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Everything posted by nate82
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Are the Brewers one Year from Rebuilding?
nate82 replied to jakesdaddio's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
For Marcum yes for Wolf you would be lucky to get Burnett. You are not getting a top notch prospect for Marcum and there is about a zero percent chance of anyone giving up a prospect for Wolf. -
Why does everyone want to trade Hart?
nate82 replied to RockCoCougars's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Something a little bit more than what the White Sox got in return for Quentin. If a team like the Tigers were looking to trade for a bat Jacob Turner would be a very long stretch but you would be getting back a #2 or #3 type pitcher with the potential to be a #1 or an ace. -
Why does everyone want to trade Hart?
nate82 replied to RockCoCougars's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Really since 2002 (10 yrs of drafting) we got five stars; Prince, Braun, Gallardo, Hart and Weeks. That is .50 star players per draft. I would expect that number to be more like .75 and serviceable MLB guys at 1.5 which the Brewers cannot claim. That is actually a rather good rate. You are expecting way to much out of the draft if you think it is going to be something like .75 or higher. The only other teams that have done as good as the Brewers or better in the draft have been the Rays and the Reds recently. The Rays have been getting a return from the draft at a rather high rate of return at some point this will end. Having 5 players that you have drafted in about 10 years become all star talent and above is nothing to be concerned about. Look at the other teams and I bet you can't find many that have the same success the Brewers have had. Right now the Rays have Jennings, Price, Longoria, Hellickson, Upton, Young, and Moore. The Rays also have misses in their draft Wade Townsend in 2005 at the #8 pick and Dewon Brazelton #3 in 2001. The only thing the Rays have done better than basically anyone in baseball is getting great players in the later rounds. Jake McGee #135 and Wade Davis #75 in 2004; Jeremy Hellickson #118 in 2005; Alex Cobb #109 in 2006 and Desmond Jennings #289. In 2005 their best pick was in the 4th round at pick #118. The Rays right now are the best in baseball in terms of drafting and getting a good return. In terms of the last 10 years no one has been better than the Rays and no one even comes close to them but they have had busts in their drafts like every other teams have had. In the draft there are the Rays and then there is everyone else. Last 10 Major Leaguers draftedYear Rnd Overall Player 2007 1 1 David Price 2007 8 245 Matt Moore 2006 1 3 Evan Longoria2006 2 47 Josh Butler 2006 4 109 Alex Cobb 2006 10 289 Desmond Jennings 2005 4 118 Jeremy Hellickson 2004 1 4 Jeff Niemann 2004 2 45 Reid Brignac 2004 3 75 Wade Davis -
User Driven Power 50 (Dec 2011) - Results in! See Post #31
nate82 replied to CheezWizHed's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
1. Peralta 2. Thornburg3. Gennett4. Bradley5. Gindl6. Schafer7. Green8. Lopez9. D'Vo10. Jungmann11. Manzanillo 12. Arcia13. Scarpetta14. Ozuna15. Heckathorn16. Fiers17. Bucci18. Hall19. K. Davis20. Rivera21. Perez22. Rivas23. McClendon24. Ke. Davis25. Ramirez I really like Nick Ramirez as a power hitter at 1B and he looks to be the only guy in the Brewers minors that looks to have at least plus power in his bat. Also Gennett is probably the most polished hitter in the Brewers farm that is why I have him ranked so high as he has a higher ceiling than most of the players in the Brewers farm system besides D'Vo. With Gennett there is obviously the size and his defensive issues. Gennett isn't a top rated prospect and I wouldn't put him in the top 100 prospects in the minors but he is a solid prospect who if he can field better at 2B will probably be an annual all star at 2B as his bat is a plus at second. The one thing I am concerned about with D'Vo is that he maybe another Carlos Gomez like player. I believe D'Vo will turn into an elite defensive CF but he maybe as bad as Gomez at the plate and with his base running. There are really only a few prospects the Brewers have who would rate above a C rated prospect. Gennett, Peralta, Manzanillo, and Green are the ones that would rate above a C grade. All of the recent draft picks and DSL players are not included in this rating as they really haven't done much if anything in the minors yet. The Brewers farm system maybe down in terms of top talent but there is a lot of roster filler players. Schafer and Gindl are players who will have an impact on the team just that they won't be All Star type players. I can see Schafer and Gindl playing key roles as platoon players. The one thing the Brewers have a decent depth of are #4 and #5 pitchers. The most polished #5 pitcher is Fiers as I can see him being either a long reliever or a #5 pitcher. I believe Fiers is really a bottom of the rotation starter and he will be able rather successful I wouldn't be surprised if he put up an ERA around 3.6-4.00 in his rookie year as a starter. I believe Josh Collmenter of the Diamondbacks is very comparable to Fiers. Collmenter's 2011 stats: 3.38 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 1.07 WHIP. The Brewers really do have some strong #4 and 5 starters in the minors which is a very good thing as having these pitchers will have a better impact on the teams budget (no more Suppan or Looper like signings hopefully). -
The best thing for the Bucks to do would be to go into a 100% rebuilding mode which means trading Jennings and Bogut. Bogut is a great center but the Bucks are just not going to win with him and the same can be said about Jennings. I really wish the Bucks would have taken Holliday over Jennings in the draft as Holliday looks to be more of a PG every year while Jennings looks to be a rather short SG an Allen Iverson like player without the defense and the average shooting skills. The Bucks also have some very good complimentary players on the team that they could trade.
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User Driven Power 50 (Dec 2011) - Results in! See Post #31
nate82 replied to CheezWizHed's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'm not sure why he's putting any stock in Bradley's AFL work, that's a hitter's league, there's a reason the Brewers wanted out of High Desert. Bradley gave up 2 HRs in 8 innings, of course his ERA is going to look bad. Only Hultzen that I could see who is a top prospect did really well or that I can remember. Gerrit Cole the #1 pick didn't do as well either in the AFL they had almost identical stats. I am not sure how anyone could judge any player based on their stats in the AFL since it is a rather short season. Plus it was only 8.1 innings for Bradley I do not see how you can come up with any kind of a conclusion about a player by looking at only 8.1 innings of work. If this were more based on how he was throwing (velocity, movement, mechanics, etc.) then I could get behind basing something off of something so small for Bradley. It is interesting to see everyone putting D'Vo so high. I love D'Vo but he really hasn't shown all that much in the minors. I love his athleticism and he is really the only 5-tool player in the Brewers farm system right now but I am not sure he should be ranked that high but that maybe because of the lack of talent the Brewers have in the minors more so than anything else. -
Not impossible. Lets say Hart, Weeks, or one of the pitchers (Marcum, Greinke, or Gallardo) get injured. It is likely Hart or Weeks may get injured at some point in the season. If lets say Weeks goes down with an injury and is out until the All Star break then you have an IF of possibly Green/Izturis, Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Gamel. You also have to figure in a relief pitcher getting injured due to over use or just a general injury. The Brewers could also slide like the Reds did last year and be dead in the water by the All Star break. So it is very possible for the Brewers to be out of it by the deadline. Will that make the Brewers sellers that is hard to tell right now and it is almost nearly impossible to know what teams will be in on these players. To me the Brewers could cash in on a lot of the pieces they will have to trade. Rodriguez, Hart, Marcum, Greinke, Narveson, and Wolf all could be possible trade candidates you could even put Weeks, Morgan, or Gomez as possibilities also. I don't think the Brewers will trade many of their core players but Rodrgiuez, Marcum, and Greinke would definitely be shopped around if the Brewers were out of the race. It is kind of hard to determine who would be available and who would be seeking these players. Obviously with Weeks, Hart, and Narveson there would be multiple teams interested in them as they are under contract or have a few more years of team control. The Braves are the obvious link for Hart and if they are in the playoff picture I wouldn't be surprised to see Hart's name attached to them. If the Nationals are in the race I could see them wanting either Marcum or Greinke but they would probably want Greinke more than Marcum. KRod could go to almost any team in the playoff race. I think the Brewers could get a decent return on Greinke but Weeks and Hart would bring back better prospects.
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That trade has no chance at all. I don't see why the Braves would want Morgan/Gomez or Green. For the Brewers to get Heyward they would have to empty out the farm to get him as there is no way the Braves are going to trade him for anything less than three top 50 ranked MLB prospects. Basically Heyward is in the same boat as Justin Upton was in last year yeah you could have traded for him but you would have had to of given up a lot to get him. The Brewers do not have the prospects to get it done to get Heyward. Unless you are willing to trade Hart and Braun in that scenario there.
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How about Vlad as a PH and LF for the possible 50 games.
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Build Your 2012 Brewer Bench in December 2011
nate82 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I wish there was a Bill Hall type of a fa who can play all over the place. The only player who I can think of that fits that bill would be Joe Inglett. C: KottarasIF: Green, InglettOF: Gomez, Fukudome -
Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?
nate82 replied to Robideaux's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Ryan Braun says hi. Braun was never really the leader of the team that landed on Prince the last 3 or 4 seasons. -
Rangers interested in McGehee?
nate82 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
For players like McGehee it takes on average 3-years of good to average production for them to create value in the trade market. After his first year he would of been considered a fluke and would have even less trade value than he has now. After his second year he would have had a little bit more value than what he has now but still not going to get you anything very good or with a high ceiling you are looking at getting another McGehee in return. If McGehee would have played at an average level this year he would have had a lot of value but he didn't so he has about the same value he had after year one and year two which is not all that much. McGehee's value hasn't changed all that much from 2009 to now he is still the same player with the same skill set and with the same upside. McGehee's value never was high at all even after 2009 and 2010 and even if McGehee played better this past season his value would have been about the same it would have increased a little but you are talking about a systems 20-30 ranked prospect here. Now with McGehee's drop in value you are looking at a prospect in the 30-50 range. The value didn't drop all that much for McGehee because at best you are looking at a teams 20-30 and realistically you were looking at probably a 30-35 of a teams prospect list. Which if you go by the power 50 here you are looking at someone like Eric Farris or a Cameron Garfield type of a player. -
A one year deal would be very unlikely almost a zero percent chance that Ramirez would take a one year deal. Ramirez turned down a nice player option for one year and I don't see him accepting a one year deal that will be less than what he could have gotten by accepting his option. Ramirez may just retire if he doesn't get a deal that is at least a 2-year deal with a very reachable vesting option for a 3rd year.
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Not going to happen. If anything Cain and Greinke are going to cost more than what C.J. Wilson signed this year. At a minimum you are looking at a contract for Greinke at 5-years and $80m. If Greinke hits free agency that number is only going to climb in the end if Greinke goes to free agency he will get something around 7 years and $135m. Now Marcum you are looking at a contract at a minimum of what Buehrle got I would say something like 5-years and $75m. I believe that is about where Marcum will be looking to get and it is close to what the market would pay for him. I would want neither Marcum or Greinke at those prices especially Greinke at a free agent price. The most I would go on Marcum is 3-years and $30m while I would go with the 5-years and $80m with Greinke and that would be it. Both Marcum and Greinke will get better deals than what the Brewers should even think about offering.
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Brewers to sign Sheets to replace Provus in 2012! Not sure if that should be in blue or not?
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It looks like the Brewers are really the only fit for Ramirez. With the Red Sox being stuck with Ortiz, I highly doubt they will trade him, and Youkilis there really are not that many teams available that would be interested in Ramirez. The Angels made their big splash with Pujols and Wilson I don't really see them going after another player like Ramirez. Maybe the Marlins might go after Ramirez but they would have to trade Hanley first for that to happen. The Phillies if they sign Rollins will be out of the running for Ramirez. So who else other than the Brewers would have interest in Ramirez? I'm thinking Ramirez is going to get a 3-year $36m deal from the Brewers and it is basically going to be the best offer he will get and maybe even the only offer he will get. If it is the only offer he gets I am wondering if the Brewers could actually get Ramirez on a discount at $10m a year for 2-years with a mutual option for a 3rd year.
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Yuck this sets the market for Marcum no way would I give Marcum anything close to what Buerhle got. Hopefully Melvin stays away from talking to Marcum's agent about an extension.
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McGehee needs to be non-tendered. There isn't a team in the league who would pay him the 3 mil or whatever it is he'll make in arby. The Phillies would pay McGehee 3m over Polanco and there are a couple of other teams that would pay McGehee 3m to play 3B for them.
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I think the Brewers are going to be one of the only teams to show interest in Ramirez unless Rollins signs elsewhere then he will be in Philadelphia but the Phillies would first have to trade Polanco before they can do that. Another team that maybe interested in Ramirez would be the Red Sox but they would have to either trade Youkilis or move him to DH and not resign Ortiz and I think the Red Sox are going to look at a corner OF spot before they look at signing Ramirez and making a decision on Ortiz and Youkilis. Ramirez may be out in free agency limbo for awhile as two of the three teams that would have interest in Ramirez wait on other things to develop first. If Rollins resigns with the Phillies the Brewers maybe the best option for Ramirez unless he waits for the situation to fix itself in Boston. The Cubs maybe a surprise team if Ramirez sits out there for to long. My thought is if we can get Gonzalez at SS and Ramirez at 3B our fielding and hitting improve at both positions (although I guess I could be wrong about fielding) Actually it would be the opposite at least for Gonzalez at SS that is. Gonzalez would be an improvement defensively over Yuni but offensively they are about the same with Yuni getting a slight edge over Gonzalez offensively. Overall though Gonzalez is a better player because of his defense at SS.
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So many of the players available are aging, fading veterans - Tejada, Cabrera, Gonzalaz, Wilson, Renteria. There's no upside on these guys. If you are looking for upside in the free agency market you are looking in the wrong market. There is hardly ever any player that is going to be available in free agency that is going to give you any upside at all. Nearly all of the players who have fit free agency have either peaked or just about to peak performance wise. Free agency is mostly veteran players you are not going to find much of an upside in free agency even Reyes doesn't have much upside left in him in fact he has probably already has peaked the same with Fielder and any other free agent out there. Tejada is worse than Yuni he had no range at 3B now imagine him trying to play SS again the Giants trade that last year and he was worse than Yuni there. Gonzalez is the best defensively out of the bunch but probably only better than Tejada offensively right now. Gonzalez would be the perfect fit for the Brewers as he could be the #8 or #7 hitter in the lineup and he would make the teams defense better. If the Brewers could get him for $2m or less then that would be a great signing.
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K-Rod wants to be the closer he will get a 0% chance to do that in Milwaukee and thus will not accept arbitration. It is not about the money for K-Rod it is about being that guy at the end of the bullpen as the closer he will take less to be a closer. If the Brewers land Ramirez it will be donwn to Yuni and Gonzalez and between the two it will be who is the cheapest.
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Obligatory Hanley Ramirez Thread
nate82 replied to jjkoestler's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
What it would take is more than the offer you put forward and no the Brewers could not get him in a trade as there isn't enough trade chips in the farm system to get Hanley Ramirez. This would be closer to what the Marlins would be looking for in return of Ramirez. Brewers get RamirezMarlins get Braun -
Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?
nate82 replied to BillyRed's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Sounds like it is just about a done deal with Reyes to the Marlins. I don't see any team topping what the Marlins offered Reyes. I think the Marlins are bidding against themselves here as I don't see any team that was in on Reyes that were going to go over $100m and 5 or 6 years.

