brewerguy71
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Everything posted by brewerguy71
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Actually, for the past 3 years or so, the Brewers have had a lot of things go right for them. They have had one major injury issue each of the past few years its true, but they have exceeded their Pythagorean W-L record by about 5 wins each of the past 3 seasons. I would call that overachieving, or things breaking the right way. Ive already predicted an 83-79 record, fair team, wont really be in it by end of August, but 94 wins, with the pitching staff they have on hand, as well as the offense, is a very huge optimism, imo.
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83-79 4th place behind the Reds, Cubs and Cardinals. Offense will be worse by 2 wins, pitching better by 5. Randy Wolf will be a major disappointment and only be a .500 pitcher, as his luck and FB/HR rates will kill him in Miller Park.
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Eli Dukes released by Washington
brewerguy71 replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He would fit right in in Milwaukee's inner city. I say the Brewers should sign him up, buy him an apartment on 35th and Center, and youve got yourself an instant RF who is better than most of the OF in place. He'd be in his element, and happy to pursue his career. -
I've got Howard at about $3.7 million in surplus value, or about an extra win (not vs Pujols of course). Phillies would have to throw in a guy like JA Happ maybe to even it out. But Howard/Brown isnt too far off of what it would take for Pujols.
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Pujols' surplus value is up there, probably top 10 in the league, but it wouldnt require a TON to get him. Sure, there is always a premium paid in a deal like this. I'd guess Howard's surplus value is about half of Pujols', meaining that if they did want to do this deal they could throw in Dominic Brown and that would be pretty fair to both sides.
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Red Sox' top prospect to have brain surgery
brewerguy71 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Westmoreland is a top 30 prospect in the game, Lawrie top 60. A bit of a difference there. Regardless, just shocking news. If he is able to play ball again it will be nothing short of a miracle. Best wishes to him. -
Doug Davis
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This is a private comment I made to TooLiveBrew regarding his statements about Theo Epstein, to which he replied I should put in the thread: Saw your post about overrating Theo. I personally think that his approach to player development and scouting has helped earn him the rep as one of the best in the game. He's running the Red Sox like a small market team and thats part of their success. Its only going to get better for them at this pace. I think that if the Brewers spent on player development and scouting the way the Sox did, they wouldnt have to waste money on Free Agents like Randy Wolf or Doug Davis. Dont forget that their farm system ranks as one of the best in baseball. They sign kids that no one else wants to draft and proves the world wrong. And I personally dont think signign bonuses should be an issue there, since all of the teams are now dishing ot big money for draft picks. I thought the Brewers should have picked Casey Kelly back in 08 and his asking price wasnt that much higher than Lawrie and in the end he would have wound up helping the team more than the latter.
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I dont think that the team the Brewers would possibly trade Fielder to would necessarily resign him when he becomes a free agent. Much like the Braves did with Teixeira, if the Brewers dealt him this year at the deadline to a team trying to make a playoff push, the receiving team might turn right around and deal him again next offseason. I believe that the Rays, Rangers and A's are all good candidates to (if in contention) make a deal for Fielder, hopefully get that team far in the playoffs, and then turn right around and deal him for nearly what is lost in a trade with the Brewers. The Rays for instance could offer up a deal something like Reid Brignac (who has fallen out of favor in TB and is blocked and has a higher rated prospect behind him), Matt Moore, Alex Colome and Nick Barnese. If the Rays had a middle of the lineup with Fielder, Longoria and Pena to go with the pitching they had, the Yankees would have to spend another $600 million to get to the World Series in 2012. Rays then turn around and deal Fielder in next years offseason and still get 2 or 3 very nice prospects in return just like the A's did when they sent Matt Holliday to the Cards. I personally do not believe it is good business sense for the Brewers to lock up Fielder long term, and it makes even worse business sense not to trade him by July 31 this year.
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I dont think any of the pitchers you mention having a "nice year" would help make the FO's decision on whether or not to offer Fielder a long term deal. Not one of them is going to be the type of pitcher that is going to have a major impact on the team, so much so that they wouldnt have to go find pitching outside of the organization. The more I think about this offer that is potentially being put together, the less I think that Melvin or Attanasio knows about running a major league baseball team. Paying one player over $20 million to get you about 4 more wins a year makes no sense at all, especially for a small market team like the Brewers, when trading him can get you 4 guys, who are virtually free, and bring you 12 extra wins. If they do in fact pull this off, Attanasio will lose lots of money for a few years and the team wont be any better than it is now.
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Although I do think that the Rangers are actually a good destination in a 2010 trade for Prince Fielder, they arent going to get Justin Smoak in return for him alone, much less 2 or 3 more players. Smoak alone is almost more valuable than Fielder is. Fielder is worth about $35 million or so in surplus value if he went right now. Smoak is worth about $32.5 million. If they are going to follow the mold made by the Teixiera trade to the Braves, which is the smartest move (not necessarily the move Melvin will make) they need to think of players that are in A ball right now with high ceilings. And by taking that route they can get both quantity and quality for the 2012 season in mind. If the were to get, say, 3 A ball prospects and a position player in return for Fielder, they could trade 4 WAR for 4 players producing 10 WAR, the math is simple and logic clear as to why they need to do a trade. They of course need to focus on pitching in any trade. I wouldnt put too much stock in the pitching in the lower levels of the Brewer system as this time.
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Fielder may not even have a choice if that is what happens, the organization will decide for him by sending him packing. If the pitching surprises and keeps them in the hunt this year they might want to hold onto him for the duration of the season, but if theres a repeat of '09 they have to move him. Better to have a package of guys with upside potential and high ceilings than an expensive player entering their plateau years.
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Actually, its the taxpayers of the 5 counties that are the biggest players in Miller Park being built. If anything, they should burn Selig in effigy in front of the park on a daily basis. He held the city hostage pleading for a new stadium, knowing full well that if it were built, he would triple the value of the franchise he and his family so miserly ran into the ground.
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I wouldnt be shocked to see a move like Teixiera had where he went to one team for a playoff push, and then was traded a 2nd time to another team. One team that might be a nice fit, if they needed a big push for the playoffs would be the Rays, who would then deal him during next offseason. I could see the A's or Rangers making that first move as well, with the 2nd trade going to a more traditional, large market club. All 3 of those teams have plenty of young, prospect pitching that could be of great help to the farm system.
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Reds fans probably thought the same thing back in 2000 when they signed Ken Griffey Jr to a big free agent contract. But the "best" thing that it did was cripple the franchise financially for years and prevent them from fielding a competitive team. The article doesnt really seem to say too much. Fielder, smartly, is keeping a low profile about the whole thing. Reality of the matter is that if the team is anywhere near what Pecota has projected for the Brewers on July 31, 2010, Fielder will probably be dealt to a team in contention for a very nice, farm system revitalizing, prospect laden deal.
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It wasnt so much a comparison of pitching styles as to how they were acquired. I can see Wolf putting up a 2 win advantage type of season which isnt bad. But his k rate isnt extremely huge, add in his ok walk rate, lots of contact being made there. I just dont think its a good recipe for Miller Park. Look at some of his HR rates when a Philly. MP isnt as homer friendly, but its not horribly far off.
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Fly Ball/ HR pitcher going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to hitter friendly Miller Park. Also, Huge BABIP bonus coming down to earth.
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Its a pretty low estimate, but not completely out of the question. Wolf could be Looper 2.0 and then there is the bottom 3/5ths of the rotation that isnt horribly promising.
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I was JUST wondering about JD Salinger yesterday and the response if and when he passed away. Wow. Catcher in the Rye is one of the best baseball books I have ever read.
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Braun's defense Ive heard was one of the worst defensive seasons ever that year. But if he had played a 162 game season, his WAR would have been 4.7. Very impressive, but still below that of Tulowitzki's. My impression is that the article isnt necessaarily focusing on the one vote, but on a comparison of the two players' pro careers to date.
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Will probably be next year with Roberto Alomar, when he gets elected to the HOF.
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DPOY? I get the sense that the debate begins in 07, but continues today. At least according to the article.
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I used to see the author of the linked piece post over on the MLB site quite often, but has since disappeared. The guy makes the case that based on WAR and various other metrics, that Troy Tulowitzki is better than Ryan Braun, or at the very least very similar as far as value goes. Posting it for informational purposes: http://www.beyondtheboxsc...tulowitzki-vs-ryan-braun
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Reds sign Aroldis Chapman, 5 years $30 million
brewerguy71 replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Baker will be gone by the time this kid is a major leaguer. Its a big sum for sure, but since he is an FA, probably worth it to take. Id be willing to bet he starts the year in AA and see where he goes from there. He would have been picked ahead of Strasburg if he was part of the college draft this past year. -
Hardy and Hart's futures with the team
brewerguy71 replied to T B0NE 10's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
....Should have traded Hardy in the offseason like I had thought. His value is far less in this year's offseason than it would have been last. At best they get a #3 starter for him.
