CheezWizHed

Then pulled pork, ribs, brisket... I often have our church's youth group over (since I have kids that age) for food and hangout. One of the parents and I were talking about the last one. They asked their kids what I made (brisket). They said, "I'm not sure, but since it was the ****'s house, it was something smoked". I have a type...

Like moderating an internet forum! 😂

Normally, I'd agree with you, but only one RB led the pre-season in rushing. That is the only difference I'd make. He showed off his cutting, size, and speed. This isn't like the Goodson discussion last year. I had zero worries about losing Goodson. Remember that Taylor was a core ST last year too, but started the season on the PS because they could. I expect that to happen again. The PS is now an extension to the 53-man squad.

Bubble players: if cut, what are our chances of losing them? We often overvalue a particular guy and fear we lose them only to see them pass through waivers. Here is my take on this year's bubble players: QB: McGough: 0% chance he is claimed if cut RB: Taylor: 0% chance of being claimed. Works for the Packers, but little upside anymore. A year older than last year when no one claimed him. Wilson: 50% chance. Definitely a spark. RB isn't valued as much in a passing league, but his splash runs and leading the league might get someone's attention. Goodson: 0% chance. Injured and barely played. Someone else might grab him for their PS though. WR/TE: DuBose: 5% chance. Injury set him back, but looked OK in games. Being a 7th rounder might make someone look. Melton, Bonds, Chrest: Zero percent chance. Lots of these guys. Melton might stand out because of his speed, but injury and lack of production (due to that injury) will keep anyone away from a 53 man squad selection. Allen: 5% chance. His size and athleticism might make someone look if they need a blocking TE. OL: Newman: 75% chance. I've warmed to the idea of cutting Newman as he simply isn't getting better. Someone will grab him given his starting experience and draft status. But if we cut him... do we care? Caleb Jones: 25% chance. He has shown enough that someone might nab him as a 4th T Telfort/Tenuta/Empey. Zero chance. Might be interesting developmental, but not ready for a 53 man. If both Te* tackles are healthy, we probably lose one to someone else's PS, but not a 53 man waiver. DL: Ford: 60% chance. Just because he is a big man that is starting to look like he can contribute (kind of like 2nd year TJ Slaton... talent and size, but wasn't quite there yet). Chris Slayton: 0% chance. Wasn't claimed last year when he had a good preseason. Didn't splash much this year. LB: Cox: 75%. I keep bouncing around on him. Maybe because I'm trying to convince myself that if the Packers cut him, we can keep him on the PS. But I think all Cox really needed to show was that he could play as a team player. Talent wasn't questioned and would've been drafted if it weren't for other issues. At a premium position, someone will grab him given the physical talent and strong pre-seasons showing. Carpenter: 10%. If someone needs a ST player, he would be one to grab. Still a mile away from impacting the playing field, but has some upside there. Moseby, Banks, Phillips: Zero chance. CB: Ballentine: 10% CB depth with little upside. Versatility and capability might have someone grab him if they need a short-term depth piece. Jean-Charles: 10%. Similar to Ballentine, but shorter and younger. Had his moments in pre-season, but not much upside. Tyrell Ford, Hooper, Thomas. Zero. Between the five CBs here, Thomas might have the best upside. Not much distinguishing them from each other. So even if there is a claim here...next man up and move on. S Owens or Moore: 75% I have a feeling one is cut as Ford and these two are rather redundant. Experience gives them a good chance of being claimed, but it isn't a loss since we have the other two. Maybe one could be traded? Gaines: 10%. Similar to Ballentine or SJC above, could be a fill-in depth piece but limited upside. Sapp: Zero percent. Splashed a bit in pre-season, but needs more work. Good opportunity for Packer PS. ST: O'Donnell: 100%. His experience and leg gets him in somewhere. Welean: 50%. I'm not sure the state of punters in the NFL frankly. Showed he has an NFL leg... not sure if someone would bite on him being their main punter or not?

I'm there on Wilson too. I tend to hope the Packers keep him as there is certainly some potential there. But recent history tends to favor 2 RB. But Wilson and Cox are probably the two bubble players with the highest chance of being claimed if cut.

Yeah, I couple times I saw something kind of "meh" from him and had to think... did Rodgers do that last season (i.e. underthrow Watson or throw some contested balls)? And the answer was yes. The key will be how often he does it, but you expect the QB to attempt some splash plays that are semi-risky. His overall play though is very good. His poise, patience, and pocket presence (alliteration unintended) have all been excellent in the pre-season against vanilla defenses. The key will be if it remains that way in the regular season against blitzes and defenses built to stop him.

Fire Megrilled!

You got half of what you wanted...

Funny how hitting can be contagious. The bats are surely a bit hotter now than at any other time this year.

I was impressed by Love yesterday. He hasn't seen much pressure this year, but he really was unfazed by it. I absolutely loved the little pump fake that got a blitzer up in the air and then he simply side-stepped and ran past him. BEEE-AAA-utiful. Love has shown enough in pre-season to be at least an average starter at QB. How will he be able to produce against starting defenses that are game-planned against him? How will he be able to adjust the offense, pick-up blitzes and hot reads? How will his accuracy look in tight coverage or throwing WRs open? Those are the things that will determine if he is a decent starting QB or a top-tier QB. I'm looking forward to the season!

I don't know if the Cowboys will be the best situation for Lance either. Dak is losing favor in Dallas and Lance needs some time to develop. Can MM develop him?

My final prediction of what the Packers will do: QB (2) - Love and Clifford (McGough/or waiver pickup on PS) RB (3) - Jones, Dillon, Taylor - Goodson and Wilson to the PS (hopefully). WR (6) - Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Toure, Heath. TE (3) - Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara - Allen to PS. Possible waiver pickup? OL (10) - Bahk, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Newman, Rhyan, Walker, Jones DL (6): Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks, Wooden, Ford. OLB (6): Gary, Smith, Van Ness, Enagbare, Holiins, and Cox ILB (5): Campbell, Walker, McDuffie, Wilson, and Carpenter CB (4): Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, Valentine. Stokes on PUP - Going light initially. Stokes returns later and backed by PS promotions, having several similarly skilled players (Ballentine, Gaines, Thomas) that are unlikely to be claimed. S (5): Savage, Ford, Owens, Johnson, Leavitt. - Moore's lack of availability dooms him. Perhaps he sticks around on the PS. ST (3): Orzech, Carlson, O'Donnell - O'Donnell makes it as a holder to give Carlson the best chance. Prediction: 24 offensive players, 26 defensive players and 3 ST. Last in: Ford and Taylor First out: Allen and Ballentine

I thought about doing one list for "what I'd do" and another for what the Packers will do. Leavitt seems like something the Packers will do. Seems like a Rich B "guy" that will make the team if healthy. RB: If they do want Taylor over Wilson, I hope they cut both and do like last year. Like you said, no one is going to grab Taylor on waivers. Open the spot for someone else and elevate them from the PS. WR: I can't see them keeping Dubose. He hasn't shown enough to prioritize him over other similar guys (that everyone has). If we lose him there will be several like him available on waivers. TE: I'm going to guess no on Allen. Another guy I can't see on the final 53. He has decent value to us, but little to others. Another 53-man elevation option. Pearson has little value to us and none anywhere else (who has FBs anymore)? DL: When the Seahawks broke a bunch of runs late in the game, Ford was getting moved around a bit. He made good plays too, but when your main purpose is to plug the middle, you can't let backup OL clear you completely out of there. He might still make it, but I'd take Cox over him (if it comes down to that). Wouldn't surprise me to see heavy DL, OL, LB with minimal TE, RB, and CB while utilizing promotions from the PS to cover those 3 spots.

3rd RB options: Taylor: 33% Wilson 33% Neither 34% I'd hang onto Wilson, but I didn't see him in there pass blocking much, so I doubt the Packers keep him over Taylor. It wouldn't shock me to see them both cut and attempt to get both on the PS to elevate them during the early season. Newman vs Rhyan. Rhyan has looked pretty decent, but I still don't see him passing Newman. Both probably make it because there are not other backup Gs. Interesting to see Runyan at C. I'm not sure I've heard him trying that before. Safety: Savage and Ford starting. Johnson makes the backup. Leavitt was a team captain today so I assume he is on the team. Owens becomes questionable but probably makes it. Moore probably gets an injury waiver or maybe they "stash" him on the IR to return later? CB: I think they simply go with four to start the season (Alexander, Douglas, Valentine, Nixon) Lots of options for the PS. Little risk of losing anyone as we have several that are pretty comparable. Stokes on the PUP gives him an automatic 5th CB later in the season. OLB: Cox made a good final statement. I'm guessing he makes the cut. DL: Ford didn't look so hot and was rather movable for such a mountain of a man. I give him 50/50 odds of making the 53 man. K: Carson had a nice day. Might be an adventure, but the position is his. At least he has a good leg. P: No idea. Both are punting well. Might come down to holding and experience vs cost and upside.

OL(9): Bakh, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Rhyan, Walker, Jones (PS - Tenuta, Empey, Telfort) I don't see them cutting Newman because that leaves Rhyan as your top G backup. And they don't tend to like shuffling two spots (i.e. moving Tom) in case of injury. As little as I think of him, we don't have many other options. Edge(5): Gary, LVN, Smith, Enagbare, Hollins (PS - Cox, Mosby) You are probably right here though. Cox is probably one of those "oh, no, we are going to lose him to waivers" players that just quietly goes on the PS. I don't think it is obvious that #2 QB is a weakness. I think Sean has been better than MANY backup QB options available this year. He has been better than any rookie QB we've had in a long time (Rodgers and Love included). I don't see any third options (that we couldn't just stash on the PS) anyway.

Good stuff. I came to writeup my final list, but we are in 90% agreement... so I'll cop out writing the whole thing and write where I differ: OL: I wasn't as impressed with the backend players and I doubt they would lose any of them. However, I can see a potential Nijman trade - especially with Walker playing well and perhaps Jones there too. TE: This will be a waiver wire priority, IMO. DL: We agree on 6, but I wanted to add that with the youth of Wyatt, Wooden, and Brooks (not to mention potential run support issues), I see Ford as important depth. OLB: I think Hollins is a lock. He has the least upside, but the most leadership at the moment. The Packers obviously favor him. All 6 make it, IMO. MLB: I hate to say it because I had high hopes, but Carpenter looks lost. Hollins at OLB over Carpenter at MLB. S: Moore has disappeared... Owen and Ford seem to be leading for the starter spot. Johnson shows enough upside to not be cut. But here is another spot for waiver wire pickups and/or late round draft pick trades. CB: SJC has made some splash plays at CB this preseason, but I don't think it keeps his job. Too many years of doing nothing... Another possible waiver wire spot? Else Kiondre Thomas is the same age, but less experience and better size.

Forget about the Minneapolis Miracle... Freeman's catch against the Vikings was a true miracle!

And yet it seems that 100% of the time we need (and/or should) beat the Twins... we get swept. Yes, I'm speaking with my heart, not my slide ruler. Honestly, the Twins still owe us for 1987, IMO. Not that I'm holding grudges at all... for a long time... for a WS victory... and we didn't even get in the playoffs... despite a better record... OK, I'm done now...

A Twins sweep is more likely. Doesn't seem to matter... we don't play the Twins well. 9-13 vs the Twins the last 5 years... 😟

Noting that OPS+ (where he is slightly below average at 94) is a positionless metric. Where WAR considers him playing at 3B (excluding Ohatani and other people that don't play 3B). His current bWAR of 0.8 in 200 PAs would mean he is about a 2.0 bWAR player for the year. Not lights out, but still a tick above average.

So donuts, obviously! 😂

I'm a huge grill/smoker guy, but I don't quite get the outdoor griddle thing. What drew you to getting a griddle?

Well, I think he is up for trade this offseason, so that would be the timeframe. Then Indy would have 2 years of Jones as a return. I would suspect that 1 year of a 30 year-old Jones (and cost) wouldn't be interesting to Indy.

Just please keep JT from the Bears or Vikings... I think I'd cry to see him in those colors. Probably wouldn't work for Salary cap reasons, but would you trade Jones for JT straight up?

I'm pretty convinced Heath is going to be the 5th WR at this point (Wicks still making the squad at 6th). He seems to have a bit more speed than Lazard... though maybe that is just watching him vs backup CBs. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get playing time this year in 3 or 4 WR sets so they can still do running plays. Safety... ouch. Neither Ford nor Owens has done much... Johnson is contributing as much as these two with much less experience. But that doesn't make him starter material yet. Seems like Moore has fallen behind and his injury isn't giving any chances of catching up. Yeah, I'm hoping Gute can pull out some old Wolf magic and trade for a starting safety for a 7th round pick. Savage/<mystery pickup>/Ford/Johnson would be "ok" this year. But still weak unless the pickup somehow comes through huge. I have fears that Wooden and Brooks turn into pumpkins in the regular season against starting OL because they can't stop the run... But still, it is encouraging to see them playing well. There is certainly some talent there.