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brewerguy71

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Everything posted by brewerguy71

  1. brewerguy71
    I would love to have Lindor with that 12th pick, but also agree that he will be long gone by then. I dont think they would have to worry about Bell "falling" to them at 15, as that would be a slight overdraft for him at that pick. If the draft were today, I would say a draft of Trevor Bauer at 12 and Jason Esposito at the 15th would be a nice draft. Although there is depth, I dont see a ton of big time huge talent after the 10th pick or so.
  2. brewerguy71
    Chapman probably isnt ready yet to be an mlb starting pitcher because of his changeup issues. Its a smart developmental move for the Reds to use him in the pen this year, for the sake of the franchise and its playoff chances. The other alternative is to send him back to AAA this year, stretch him out and next year he becomes a mid rotation starter and by year 3, he is their #1. But he can make a big contribution this year as a closer/8th inning guy, and simply turn him into a starter next year. The Reds should be very competitive for the next 2 years or so, so delaying Chapman in the rotation shouldnt be a major loss for the Reds.
  3. brewerguy71
    I dont think the expectations for the team are generally too high. If your expectation is that they will compete and have an outside shot at the division, then you are with the consensus. Even though the offense of this year's Brewers wont be as ineffective as last year's Mariners, it wont be as good as it was the past few years. McGehee, Hart and Weeks probably wont produce as they did last year, and those two things; along with a questionable bullpen, will be the things that will ultimately keep them out of this year's playoffs.
  4. brewerguy71
    This is the best post on the entire thread. I agree completely that he has done a good job at turning them into a contender, but in the end believe that they are about 2 or 3 wins away from a playoff spot. And for what? Playoff run this year is the only acceptable outcome given what DM has done to the farm system, anything short of that is a big failure on his part.
  5. brewerguy71
    Breakout: Not a lot of candidates here, but Lucroy becoming more solid at the plate should help as well as continuing to refine his defensive skills. Disappointment(s): Four big ones I can think of. Expectations will be big for all 4 of these guys I and see them all falling very short....Axford walks too many and saves some games and strikes guys out, but in the end doesnt turn into a upper division closer....Weeks although playing solid baseball, his swing and miss rates continue to rise and he comes no where near his 6 WAR season last year. Hart falls back to earth and McGehee's clock strikes midnight and plays to the level of his skills.
  6. brewerguy71
    I went with 86 as well, but that could get closer to 90. Depending on what some of the projection systems think coming into the year, Marcum and Weeks' seasons/projections could boost that number for me. McGehee as well.
  7. brewerguy71
    Ive got them in the 86 plus or minus 3 range myself. I can easily see the drop in runs scored happening as well. Cards shouldnt be as good, and the Reds will hold the keys to the division.
  8. brewerguy71
    If the Brewers took Lindor in the '11 draft, it would be the best first round pick in 5 years.
  9. brewerguy71
    www.fangraphs.com Look under leaders, various tabs.....
  10. brewerguy71
    If any of these mocks are remotely true, there is going to be massive disappointment over the Brewers first round pick this year. Castellanos: Wont have the power to be a third baseman. Harvey: Winds up in the bullpen or injured Wojciehowski: Bullpen guy as well Biddle: No reason in the world that this kid should be drafted in the 1st round. Decent college arms and big upside high school pitchers will probably be available when they pick, but I bet the Brewers will go with what they always have and take the one guy with the big huge one tool and hope for the best, ignoring completely that the more rounded player is a better bet. Guys like Workman and McGuire, Allie, Cole and Covey, and bats like Colon, Grandal and Cabrera all being over looked for the flavor of the week.
  11. brewerguy71
    If the Brewers wind up taking any of the players at the pre-draft workout list given by colby, it will wind up being the worst first round pick since JM Gold for this franchise. Not ONE of the players on that list is first round worthy. I would have no problem with them taking any of these players after the 4th round, but not round one. All I can say is that I hope they have their #1 pick all locked up in their minds and didnt need to see them in a work out. If not, its really time for Mark Attanasio to make full scale changes in the front office.
  12. brewerguy71
    Colby, must have me confused with someone else. Ive never advocated them taking Harvey for the same reasons as you. Big mechanical issues, future injury risk, top upside is in bullpen etc. I'm going to stick with the HS guys this year, and Cole is my guy. I dont mind Workman or Wimmers, but feel they are only #3 starters at best. Solid picks, but if you have such a high draft pick like that why not go for the player that profiles as a #1? Heck, if the team keeps playing the way it has this year, maybe I will get my wish next year in Gerrit Cole.
  13. brewerguy71
    Great, look for the guy with a big injury history or bottom of the rotation as the upside.
  14. brewerguy71
    I am no fan of Harvey or Wojceihowski. I am ok with the other players on those Mock Drafts, but my issue is that there is an opportunity cost of capital here that the Brewers would miss out on if they took any one of those players. If some of the Mock's turn out to be true, or if any of them are, who knows? There is going to be a high impact HS arm available to the Brewers thie year at the #14 spot and one of them should be their pick. I dont think Castellanos is going to be a good major leaguer. He may hit, but his power potential is questionable expecially for 3B. Sale's is a nice player as well, but the team must be planning on trading either he or Lawrie if they make that pick. And if youre going to go with Choice, why not go with Austin Wilson instead? The Stanford commitment is something the Brewers cant deal with, but I'd take Wilson over Choice in a heartbeat. One player that I have not seen linked with the team that makes sense is Justin O'Conner. He would be a great (typical 10 spots too early) pick for the Brewers this year.
  15. brewerguy71
    12 games under .500 by the end of the month. Lose every series except the last 2. The pitching is still bad.
  16. brewerguy71
    I would have to say that of your list of 10 players, Colon is the only realistic choice. Cox, both Sale's, McGuire and Choice will be long gone by the time the Brewers pick. And I wouldnt take Chris Sale with a 10 foot pole given the fact that the Brewers will mess with his delivery and cause injury, if he doesnt injure it on his own due to delivery concerns. Wilson has a firm committment to Stanford and the Brewers arent the team that will pull him away from that. Ranaudo and Harvey are both injury risks and if you take Whitson, why not take a higher upside arm like Cole or Cowart first? I dont mind them taking Colon, but he may not be around at their pick, and they really need pitching more than anything. AJ Cole is my pick.
  17. brewerguy71
    Ugh! The last thing the Brewers need in their farm system is another bat. They need pitching plain and simple. And not a safe pick like Workman, they need an impact arm. There is not one impact arm in the entire farm system. They have one questionable one in Odirizzi and thats it. If one of the big HS arms falls to them, for WHATEVER reason, thats the pick they need to make, whether it be Covey, Cole or even Whitson.
  18. brewerguy71
    Katin is an AAAA player. The fact that he is 27 and in his 3rd go round in AAA is evidence of that.
  19. brewerguy71
    Lawrie doesnt really have the mobility for 2b either, or the glove, or footwork. When all is said and done, Lawrie will most likely be headed for RF. He's still at least 2 years away from MLB playing time. As for the Green/Gamel comparison, Green is probably better defensively, but his bat doesnt have as much upside as Gamel's has or had. Dont forget that although he's having a nice start, Green is also repeating a level he has already played.and is in his 5th season of minor league ball. E.g. I wouldnt read too much into his numbers at this point. If his power comes back and he keeps the strikeouts down and the walks up, hes probably a candidate for the roster in 2011.
  20. brewerguy71
    If the main goal of your franchise is to sell tickets, as Rick Schlesinger has been on record a lot recently as the goal of the Brewers, then yes this model fails for both the Marlins and would for the Brewers. Time will tell if the actual goal is to build a winner. I know that Mark A wants to create that illusion by signing free agents like Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf, but fans will stop showing up when the strategy of building "success" by siging, and overpaying, free agents fails. But I could care less how well te team draws if they are competitive year in and year out. Heck, the Marlins have been profitable, so there wouldnt be a fear of the team going bankrupt or moving, so imo, if the Brewers followed the Marlins model for building and reshaping a team, and it works in the W-L column, works for me.
  21. brewerguy71
    The Marlins are also in the midst of building a new stadium, while fielding a very competitive team consistently. I have no problem with the way they spend their money. I would love to see the Brewers utilize that philosophy instead ot trying the tired old "sign free agents" route (which doesnt really work anyway).
  22. brewerguy71
    The Brewers are probably about 3 games better overall than they were last year. BP had them at a Pythagorean W-L of 74-88. Take away two wins on offense and add 5 for pitching and thats how you get to that 77 win range. I have them at 83 wins and 4th place. Brewer fans love the upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen, but neither are all that special. Wolf and Davis project as .500 pitchers and the bullpen, which was league average last year takes a bit of a hit when you get the regression from Coffey and Hoffman, and Hawkins being a net zero contributor.
  23. brewerguy71
    Braddock probably should spend another half season in Huntsville, with a possible call up date in September. He's had a good spring, but lets not go crazy here. He's had 12 appearances in AA that werent all that spectacular. He needs a bit more seasoning before being crowned "the next big thing."
  24. brewerguy71
    2007: 83-79 (actual) 83-79 (Pythagorean) 0 change 2008: 90-72 (actual) 87-75 (Pythagorean) +32009: 80-82 (actual) 78-84 (Pythagorean) +2 I was talking about 3rd order Pythagorean, from Baseball Prospectus. I find that number to be more accurate than the simple one calculated on baseball reference.
  25. brewerguy71
    Why would the Sox, who already awash in starting pitching, trade anything for Suppan? I cant see any team out there offering up more than a bag of balls for him. He is going to be made available to any team for nothing in a few days. Just like it was with Vargas a few years ago, everyone knows they have to drop a pitcher, so if they want one of them, Suppan included, they will wait until he is released. Lowell is projected for a 2.5 WAR year by Pecota, Suppan -0.1. Bad contracts aside, the Sox arent in the position they are because of making ridiculous trades.
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