nate82

Looks like they are more willing to spend than trade. I think they will get Cease and then sign someone like A. Chapman or maybe Hader. I just don’t believe the O’s will give up the prospects needed in a Burnes trade or a Burnes and Williams trade.

First transfer to the Badgers so far:

Yes and No. Adding more teams allows you to move teams up that you wouldn't if you are looking at less teams. There is an argument to be made that Alabama isn't a top 4 team and would be maybe 5th or 6th with Georgia or FSU taking the #4 or #5 spot. I think FSU is the 4th best team but I wouldn't put them in a top 4 in a 4 team playoff structure. I would put Georgia, Alabama, Texas and Ohio State over them. With a top 12 team playoff the difference between 4-9 isn't as critical as all get in. In a 12 team field I think it goes 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. FSU 4. Texas 5. Alabama 6. Georgia 7. Ohio State 8. Oregon 9. Missouri 10. Oklahoma 11. Mississippi 12. Penn State.

Burnes value will be closer to what the Padres gave up for Snell in 2020. So a top 50 prospect and then a couple of organizational top 15-20 prospects. That is Burnes true worth. If you want to put it in a dollar value Burnes has a value of about $35mm assuming he has another 4+ WAR year. Add in the pick which for the Braves would be o A top 50 ranked prospect is about $30mm in value which will be in the 3rd round as the Braves will be a CBT Payor with the acquisition of Burnes. So lets add $5mm to bring this to about $40mm in excess value which is more than what Burnes is worth but I am taking in a serious bidding war for him. If the Brewers hold onto him until the deadline it will be less than $40mm in excess value probably around $25-30mm. Which means you would have someone like Waldrep headlining the deal for Burnes. So with AJ Smith-Shawver who is a 50 FV prospect which puts him at about $25mm in excess value. So we are about $15mm short of a Burnes trade number. $40mm is the top of the market so anything within +/- $5mm should be accurate enough. Waldrep is also a 50 FV prospect so we have two players totaling $50mm in value. That is $10mm over Burnes valuation with his draft pick associated with him. It is an absolute overpay by the Braves if you are including Waldrep with AJ Smith-Shawver. You can get one but you are not getting both. The one year of control of Burnes is what is holding back his value. If this were last year yes you would be correct Burnes would command both Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver but not with only 1-year of control left.

No it will not. You are overestimating Burnes actual worth if you think you are getting both back.

That would be too much or that is all you would get in return and I don't believe the Braves would be interested in trading both of those pitchers. You could get Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver but not both. You might be able to get someone like Owen Murphy but definitely not Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawyer in the same deal.

FSU played one ranked team this year. I don't have a problem with leaving FSU out. Their schedule was nothing but cupcakes all year. They just barely beat the 15th ranked team backup QB or no backup QB that is not a good look. Yes they went undefeated but who did they actually play to go undefeated? I would probably go Michigan, Texas, Alabama/Georgia and Washington. To me it is 1 Michigan 2 Texas 3 Alabama/Georgia 5 Washington 6 Ohio State 7 FSU.

Sure but this player did this in their age 21 season in MLB maybe the Brewers should have sent him down because he sucked that year and definitely wouldn't have become a HoF player nope not even possible.

I could see the Giants trading Harrison for Burnes but I think it would be contingent on Burnes signing a long term contract with them. AJ Smith-Shawver, Grissom and a lottery ticket would be a good haul for Burnes from the Braves and this is probably the same offer they are proposing to the White Sox for Cease. I like Sheehan over Stone from the Dodgers but after that it is really hard to put a trade together with the Dodgers without including Adames.

I think Adames won’t be traded now with the Chourio signing. I believe the idea here from Arnold is to have a mentor at the MLB level and there is no one better than Adames on the Brewers right now. I believe Arnold would have to be absolutely blown away by a trade offer to trade Adames. Burnes on the other hand will be traded. Once Cease gets traded the Burnes trade rumors will really heat up. I hope the Orioles get Cease and that then makes the Dodgers and Braves desperate to make a trade for Burnes.

I remember Aaron Gibson being talked about being a really good or maybe average tackle at one point. But he basically ate himself out of the league and wasn't as strong or quick when he got to the NFL. I remember seeing how big he had gotten in the NFL and then watching NFL DL just bum rushing him even though he was bigger than everyone else.

LOL the Brewers are not signing Chapman regardless of this deal. Chapman is expecting to get about $16m per year on the low end and he should get about a four or five year contract. I don't see the Brewers giving Chapman that kind of a deal. Hoskins is possible but I think he gets a higher dollar per year from other teams than what the Brewers would be comfortable in giving. With or without the Chourio signing.

There won't be subsidy this year if teams get dropped. MLB provided up to 80% for 2023 but for 2024 they will not be doing this. https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/10/28/broadcast-diamondbacks-padres-games-rob-manfred-rsns#:~:text=Tickets-,MLB Planning to Broadcast Diamondbacks%2C Padres Games in 2024,NL West clubs next season. From the linked article Manfred has stated they will be in position to support up to 16 teams. Also from the linked article: It sounds like once the regional TV contracts are over with MLB is prepared to go all digital only.

I am not sure Black makes it on the opening day lineup but he definitely has a chance.

I would move Wiemer. I think he has more value than Mitchell and I think the Brewers prefer to keep Frelick.

With what prospects that the White Sox would be interested in? I think this is just tire kicking by the Cardinals.

You can add "Weimer" to that list but then there would be no one on this board.

Frelick 1 then Chourio 2 is probably a better top of the lineup. Probably just move Yelich to the 5 or 6 spot in the lineup.

I think the Dodgers have lost out on Cease and will now be turning their attention to Burnes and Adames. If the Orioles get Cease that Dodgers Braves bidding war for Burnes should be fun. I just don't believe the Braves will go over the first cap for Glasnow and I am not sure if they will be interested in Bieber over Burnes. Whoever loses out on Burnes probably goes with Bieber over Glasnow unless the Rays are willing to eat a portion of Glasnow's salary. Maybe the Rangers will go after Glasnow but that is a big gamble when they already have DeGrom who is recovering from TJ surgery.

I think we can cross Baltimore off the list. I think they are going to get Cease and most of the prospects that you would want in return for Burnes or Williams will be traded for Cease instead.

Countdown to spring training for catchers and pitchers. Each clock equals a month. Catchers normally report in February I think it is?

No, Allen is a poor RB in the spread offense. He is not quick enough to be in the spread. He is far better in a pro scheme. Allen will be the better NFL RB because of this.

Not to mention Mellusi is just a better RB for the scheme they are running offensively.

Cease looks like he will be traded first either to the Dodgers or Braves. If the Dodgers get Cease I think they will then turn their attention to Adames. That leaves the Braves with Glasnow, Bieber or Burnes as an option. I don’t think they will go with Glasnow as that may put their payroll above the first limit. I don’t see the Rays eating any of that salary. So Bieber and Burnes would be option A and B after Cease. The Braves are not the best team to be trading with as they don’t have all that much in terms of prospects.

So Dobbs is still a good trade?