but here come the corner infield DFAs - Mauro Gomez, Zack Cox...
  10. derflotr
    Will there be a looming innings limit for Peralta or Fiers should they stick? Estrada, even?
  11. derflotr
    Quick clarification: When a team claims someone on waivers like this, it isn't required of them to put the player on their own 40-man roster, correct?
  12. derflotr
    Guess I was right. Good lord.
  13. derflotr
    If Peralta is bumped from the rotation because of this I'm going to get pretty upset.
  14. derflotr
    I think the Brewers already have plenty of options if they need someone to pitch poorly or not get on base.
  15. derflotr
    Thank goodness.
  16. derflotr
    I will reserve judgement, as the whipping boy is generally a bench player (Kotsay, Izturis, Nieves, Gerut, Mench). Definitely Crosby if he somehow makes the roster. I'm guessing it will most likely be a player yet to be acquired, with Alex Gonzalez having an outside shot - simply because he's being forced into duty at 1B.
  17. derflotr
    Can't be beef'd with Roenicke. Doug Melvin hasn't given Roenicke another option. Currently, there's no right-hander on the roster bubble that has any experience at first base. Of course Gonzalez doesn't profile as a first baseman. At all. But that's not the point. There was an injury, and Melvin has yet to respond with a more typical replacement, so this is the result. I think it makes plenty of sense; there is no doubt Gonzalez can pick up the position quickly, in my mind. Without bringing in another first baseman who would likely be cut/sent down when Hart returns, they can carry a 13-man pitching staff through the opening month as starter's arms are still stretching out. Gonzalez starts maybe once a week against, presumably, left-handed pitching. The 25-30 PA he makes as a starter isn't going to have a catastrophic effect on the value the Brewers get from 1B this season.
  18. derflotr
    This is just it. Comparing the barebones stories that are out right now, I think Ryan's is more plausible. That's certainly subject to change, but I don't think I'm 'digging myself a hole' by thinking that. There's way too much that is unknown to feel really strongly either way, so I don't blame people for thinking he's a cheat automatically, especially considering the source of the information and the way they are presenting it at the moment.
  19. derflotr
    This is what I want to know. I'd consult an expert like Tony Bosch, but I wouldn't want to risk my reputation.
  20. derflotr
    So, here's what happened, folks: Ryan Braun, feeling awful proud after beating the system with his successful appeal of a positive test for PEDs last winter, walked into a shady PED clinic in Florida, thinking, "I'm invincible, I can get away with anything." He goes up to the front counter and says, "Hi, my name is Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers, initials 'RB' for short, if you like. I'll take 20-30 thousand dollars worth of PEDs." The guy says, "Well, that seems exorbitant. Ryan Braun, you say? Let me log that in our register." He reaches into a dark corner of the desk beneath, uncrumples a piece of notebook paper, and documents the official transaction, scribbling 'RB: 20-30k'. Braun says, "Yeah, I need PEDs for the rest of my career, right now. I buy in bulk, you know." The guy shambles into the back room and returns with 20-30 thousand dollars worth of PEDs. He goes, "Would you like a bag for this?" Braun says, "No, I'll just back the truck up to the front door." As the guy loads the final crate, Braun shouts, "Done yet?" The guy, sweating profusely, gasps and mutters, "Yeah. Last one." Braun says "Thanks, pay you later!" and squeals off, cackling with glee. Seems plausible enough.
  21. derflotr
    Same meaning intimated by a kajillion internet forumers in the past year.
  22. derflotr
    This annoys me.
  23. derflotr
    I think I'm with you on this (definitely on the Dempster/Lohse part), though I might subtract the word "enormous". Not as much of a fan of their bullpen re-structuring as you seem to be, though I do like Gonzalez. I have to admit, there have been several times the tiny voice in my head has hoped for the addition of just one starter who's at least had some kind of track record in the big leagues. I'm still a little sore from seeing a pitcher as good as Shaun Marcum taken off the market for $4 mil without even a whiff of possible Brewers involvement in the bidding; perhaps I worry about his arm issues too little. I've even found myself perusing stat pages for guys like Ted Lilly or Luke Hochevar, wondering about their trade value, then vigorously shaking it off with a quick ctrl + w. Which is why I'll be very proud of Melvin & co. if they stick to their guns with the home-grownish rotation, because I think giving a few of these guys an extended opportunity is crucial to the future of the organization. I hate to use the expression "throw it at a wall and see if it sticks", but it's sort of a requirement sometimes. The potential benefit of one or two of Peralta, Fiers, Rogers, Thornburg, or Burgos proving middle-of-the-rotation ability is worth the trouble should they fail. But, because of this, their contention for this season relies on unprovens overachieving, which isn't particularly comforting. Unfortunately, I think they kind of have to do it.
  24. derflotr
    The DH rule creates jobs. You anti-DHers are basically communists.
  25. derflotr
    I still really like Thornburg, and I hope the success of Rogers/Peralta/Fiers don't push him into a bullpen role. Not that he wouldn't succeed there, but I like him starting.
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