brewerguy71

No. Theyre a .500 team. The starting pitching wont hold up for them to make a run and the 2 man offense isnt enough to make up for that mediocre pitching. They have the "illusion" of still being close. Even with the "soft" schedule this month (since they are really only a .500 team it isnt really that soft at all), the September will remove all doubt. They would have to play 6 games better from here on out than the Cards and or Cubs. They just dont have the talent to pull it off this year.

I wonder if it was Purke. Man would I love to see that kid in a Brewer uniform some day.

"Your going to need to explain that one" Arnett is a heel banger and is poised for injury down the road. I also do not believe his changeup will play in professional ball. He is a prototypical back of the bullpen reliever. Hard, plus slider and big time velociy on his fastball. I see him as a reliever in pro ball if he stays healthy. You are right about Oliver, but I see him a lot like a Left handed version of Rich Harden. In my book changing speeds is just as important as a plus or above average Curve/Slider. I think he will be fine. He also does a great job of going up and down the ladder and using both sides of the plate. The fact that Goodwin and Washington are Boras clients is something I was not aware of, but seeing as how they wont be first or 2nd rounders, I dont see them as having tremendous leverage. I dont think Washington is going to bypass any respectable offer. And then Poythress vs Kraus, yes Kraus hit those HRs in the MAC. Only about a quarter of those HR came against Friday night starters. The numbers are about the same for Poythress, but he was facing much better competition week in and week out. I think they will both hit, with Poythress being like a Lyle Overbay type of player, but Kraus is going to wind up being a Left Fielder and without the power, he doesnt have as much value. Not to say either of us are wrong or right, we have different philosophies.

Jared Mitchell, Tony Sanchez or Andrew Oliver for me.

As I am relatively new to this board, I cannot comment on X's skill in predicting/wishing the Brewers pick their guy, but I have to say that not one of those 6 players interest me at all for the Brewers. I am not a fan at all of taking college closers in the top 5 rounds, and Arnett and Heckathorn both profile as relievers in pro ball. With the system being weak in pitching and the sheer lack of top shelf talent among its arms AA or above, I too feel college arms are the way to go, but feel that starters will make better picks. Kraus is a nice player, but I dont see him being more than a 4th OF in the majors, unless he can develop some power, which there is a question about. There is a lot of dreaming in the guys you pick, but just a little too risky for the Brewers in my opinion. For that first pick I wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers select James Paxton or Andrew Oliver, Chad James or Chad Jenkins would be nice picks here as well, but they will both probably be gone. I would also be happy with Jared Mitchell or Tony Sanchez with the 26th pick (thats only if the Pirates dont completely lose their minds and take Sanchez 4th). For the supplemental picks I would shoot for one arm and one bat. Rich Poythress would be a great pick at 39 if he were available and if he is gone, they can take Jeff Malm in the 2nd round or with that 47th pick. Brody Colvin, Madison Younginger or Victor Black are all nice options here or at one of the 2nd round picks. And if they didnt pick up Mitchell at 26, I feel that a CF would be a wise pick somewhere in the 2 to 3 round area, a guy like Levon Washington or Brian Goodwin would be nice selections.

Oh I completely agree. I personally feel he is the best player in the state of Wisconsin this year. I think they (BA) have dropped the ball on him. The other thing that I do not get is this kid from Oak Creek that is home schooled. He definitely has some nice stuff, but I am very skeptical of a player like him.

I have seen Schreiber as well. I agree that he has pretty nice stuff for a High School pitcher, the reality of the matter is that he needs quite a bit of polish still. When a scout goes to see a kid like Schreiber pitch, they could care less about how he hits. Its a nice bonus to his team if he can hit. He is obviously a good athlete as well, which is a plus for him when looking at the whole picture. And the thing about the FVA is kind of irrelevant. The best teams and conferences in Wisconsin dont really measure up on the national stage. He will be a first team all state player. I just dont think he is ready yet for professional baseball. He should go to Purdue, work on his game, and in 3 years if he has dramatically improved himself, then he will get his shot at pro ball.

I would take him at #26 in a second. But not without an MRI. His best course of action is to sign late (not that he will have any choice) and not pitch until Winter Ball. I see him having a similar draft year as Brian Matusz. If there is no structural damage, and no surgery needed, he will be just fine with some rest.

I was little surprised by BA's list when it came out...that Schrieber was not on it, along with a couple of other players. But when it comes to Schreiber, I just dont think his stuff is there yet. He needs quite a lot of work I think and that is what is what will probably keep him from being drafted. I think even without the Purdue committment, he would have been drafted very late if at all.

Oh crap, and I just noticed that wast he 2008 list. 2009 will be released soon. Sorry for getting ahead of myself, while being behind at the same time.

BA posted its Wisconsin Draft list and neither James nor Markson are on it. Then again, neither are Effertz, Dott or Greskiewitz. Here is their list: Adam Frost, St. Norbert Schrieber Cody Kaback, SPASH Kyle Barry, MaTC Doug Coe, UWSP And of those players none are expected to go in the first 10 rounds.

He's definitely a player worth looking at, but not in the first round. If he were available in the 2nd round I would have no problem with the Brewers taking him there. He has a plus fastball and a solid build, but has control issues. At this point he only has the one pitch though. His curvevall, if contained is a possible plus pitch as well. There will be pitchers available at #26 that would be better picks than this kid. Not to say he isnt a worthwhile pursuit, but not in round 1.

Bailey would be a tremendous risk for the Brewers at #26. He will go top 5 rounds still, but his injury killed his prospects of going in the first round. If the Brewers needed/wanted to take a catcher at that pick, Stassi will maybe be available and is a safer pick. If Bailey were around in the 3rd round still when the Brewers pick it wouldnt be an awful choice.

Stock is probably a 4th or 5th round pick. He profiles as a bottom of the rotation type of starter (Dave Bush type). If hes available, its worth a look to take him. Im more intrigued by his offensive slip than the pitching. If he could return to his pre 2007 form, he is steal as a catcher.

Thank you for the update on James, Colby. I work more on the college end of things and did not hear about the showing in IA. He was definitely someone to look at preseason, but sounds like he has made some good strides. I know that a one time showing at a showcase can do wonders for a players stock. For me, I prefer to see them play in game action, and as you metion WI does not have the best reputation as being a draft prospect hotbed. Add to it that Whitefish Bay plays summer ball, he doesnt have a very big window for some scouts to take a look. Nonetheless, it is nice to hear that an area player is shooting up draft boards if this is truly the case.

I doubt that James will be a top 5 round pick. If anything a top20 or even 30 round pick. The talent is not very deep this year in the state. The top prospect by far is Joel Effertz from Ladysmith and then a notch below him there is also Chase Graskeiwicz from Hudson ansd Brad Schreiber from Kimberly. College wise there is Aaron Dott of UW Whitewater. Beyond that there are a few players here and there who could get picked up, but nothing of note.

Its always interesting to see what certain mock drafts think, but there isnt any way that Jacob Turner falls to the Brewers. A couple of other things about the video, I dont think Grant Green falls to 15... Other than that it seems like an ok mock draft.

Of the list you posted, I am not very thrilled with any of those players. If I had to choose one of them, I would go with Heckathorn. he would be the safest pick of those listed. I am not too thrilled with the fact that he will probably be a bullpen guy, and feel that it is a waste to take a player like that with such a high pick. I am starting to fall in love with Jared Mitchell and feel that he would be an excellent choice for the Brewers in the first round. I also would be happy with Max Stassi. For the Supplemental pick, if available, I would like to see them take Jiovanni Mier, but he probably may not be available by then. And I think that Wilson will be available for them in the 2nd, if not even the third round. Kendal Volz is a guy I would also like to see them pick up if they have the opportunity in the 3rd or 4th rounds.

81.5 is a perfect number for this Brewer team. I would go over on the Blue Jays and Royals and under on the Tigers. The Brewers are no where near a 90 win team. Gallardo will be lucky to get 12 wins this year and lucky to get 175+ innings. Dont forget that that part of the record before CC's arrival had Sheets in there who went 10-2 during that span. Its way overly optimistic to expect Gallardo to do the same. Dont forget that Suppan is more likely to regress than he is to get better so thats a couple of games at least as well. Regressions by Cameron and Kendall will also play big parts. No closer will hurt as well. And no improvement in team approach to OBP and the offense does exactly the same thing it has done the last few years. Its a semi-rebuilding year for this team. Conventional wisdom, and objectivity say the Brewers are mid level team in the division and will barely play .500 ball.

Bronson Arroyo has a track record to stand on as well. I am not expecting him to win the Cy Young this year, but I would be more surprised if Gallardo won it than if Arroyo won it. Lets face it, Arroyo is a workhorse. He puts up the big innings, doesnt miss starts. And he always seems to get a lot of run support. I know its late in the game for him, but if he cuts down on the walks a little and the Reds dont blow a game for him in the bullpen here and there, and the Reds will probably have a better runs scored vs runs against this year, and he could be a high teens winner. Maybe he even becomes a guy who goes 17-9 or so. That would be a record that is better than expected this year for Gallardo. Any guy who wins the Cy Young is pitching at their peak performance that year, or so you would think. Granted, Gallardo's projections are a little off because of time missed for injuries, but at a 90% percentile of expected performance (according to Baseball Prospectus) Gallardo has a 6.9 WARP, 49 VORP, 12-6 3.14 ERA 162 K vs Arroyos numbers of 6.7 WARP, 50.2 VORP, 13-8 3.42 ERA 152 K's. If BP is right, which a lot of times they are pretty close, Arroyo is the better pitcher (right now).

He picked Erik Bedard to win the AL Cy Young last year.

I think Escobar batting 8th in the Brewer lineup, with his defense, would work out just fine. I agree that his bat needs to develop some in AAA this year, but those projections, to go along with his defense would definitely improve the Brewers. He definitely would make this years pitching staff better than what it is projected to be right now.

The problem with this statement is that it goes against what has been said already about Escobar's statement and maximizing value. Escobar is going to be the starting SS for this team by 2010, unless he dies sometime between now and opening day 2010. The only thing that will stop that is a complete offensive flop this year in AAA by Escobar. And the reason for this, and a Hardy trade, will be that it maximizes value for the team. Hardy is at his peak right now (i.e. it is very unlikely that he will get better) so trading him after Escobar gets some seasoning in AAA returns major value for the team. Whether it is a MLB ready #2 starting pitcher or pieces to add pitching depth at the higher levels of the organization, it really doesnt matter. Long term, Hardy moving is the best thing for the organization. This Brewer team doesnt need more offense, it needs defense, pitching and OBP guys. Hardy is expendable when looked at in that light. Escobar adds much improved and much needed defense at the most important defensive position in the infield, and a Hardy trade brings pitching. And I didnt even touch on the financial issue of moving Hardy making the team better.

A couple of years ago Jaramillo was their top catching prospect, but he had fallen out of favor with the organization the last two years. When the Phillies found out that his bat wasnt going to be as good as they thought it was going to be, they went with Chris Coste as their backup to Calros Ruiz, Jaramillo was stuck in AAA for two years. If he had been able to show a bit more power he could have been their starting Catcher last year. As time went on Lou Marson quickly surpassed him on the organiztional depth chart because of his bat, and when Travis D'Arnoud began to emerge as a good hitting and good fielding catcher, Jaramillo became expendable. Jaramillo should be a very servicable back up for the Pirates to give Doumit a rest, but if he has an injury, it would be a lot like the Brewers having Rivera being the starter for an extended period of time.

I think the debate is Nelson vs Gwynn and Lamb vs McGehee. I am not a huge fan of Gwynn, but having another big swing/big strikeout guy coming off the bench late in the game vs a contact hitter with speed is a no brainer. Most times when it comes to a pinch hit situation, you just need to get a guy on base. Sure Milwaukee and Brewer fans love the HR, the organization has built up a loyal fan base based solely on that fact. But I do not think Nelson can have a large impact on this team, nor any really that wants to contend, and losing him through waivers is no great loss. Now Gwynn doesnt add much either, but his speed and potential for defensive versatility adds something. PECTOTA doesnt regard either player favorably, but speed and defensive ability are more important in my book than the power of yet another solid block of stone. And in the case of Lamb vs McGehee, again PECOTA doesnt rate either favorably but Lamb's lefthanded bat and experience go a heck of a lot farther than McGehee's "youth" and "spirit" shown this spring. Granted McGehee brings better defense but the only way he gets to play is if Hall gets hurt or needs a day off, and if he does play he doesnt project offensively at all. At least Lamb will give you that left handed bat for a platoon every once in a while, play well enough defensively and give at least replacement level offense. If a trade has to be made, maybe McGehee's spring can fool some team into believing that there is worth there to be had.