biedergb

Anyone know of a quick way to find the MLB prospect videos for Brewer prospects? The videos like this that are prospect profiles, not the highlights videos. They used to be easy to find on MLB.com Prospect ranking page, but now they have so many in season highlights it is harder to scan through?

Interesting, as Baseball America has him signing with the Rangers

I do like the position player depth in the minors. At 1B - we have Black, Wilken E. Martinez and Adams. Middle IF - Turang, Zamora, Brown Jr,, Boeve, Baez, Pratt 3B - Wilken, Boeve, Bitonti, Pratt So like 10-12 players for the IF position at multiple levels. If 3-4 can become regulars that is great to go along with the OF depth.

Wow. Flashbacks. I remember the BF.net top prospect lists. I also remember that 2014 list and thinking that the top 10 mid season was pretty good. Oof It just goes to show that prospect evaluation is subjective and that “predictions are hard; especially about the future.”

I thought Baez as a SS was already over - didn't he play 3B and 2B toward the end of the season? Also - did I imagine it, or was there some discussion of moving him to OF? (Maybe do to glut of middle IF?) either way, his bat will carry him, and if he continues to hit as he moves up the minors, he will find a position. Pratt - way too early to tell, but his draft comparison was Gunnar Henderson IIRC, and that portends to a favorable chance of being a SS long term. But he could also move later, but it will be 2-3 years to sort out. Good problems to have - having multiple players are multiple positions who carry a prospect title, with some reasonable chance of being a MLB player. Very deep prospect pool right now, as well as the high end talent. Probably need to find another pitcher or 2, and another SS and another impact bat in the minors (via trade, 2024 draft) to keep this as a top 10 organization for prospects over the next year given the likely graduation of Chourio, Quero, Black and Gasser in 2024.

Does that impact the bonus pool? They will get the bonus pool for a 17th overall pick, and not the original slot (20), correct?

I think the challenge with Woodruff is that there is no guarantee he returns to form. ‘The Brewers are unlikely to make a commitment to someone who will remain a question mark. Another team with more tolerance for risk will sign him to that type of contract, but the Brewers can not. Sadly.

This team is not valuing some prospects very well. For an average bullpen arm (who did poorly on top of it) they sent prospect Reece Olson, who could have been a 2024 rotation option. Ditto in 2022 with Antoine Kelly who could be a high leverage RP, granted for a bigger piece, who in retrospect failed miserably with this club. Now a utility player for Jace Alina. This FO has not missed badly on prospects traded, but has missed some which is normal and acceptable, but sometimes the return is very low, and I don’t understand moving on from a prospect who has serious value in some corners (Avina and Kelly in particular) when the value of the return is low, or sadly underperformed. If the team is going through a mini rebuild, then keep players who are on top 20-30 prospect lists.

I think the writing has been on the wall. The team will go through a mini rebuilding process. Maximize assets they have, lower costs. Counsell probably knew/saw this. I think the team likely builds around what they have in pitching (Peralta, Ashby, plus Gasser and maybe Junk or McKendy). Add a low end arm or likely 2 to add depth. The expectation from my perspective is that this will resemble the 2017 squad more. And hopefully the prospects pan out and 2025-2026 can rival our 2018-2019 years. This time with Yelich as the “Braun veteran”. Again our next few seasons will hopefully be more offensively driven, and we will have to see if any pitchers develop, but I’m not expecting to see a return to 2021 in house pitching production as that is rare. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more of a bullpen building off-season.

Right. I was stating that there is a completely subjective side to valuing the prospects. Brown has struggled some offensively and Boeve hasn’t been tested. So because he hasn’t had that cold spell I give him more on potential, and his pedigree is strong too being a high round pick. I will not argue that the Black comparison is anything more that recency bias, and that will factor into my equation, and the comparison was more as hit first players who need a defensive home. Brown has the defense and his hit tool is good, but don’t see much power. Biases are always a factor - just like myself and others have been upgrading pitching prospects given the track history in 2019-2021. But no the lack of high end pitching prospects success (Small as one example only) I am downgrading it some. Accurate- absolutely not. But prospect voting is as much bias, and extrapolation, and now analytics as well.

Does anyone know if there has been a write up Corneille in prior write ups? interesting prospect that admittedly I don’t know much about.

EBJ vs Boeve: I think it comes down to how you evaluate prospects. Defense and a defensive home plays a role, but give me tools or a hitting prowess over arm/defense only. I rank Boeve higher because of potential hitting, and some biases (hoping for a Black type of progress). Brown seems like an athlete with good defense but never seen the offensive abilities so far.

This would have been fringe too 10 players in past years given age/potential/production/pedigree combo The farm is much deeper with more tools (speed or hit or defense) then in other years. plus look at the number of teenagers that will make up top 20, with really no prospect over 22-23 yo.

Trade Burnes. And start to build around Frelick, Black, Chourio. If 2023 team couldn’t do much, next year is now far less likely without Woodruff. Still not enough offense to compete with 2024 clubs where offense is back in vogue.

Cursed franchise. 2011 - lost NLCS to a team with crazy momentum. One of the best Brewers teams. 2017 - first playoff birth in sight and lose pitching ace on a freak base hit. 2018 - Chris Taylor freak catch saves game 7 for dodgers. Ugh best offense, elite bullpen. If only the SP from 2020-2021 were not learning to pitch but full fledged SP by this time. 2019 - MVP Yelich breaks kneecap. Grisham error holy curses! 2020 - pandemic 2021 - every hitter goes cold at the same time. One solid hitter in this line up changes everything. 2022 - stearns decides to plan exit strategy and submarines team by dealing Hader 2023 - loss another ace in woodruff ugh.

Jackson Chourio Top 3 prospect in baseball. Fairly consistent all year, and had a monster July.Jeferson Quero Injuries slowed him down, but 20 year old catcher with MLB caliber defense and good hitting at AA. High end prospect.Tyler Black Top hitter all year. Consistent, and got better with moving up the chain. Impressive year!Robert Gasser Consistent - got better as the year progressed. Will be a MLB pitcher, should be a mid to back end rotation arm.Jacob Misiorowski Amazing helium rise. Arm fatigue derailed the end of the season. Struggles against AA raise some question. A good '24 puts him in the top 20 overall prospect list. A poor season sees him as an elite reliever in the future.Brock Wilken Worthy of the first round selection. Held his own in AA months after a CWS run.Carlos F Rodriguez The most consistent arm all year long. Another rotation piece for the future. Had great splits that were not much change pre and post "tacked" ball.Cooper Pratt Excellent debut. Was 2nd/3rd round talent, possible future SS. Lots of potential.Luis Lara Not quite Chourio, but did have an impressive rise like him. Could be at AA by the end of next year. High end hitting, needs power to be top 5 talent in the system.Luke Adams So impressive at A ball as a 19 year old. Most don't hit like he did. Defense a question long term, but power and hitting are so good at such a young age.Mike Boeve Played really well in lower levels, but injury cut season short. Hitting is not a question and he showed some power at the Complex league.Yophery Rodriguez Phenomenal debut for such a young player. Should be State side next year and could be another aggressive move up the minors if he can hold his own.Logan Henderson What a great season. Ace of the Carolina team. But at 21 he should be dominating, need to see him succeed in A+ or AA to rank in the top 10.Dylan O'Rae Spark plug, speed, hitting. Needs a defensive home, but looks like he was a solid draft pick out of nowhere.Eric Bitonti Power and hitting should be for real. Josh Knoth Lots of potential. Hopeful for a strong debut. Will be on the list as a top draft pick, but cannot be in top 10 until he demonstrates success in the minors. Poorly based on potential alone.Eric Brown Jr What a lost season. Defense is great. Hoping he can find his hitting in Fall League or next season.Jadher Areinamo Among the talented teenages in Carolina. Was consistent hitting, power could come as he hit a bunch of 2Bs.Daniel Guilarte Mid season was a borderline top 10-15, but inconsistent in second half dealing with an injury I think.Juan Baez Him or Mendez. Solid list to have these two at 20, as in years past they would be top 15 based upon potential. If Mendez gets back on track he is top 15. Baez can hit, and could move up quickly Based upon age and potential, but this year could factor in the actual results since it was deep enough. Other years would have top picks (Brown, Zamora, Moore) or recent draftees/IFA (DiTurri, Letson, Nadal) given the potential. But so many young players with impressive seasons. The top 6 is legitimately good.

Good points. SO it is really roll the dice this off season and next season. With the Braves and Dodgers likely to be so dominant. The other issue is the emergence of the Cubs and Reds. Best chances are maybe a few years down the road and hope to build around a core of Contreras, Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, Quero, Black, Wilken, Turang, Peralta, Misiorowski, Gasser, C. Rodriguez, Williams, Uribe , and maybe Ashby. That is all assuming these players develop as hoped, but it is still a good list (over half a roster) of young players who could be under control for the next 5-6 years.

With this team so flawed this year and the braves and dodgers so stacked, playoff success this year is basically so unlikely this season. That leaves the question as 1. Do the Brewers have a better chance of getting to NLCS/WS next year with Burnes/Adames/Woodruff and an upgrade in the hitters (FA or trade)? 2. Or is it better to punt on next season, and try to load up for 2025-2027? If the FO thinks they can upgrade the offense this offseason (without screwing over the future), the go for it If not - then trade away and give up on ‘24 and try to find SS and SP in trade market to help build around for ‘25-‘28.

Wow. I will go through withdrawals, at least until AFL. I am so happy I found this site again after a few years away, and the daily minor league reports. Thank you all so much for this. What a great MILB season, look forward to AFL then to next Spring again!!

Losing Counsell could be a big loss The thing I get back to is that this team was one game from the WS without elite pitching. Keeping Peralta and maybe Woodruff possibly could be enough for 2025 on. There will be potential impact hitters (Frelick, Contreras, Chourio, Black, Wilken) to fill out the roster or as trade chips. It was management and coaching that helped will the 2018-2019 teams with less than stellar starting pitching. The bullpen was elite and that’s possible too. So run the core back 1 more year than they transition from a SP/RP team to more hitting and RP led team.

Not every recovery goes as planned. And 20 years ago a shoulder surgery was the end of a career. Now it is a variable recovery, with most players returning within 6-12 months, probably higher end for pitchers. So think of Ashby as playing catch in live games at the what 6 month mark? That is a success right there. Hitters can do pretty well. Most pitchers (67%) recover but only some can be close to pre-surgery (33% of those), and most have a shorter careers ae on average: https://www.arthroscopysportsmedicineandrehabilitation.org/article/S2666-061X(23)00027-5/fulltext It also depends on the type as rotator cuff repairs do poorly, while other can have better outcomes https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23259671221140853 So if he can spend a bulk of next year ensuring the mechanics, strength and control are back, I'm happy to see him in 2024, but if it isn't until 2025 then just having him come back to pre-surgery form will be the goal.

I may be in the minority, but bring back Burnes, Adames and Woodruff and knowing that they are in contract years, see if you can ride that. You lose them for draft picks, but maybe that will be OK seeing that with a larger bonus pool the team is not afraid to go for talent. Will need another bat - what about Pete Alonso? What would the price be for him for on last year of control? Must be less than earlier in the season?

Well, there is the fact that he pitched. At least he was able to get some real live innings. Now the offseason to build up arm strength and learn that control. Hopeful that 2024 can be a recovery year. No need to rush him. If he can learn to pitch effectively let him get back to the bigs in late '24, or more likely in '25. If he can't then this will be a devastating loss to the pitching pipeline, but one that can be overcome with other developing pitchers. Although there fewer high end pitching in the minors than in years past.

Think Lauer has any trade value? There are mlb teams with far less front end talent at the SP position, and he is a AAAA/MLB starter. Owen Miller starts of 2023 reminds me a bit of Jace Petersen 2021 June-July. His cog was during the hot streak. Owen was the only cog during a team wide slump.

Lauet is not impressing to be a MLB option this season. ‘His FB is at least 92.x mph in 6 th. Better than 90-91.