CheezWizHed

My brain understands we shouldn't but my heart says otherwise...

Yes, there's no doubt that's how things worked out...BUT Alex Smith was bigger, a little faster and thought to have a stronger arm than Rodgers. I don't really know how everyone could have been so wrong on Rodgers arm strength...I know it got stronger with his mechanics changing early in GB, but you're comparing them after looking at how things panned out in their careers. Smith went to a team where he was beat up early, then was "salvaged" as a game manager. Rodgers was able to sit for three years and was put into a pretty good situation with Jennings, Driver, Jordy, Jones, Finley. I'm just playing devils advocate. If Rodgers has to start year one...by year 3 maybe he's been on IR once, struggled for a couple years, McCarthy and Clement are gone, maybe they even draft someone to replace him. And conversely if Smith had been able to sit and then step in to a team that was built with a lot of young talent to throw to... Like I said, I think Rodgers would still have been better, but I don't know that it would have been AS obvious as it is now. How many young QB's have we seen ruined by bad situations. Sam Donald is a perfect example. That dude can spin it...and he looks like a joke in New York. He's been given absolutely no chance to succeed. Yes, I agree that the situation means a lot. But it sounded like you were trying to spin that Smith's talent is actually equal to Rodgers, but put in a worse situation. That is the part I was debating. Several (and not just Packer fans) have stated that Rodgers is one of the most talented QBs ever (arm strength, accuracy, defense recognition, scramble ability, etc..). Thus the one SB means we wasted a lot of his talent... Who knows... maybe he would've won more with the 49ers. Similar with Eli Manning vs. Phillip Rivers: You will never make me believe the Eli Manning was the better QB. Rivers was far more talented, but his situation was terrible compared to Eil's.

Context: An article about how our draft class isn't contributing many snaps this year. It is either the article that PeavyFury wrote or plagiarized (Would they be EVEN MORE undefeated?) Holy cow. I swear that neither is true! I had to laugh... where did I just read this?

Yeah, even in a rebuild, having a talented WR on a team friendly deal seems like someone you'd want to keep. Even at 27, it isn't like a rebuild will take 4 years.

Ok, they started with the assumption of making the field goal as the base win probability. I figured they would start with win probability of the ball unsnapped, thus adding 3 points should increase the probability. Just kind of odd how they showed it.

Context: An article about how our draft class isn't contributing many snaps this year. It is either the article that PeavyFury wrote or plagiarized (Would they be EVEN MORE undefeated?)

Too bad there aren't fans at the game. That normally favors the Packers in Tampa.

I have to challenge the notion that kicking a field goal and going up 8 doesn't change their odds of winning at all. I saw the numbers posted, but it doesn't make sense. Being up 5 means the opposing team needs to score a touchdown to win. Being up 8 means the opposing team has to score a touchdown AND 2pt conversion just to TIE. How can the odds be the same? Someone is struggling with their math on that one.

Why would the Dolphins give him up?

Good catch on the number of draft picks for next year. I think they need to overturn every bush in search for DL help. People complain about Lancaster and Lowry (rightfully so), but I still can't figure out how Adams continues to make the team. Who does he have pictures of??? Even a good 2 down space-eater would be an upgrade on what we have. That shouldn't be too expensive. At WR and MLB, I'm more content with what we have. Martin will be back soon, so that should be as much of an upgrade as any trade. Perhaps with Lazard out a few more weeks we could use some help there, but I'm guessing ESB just steps in. That was one area where Ron Wolf was really good, but no GM since has been able to come close - taking late round draft picks and filling holes with useful veterans.

Yes, I do believe that situations matter, systems, QBs, coaches... but if you are really comparing Alex Smith to Aaron Rodgers as equals... something is wrong here. Alex Smith was (might still be) a good QB. More than a game manager, but not one you will ride to a SB. And he is no HOF QB. Trying to compare the two is like comparing a souped up Dodge Neon to a Lamborghini.

Regardless of current talent on the roster, if you can "buy" a top-100 prospect I think you have to try. We emptied the farm with trades over the last few years and this is one way to buy a 1st round draft pick. And one that is less risk since he would be already at AA or AAA equivalent competition.

Or if only Alex Smith had fallen instead of Rodgers...

Without the behind the scenes view we will never know what intel they had. History does show that people that trade up often have a tendency to lose out because busts happen. As long as it isn't happening often, I don't sweat it. Going backwards, then forwards to draft Alexander gives a lot of credibility in knowing whom to go after in my book.

So if you wanted to compare a team with WR talent and a poor OL to a team with good OL and shallow WR talent, I think the Packer/Vikings comparison shows how a strong OL elevates those around them. Now, of course, you want both... But I think the Vikings would've been better off drafting an OL instead of Jefferson. Personally, I feel bad for Cousins. I like they guy, but he has his flaws. The Vikings are paying a good QB excellent-QB money and it is killing them.

I think the 2020 draft was a bit frustrating because we all wanted someone to impact right away. But I think it is clear they got a LOT of value for the future. Even if Love is a clipboard holding QB for the next 2 years, how many times has the lack of a backup QB burned us? Not to mention that while Rodgers said he wants to play into his 40s, that doesn't mean his body will agree. I'm sure Dak thought he'd be playing next week. Even if drafting Love simply churned Rodger's competitive fires, it was worth the pick. Also, while we do have holes (WR and DL most notably), many of our rookies are sitting because we did have depth - legit depth - that they couldn't overcome. Dillon needed a good pre-season to show he could handle the blitz pickup as well as Williams. I think he has shown himself (in a very small sample) to be the better runner, but if he hasn't proven himself to protect Rodgers, he won't get much time behind both Jones and Williams. But I doubt that both of them will stay healthy the whole year (hopefully nothing serious), so I'm sure Dillon will get more looks in future games. I'm not sure what to make about Deguara. I hated the pick at the time, but he is growing on me. Unfortunately, he only really played one game, but it is obvious that the team likes him. He was everywhere in that first game; making a lot of key blocks. Unfortunately, we won't get to see more until next year...and probably off the PUP even then. If Martin can stay healthy, I think he will be the steal of our draft. Though Barnes might take that also. I still don't understand how we got Runyan in the 6th round, either. He is another guy that could've moved up the depth chain with a strong pre-season. I would also expect to see him again this year. Just in general, we are seeing our second and third year players really step up this year. The draft players are generally being relegated to depth. That doesn't mean the draft was bad...just that we were more focused on building for the future than this year; frustrating as that may be now.

Do analytics take into account...the Vikings? But if the Seahawks were going to win, that was the perfect way to see the Vikings lose. Russel Wilson reminds me of Favre in many ways. He can make a bone-headed play to take them out of the game (i.e. his interception), but if you give him another chance, he can carry the team, too.

Nobody is going to trade for Manny Pina. He's had some memorable hits/homers for the Brewers over the years, but they've been trying to replace him for 2 seasons. Additionally, Pina will turn 34 next year, not an age where the majority of catchers continue to thrive. Meanwhile Narvaez is 28 and Nottingham is 25. Finally, Pina will seek a raise from his 1.8 million dollar salary in 2020. On a team that is likely to proceed as if "strapped for cash" he's likely to be non-tendered. Erik Kratz says "hi". But seriously, he has been a decent hitter and good defensive catcher. I'm not expecting a massive prospect haul in return, but with a bit of a logjam, we might find some taker. As for replacing him... Yaz fell into our laps two years ago; I'm not sure we really searched that one out. And this year, I think the intent of Narvaez was to tandem with Pina all along; even if Naraez had hit like his usual.

How do you tell the difference between "trying" to locate pitches vs. "not trying"?

I wonder if Pina might be a trade piece this year?

I'm not so sure about that. The Packers will put up more points and yards overall than the Lions, so even if he is lower on the pecking order, there is plenty opportunity for Tonyan to average 40-50 yds/game (around what both he and Hock are averaging now). Hock may put up a few more yards, but I'd guess Tonyan is going to have a bigger TD margin (and thus more FF points). Consider that Stafford is on pace for 32 TD this year. Rodgers is on pace for 52. The real question is why the guy cutting Hock didn't have room for both.

The only positive thing to happen to the Jets since Broadway Joe...

Personally, I liked his enthusiasm on strike-outs and energy behind the plate. But I'm guessing that isn't what you are referring to...

In the midst of 2019, there were a lot of people calling Burnes a bust and questioning his mental fortitude. Few even wanted him tried in the rotation this year, despite his ST results. I wasn't expecting this big of turn-around, but I've been beating the rebound drum for the last year. I see Peralta and Hauser as very similar pitchers honestly. They are borderline SPs with good stuff, yet too inconsistent to stick. Both of them should compete to be a starter next year, but neither deserve to have it handed to them. Hopefully, some time at pitching school will help both of them.

Still would've preferred a Bears loss there, but I will enjoy the loss of memory jokes that will come with old-man Brady forgetting that it was 4th down.